Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

The cause may still be related to Powerplay 2 and how each group of system forces operates:
  • As mentioned, some Powerplay 2 forces are repeating the AX forces chatter lines, which is an indication of shared behaviour.
  • The way Frontier made Powerplay 2 work may have impacted AX forces due to sharing behaviour.
  • The first ever mention of anything such as that comes soon after Powerplay 2 releases, possibly following the effects of its first weekly cycle.
Other ideas very welcome, of course! That is the main and obvious one from me, though.
Oh, I'm pretty sure that if it's not a glitch, it's PP2 related - and I don't like the taste of it (in terms that on the game mechanics level it's possible that all non-pledged commanders counted as pledged to some invisible/hidden power). There is already quite a list of non-power related gameplay bugs that is connected to PP update (interdictions, loot, etc)
 
Final sunset (starset?) at the spire;
spire sunset.jpg

spire sunset 2.jpg

It won't survive to see the dawn.
 
The third one might make it through to Thursday though… potentially.

Although I’m more curious about whether HIP 38235 would end up as a counterstrike system or not before the periphery clearance reaches it (as it is on the opposite side of the control sphere). There is some potential for high gravity planetary shenanigans with 2.38 and 2.41G planetary ports, respectively.
 
The third one might make it through to Thursday though… potentially.

Although I’m more curious about whether HIP 38235 would end up as a counterstrike system or not before the periphery clearance reaches it (as it is on the opposite side of the control sphere). There is some potential for high gravity planetary shenanigans with 2.38 and 2.41G planetary ports, respectively.
I think a lot of Cmdrs got distracted by PP2 squirrels. Not sure how much that will slow progress but this content won't last long.
 
I think a lot of Cmdrs got distracted by PP2 squirrels. Not sure how much that will slow progress but this content won't last long.
I might have thought so if not for the fact that the week of PP2 dropping saw the highest clearance around Cocijo so far. Maybe it was the 7 counterstrike ports (plus the two invasions) which had their own impact on uninhabited clearance but I’m not so sure.

That’s not to say this week was particularly “slow” by any count. It’s probably still on track for some rough 20-ish clearances and an early December vulnerability (provisionally, since we don’t know how or when the Thargoid twist that has been said to be in the works for a few months now, is coming… even winter is more certain).
 
I might have thought so if not for the fact that the week of PP2 dropping saw the highest clearance around Cocijo so far.
I myself was more involved than ever before as the Invasions were great and I cannot be bothered with PP (1 or 2).
I suspect many more who have come back to game are the same.

I couldn't care less about any of the Modules or Rep or Merits until they refine/balance it so that everyone is happy and it motors along (feeling sorry for @Rubbernuke BTW).

I did the 2 Invasions until gone and then now just pick and choose any random Controlled each 1 hr session until rebuy as I have 14B Cr's and I know I will eventually get Mat rewards for either 1 kill or 300 kills in each system I have been to!!!!

AX has never been so great.
 
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Is there already a prediction which systems will be insta-invaded next tick? Or is that entirely random?
At the moment the only two conventional targets are Paitra and Laumas. Paitra is almost certain (requiring the capture of five further specific systems to prevent), Laumas is dependent on the Thargoids keeping control of Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0 and with its current progress there is a chance that they won't.

Additional attacks could of course be added by Frontier anywhere and in any number.
 
Also worth keeping in mind that some counterstrike ports may pop up (though likely not as many as this week, if any), with the caveat that predicting those is not particularly feasible.

But they’re basically identical to invasions minus the mission offerings, so if you’re looking for combat opportunities you might as well go there.

I’m not yet sure we will see anything out of the ordinary until Cocijo is destroyed.
 
Expecting an invasion of Laumas tomorrow, carrier [AXI] Mother Goose is parked near the sun of HIP 37844 and open to all pilots, Shipyard and Outfitting services enabled.
 

Week 103, 14th November 3310​

Maelstrom Cocijo
Control: A reactivated port is at Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69.
Spire: Only Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 remains.
Titan: Coordinate with Operation Thunderstruck for rescue deliveries from Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-18.

Report
Two Invasions defended at Laumas and Paitra.
Twenty Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors KM-V d2-69, VN-H b11-5, US-H b11-2, TS-H b11-2, YY-F b12-0, YT-F b12-6, ZE-P c6-10, XY-F b12-6, ZE-P c6-16, SS-H b11-4, VY-Q c5-18, SS-H b11-0, AF-P c6-0, UN-H b11-5, OS-T d3-136, WY-F b12-5, UN-H b11-3, UN-H b11-4, ZE-P c6-15 and OS-T d3-137.
One Matrix system cleared at Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143.
In addition to the defended Invasions, one recaptured system starting Recovery is Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69.

Targets updated at 06:30 21st November 3310
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17 Control 76% — Cocijo 16 Ly, 1699 strength
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6 Control 60% — Cocijo 23 Ly, 2682 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69 Control 36% — Cocijo 23 Ly, 4291 strength
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-19 Control 26% — Cocijo 5 Ly
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-10 Control 24% *24.2%Cocijo 15 Ly, 5407 strength
Qinganu Control 22% *23.2%Cocijo 9 Ly
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6 Control 22% — Cocijo 18 Ly, 5443 strength
HIP 38235 Control 18% *18.3%Cocijo 21 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-126 Control 12% — Cocijo 14 Ly, 6334 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-92 Control 10% *11.1%Cocijo 15 Ly, 6323 strength
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-8 Control 6% *6.2%Cocijo 10 Ly, 6949 strength
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-0 Control 6% — Cocijo 23 Ly, 6311 strength
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-11 Control 4% *4.6%Cocijo 11 Ly, 7015 strength
Nyani Control 4% *4.6%Cocijo 7 Ly
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-5 Control 4% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 6528 strength
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5 Control 4% — Cocijo 20 Ly, 6565 strength
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-53 Control 2% *3.5%Cocijo 22 Ly, 6484 strength
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-0 Control 2% *3%Cocijo 14 Ly, 6993 strength
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7 Control 2% *2.6%Cocijo 18 Ly, 6799 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-95 Control 2% *2.1%Cocijo 16 Ly, 6950 strength
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-19 Control 2% *2.1%Cocijo 7 Ly, 7410 strength
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1 Control 2% — Cocijo 13 Ly, 7104 strength
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-4 Control 2% — Cocijo 7 Ly, 7405 strength

Notes
The only remaining sources for Tactical Core Chips are Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 and HIP 38235.
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 102, 7th November 3310​

Report
Two Invasions defended at Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11 and Picenile.
Twenty-two Control evictions at Desurinbin, Col 285 Sectors WY-F b12-3, XT-Q c5-6, AF-P c6-1, WY-F b12-1, ZE-P c6-21, XY-F b12-1, AU-F b12-3, VN-H b11-0, AU-F b12-5, OS-T d3-117, VD-G b12-0, UN-H b11-6, AU-F b12-2 and TS-H b11-1, Ulche, Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2, Mahlina, Kurumanit and HIPs 36901, 39750 and 38718.
One Matrix system cleared at Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-18.
In addition to the defended Invasions, eight recaptured systems starting Recovery are Desurinbin, Col 285 Sectors WY-F b12-3, WY-F b12-1, ZE-P c6-21 and OS-T d3-117, Ulche, Mahlina and Kurumanit.
 
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An interesting map at Cocijo this week
Cocijo-edges.png
All of Cocijo's possible attacks next week are coming off the five systems on the left of the picture, to the six inhabited systems off cooldown there. Meanwhile, other action has left big blocks in the right and upper right which can't target anything and don't have any inhabited systems still in them either. With the remaining active spire unlikely to last very much longer, and only one reactivated port this time, there's a lot of unpredictability in what happens during and at the end of this week.


Meanwhile, as the number of total systems reduces, the extent to which Frontier would have to introduce increasingly large surprises to delay the attack further rises.
Number of recaptures30+20-2915-1912-14
Vulnerable from28 November5 December12 December19 December
 
Expecting an invasion of Laumas tomorrow, carrier [AXI] Mother Goose is parked near the sun of HIP 37844 and open to all pilots, Shipyard and Outfitting services enabled.
Yep, Laumas Invasion at nearly 50% now, but at Hoffman port you cannot get Limpets, however, if you do space AX CZ's you rebuy at Cady Port Outpost which has Limpets. (I am fairly rubbish and just do pew pew until rebuy or just repair a little so do need limpets)
However in Open at Hoffman, there are loads of CMDR's and great fun getting to finish the 2 Hydra's with the experts.

The other Invasion at Paitra is only on about 10% so may last to Friday. Then back to AXCZ in Controls for me.
 
Laumas is finished.
Counterstrike Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-69 on a good way (88% rn).
After that, the proverbial air grows thin.
That other invasion system only has a space outpost.
None of the remaining occupied systems have any starport.
Guess that's it with AX ground CZs then, save for upcoming snap invasions.
 
Cocijo does still have a few formerly human-occupied systems under its control (including HIP 38235 mentioned above as one of the remaining sources for Tactical Core Chips), so it's not quite done in that regard yet.
 
Cocijo does still have a few formerly human-occupied systems under its control (including HIP 38235 mentioned above as one of the remaining sources for Tactical Core Chips), so it's not quite done in that regard yet.
Ooer.
See, I completely missed that due to my summer break. Didn't even know this mod existed, much less did I ever gather mats for it. Dayum!
What exactly do you need to do gather the required mats?
 
So, in my continuing march of being a busybody, went over to check the last two taranis systems.
No conflict zones visible in either 25654 or Swahku, so, grabbed the conda to re-check numbers.
Code:
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T09:31:00Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"HIP 25654", [...] "WarProgress":0.246821,
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T10:11:43Z", "event":"Cargo", "Vessel":"Ship", "Count":154 }
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T10:20:53Z", "event":"MarketSell", "MarketID":129020287, "Type":"thargoidscouttissuesample", "Type_Localised":"Thargoid Scout Tissue Sample", "Count":154, "SellPrice":1628, "TotalSale":250712, "AvgPricePaid":0 }
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T11:04:36Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"HIP 25654", [...] "WarProgress":0.252810,

Second batch to verify -
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T11:42:07Z", "event":"MarketSell", "MarketID":129020287, "Type":"thargoidscouttissuesample", "Type_Localised":"Thargoid Scout Tissue Sample", "Count":152, "SellPrice":1628, "TotalSale":247456, "AvgPricePaid":0 }
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T11:48:34Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"HIP 25654", [...] "WarProgress":0.252810,
Post hour's update results,
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T12:13:01Z", "event":"Location", - "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"HIP 25654", [...] "WarProgress":0.258721,

0.252810 - 0.246821 = 0.005989 for 154 samples, 0.258721 - 0.252810 = 0.005911 for 152.
To get from 0 to 1.0001xx, system complete for 25654 would thus require... 25718 samples, down to ~19065 with the 0.258721 so far.

On to the ex-inhabited system.
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T12:22:10Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Swahku", [...] "WarProgress":0.154955,
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T12:59:52Z", "event":"MarketSell", "MarketID":129020287, "Type":"thargoidscouttissuesample", "Type_Localised":"Thargoid Scout Tissue Sample", "Count":149, "SellPrice":1628, "TotalSale":242572, "AvgPricePaid":0 }
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T13:15:47Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Swahku", [...] "WarProgress":0.154967
-- gonna assume that was too early.
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T14:17:38Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Swahku", [...] "WarProgress":0.159698, 1x scout kill was in that period (13-14:00) so, second batch delivered After the hour to ensure I didn't pollute it..
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T14:09:04Z", "event":"MarketSell", "MarketID":129020287, "Type":"thargoidscouttissuesample", "Type_Localised":"Thargoid Scout Tissue Sample", "Count":152, "SellPrice":1628, "TotalSale":247456, "AvgPricePaid":0 }
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T15:19:40Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Swahku", [...] "WarProgress":0.159698,
{ "timestamp":"2024-11-16T15:27:29Z", "event":"Location", - "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Swahku", [...] "WarProgress":0.164561,

0.159698 - 0.154967 = 0.004731 for 149 samples,
0.164561 - 0.159698 = 0.004863 for 152 samples, which worked out as fewer samples required overall - so, going with the 149.
0.004731*211.4=1.0001334, or 31,499 samples for 100.01%, rounding up the .6 of a sample.

So unless there was exceptionally consistent assist each hour, Swahku would comfortably take ~5,500k more to shift compared to 25654, going 0-100%.

Neat to have numbers, unfortunate they're quite as high as that - and that they're more necessary given the dearth of conflict zones - but hey.
 
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