I get all my tea as loose leaf.
General / Off-Topic The Covid vaccine must be mandatory ?
- Thread starter Patrick_68000
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Yep. You wont get far in this World telling the truth, unless you wrap it in fancy cellofane and perfume.
It's kind of the same with the numbers I'm currently watching closely, being the hospitalisations in South Africa. They haven't been updated since 27. Nov.
COVID-19 Data Explorer
Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems
ourworldindata.org
In Denmark we test a lot, and we sequence a lot of positives. Here the number of Omicron cases grow exponentially with a doubling time of roughly two days, and we have community spread. Yesterday the number of Omicron cases were 137.
This is not a drill. Things will change radically over the next months. Honestly, with the data we have, there is no clear indication that Omicron is mild (it's mostly wishful thinking like always), but it sure is contagious, even in a population with a high degree of immunity. Also the South Africa hospitalisations in the OWID link above has started rising, and they are two weeks old.
Take care out there, and good luck to all of you!
Edit: I hope y'all vaccinated, because the vaccine needs time to become efficient after inoculation.
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Interesting quote from Mahatma Ghandi who is quoted by the anti-vaxxers for what he once thought about smallpox vaccination :
"I cant sleep. These kiddies are fading away like little buds. I feel the weight of their deaths on my shoulders. I prevailed upon their parents not to get them vaccinated. Now the children are passing away. It may be, I am afraid, the result of my ignorance and obstinacy; and so I feel very unhappy."
"I cant sleep. These kiddies are fading away like little buds. I feel the weight of their deaths on my shoulders. I prevailed upon their parents not to get them vaccinated. Now the children are passing away. It may be, I am afraid, the result of my ignorance and obstinacy; and so I feel very unhappy."
The big problem seems to be that from the available data, an awful lot more Omicron cases are reinfections of people who had antibodies from previous infection, which should in a sane world be the final nail in the coffin (perhaps a poor choice of words) to the idea of mass infection as a viable strategy for quickly developing population immunity...
And that is why I have zero sympathy for anti-vaxxers. They are not only using up resources they didn't have to use. They are wearing out our doctors with their nonsense. If they believe their crap so much they should just start their own "hospitals" and dole out the treatment they want to themselves. If there's so many of them, funding shouldn't be a problem. Put your money where your loudmouths are morons.
There is actually a rather large immunity in the population around the world, but it decreases over time, and it does seem that it is less efficient against Omicron. We are getting used to "the daily numbers", and often forget that the true number of infections is much larger than the number of positive tests. Even in Denmark, with most testing being done per capita, the number of daily infections is probably 10-30 times higher than the numbers. That actually changes a lot in our understanding of the pandemic. The IFR for one is much lower than what you get if you just divide deaths by positives. That might be worth remembering when hell breaks lose.
The problem with Covid-19 doesn't seem to be that it's very deadly, as early data indicated back at the start of the pandemic (like >20%). The problem seems to be that it's very contagious, causing many infections, and even though only a small percentage become seriously ill, they have a much better chance of surviving when treated, and because the global population has become so large, even a small percentage is a lot of people. That is why every government around the globe is concerned about hospitals not being able to cope, because no treatment increase the fatality (dramatically, as seen in India).
This was mostly before Omicron, which seems to be a game changer. If it's mild, it could be a potential savior from Mother Nature. If it's not, we are up the creek without a paddle. Right now you can flip a coin to see which one it will be.
Except ours, who have been happy to run at the highest levels our healthcare system can possibly cope with without exceeding capacity, effectively applying the logic of "just-in-time" supply chains to healthcare, assuming that if we match supply and demand that's the optimum situation, as if there's no conceivable scenario where demand might increase and we don't have the capacity to meet it...
Notice that the last data point is one week old. ICU also rising at same rate.
I wonder when someone will realize the severity of the current situation. Right now they are just poking it with a stick.
That's a weekly report chart, so all data points are a week apart. But that is really obviously not the important thing!
(Waving frantically! )
The epidemiologists know, judging by their expostulations on Twitter. Gauteng province data vs other provinces gives a
Because it is much more infectious, and is now established as recombinant capable, it can mutate at an unprecedented rate in HIV populous southern Africa, who have intercurrent infection chronically with Lord knows what RNA viruses nobody else knows from exotic species exposure, but because that population has a median age of 24 years, fatalities there may be way too low to alert watchers elsewhere.
Thymus gland involutes in humans, losing function from the 20's going forward. After 65-70, immunity falls off a cliff. So vaccination effects wear off exactly in the wrong place, the increasingly gullible elderly.
I shall be glad to be wrong this time. Fortunately, it is not easy to predict, making error larger.
I've also been looking at the daily reports:
If you scroll down you find ICU, daily admissions, current admissions etc. on daily basis. SA numbers drop during the weekend, but their positivity rate seems pretty solid. It's at 29% nationwide now. If you plot the daily positivity rate you clearly see when Omicron started showing up through the layer of Delta infections.
Log scale. T0 = nov 1. The delay from when infections started rising, until the hospital numbers did is roughly 2-3 weeks, but as you said the dates in these data slide somewhat.
Edit: The data in table
Date | NICD daily report adm | Oxygen | Current admit | ICU |
04-12-21 | 110 | 475 | 3255 | 283 |
05-12-21 | 28 | 473 | 3268 | 278 |
06-12-21 | 175 | 510 | 3517 | 308 |
07-12-21 | 383 | 542 | 3798 | 354 |
08-12-21 | 374 | 622 | 4252 | 374 |
09-12-21 | 453 | 662 | 4795 | 398 |
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Latest things from the UK - they reckon the omicron infections are doubling every 2 days and will be the dominant strain by next week. It's a fast mover ...
Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS
www.theguardian.com
The Scottish govt released an evidence paper https://www.gov.scot/publications/omicron-scotland-evidence-paper/
We've had up to 2000 cases recently, now suddenly 5000, and the projection graph based on that current 5000 cases (which WAS the upper end of worse case) is 15000 daily cases plus in 2 weeks. In a country with 5 million people.
Thanks for the data.Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS
The Scottish govt released an evidence paper https://www.gov.scot/publications/omicron-scotland-evidence-paper/
We've had up to 2000 cases recently, now suddenly 5000, and the projection graph based on that current 5000 cases (which WAS the upper end of worse case) is 15000 daily cases plus in 2 weeks. In a country with 5 million people.
Had a poke through.
Because the Scottish scientists are using S-gene dropout to ID the variant, they are going to miss the Omicron Jr.
It's possibly even worse than they are predicting, since there's no tracking of the other version.
But the work is very solid, better than anything we have put out in public here in Trinidad, and the quick use of the tech is commendable.
Don't have any feedback locally, except a statement that "we can test for it." which isn't even so much as "we are looking for it". The Central govt just lost control of Tobago in a snap election, and they have pulled back on unpopular measures for non-medical reasons. They are going to HAVE to react eventually.
27th Nov to 10th Dec is umm... 2 weeks. You saying it takes over from DELTA in 3 weeks?
No wonder all the epidemiologists are pooping bricks.
Hit the bakery, and loaded up on cakes, Gingerbread men, local specialties. That might be it for Christmas this year, but it's still going to be good, if we all survive.
I hope the rest of you good people are all prepped already, because we are likely going to be in bunkers soon.
Since everybody is likely to catch Omicron, we might well consider defensive measures that can upgrade survival chances. The ideal thing is to become younger. Is that possible?
In animal studies, removing senescent cells seems to mitigate the disease, and if done prior to vaccination, senolysis also upregulates the provoked immune reaction.
Medical senolytic drugs are in Phase 2 trials. They are not approved for safe use. Therefore, I can't reccomend them. Treatment is "hit and run" where meds are given for a day or two, and repeated again much later. Optimum regimens for humans are not yet determined.
However, there are commonly available supplements that can do senolysis. Procyanidin is found in grapeseed extract, for instance, and it's quite cheap. Also categorised as GRAS, or "generally recognised as safe". At low doses, grapeseed extract suppresses the secretions from senescent cells. At high doses it wipes them out better and with fewer exceptions and practically zero toxicity compared to synthetic drugs.
Antibiotics can cause senolysis, such as Minocin and Zithromax. So can Digoxin, a very old heart medication. All of those have long track records with well established safe dosages. They could theoretically be combined, but we have no human trial data.
It's very unlikely that using grapeseed extract would cause any harm. And it might potentially help. Most of this work was done at Mayo Clinic, USA.
There are additional biochemical features that are very favorable.
www.nature.com
In animal studies, removing senescent cells seems to mitigate the disease, and if done prior to vaccination, senolysis also upregulates the provoked immune reaction.
Medical senolytic drugs are in Phase 2 trials. They are not approved for safe use. Therefore, I can't reccomend them. Treatment is "hit and run" where meds are given for a day or two, and repeated again much later. Optimum regimens for humans are not yet determined.
However, there are commonly available supplements that can do senolysis. Procyanidin is found in grapeseed extract, for instance, and it's quite cheap. Also categorised as GRAS, or "generally recognised as safe". At low doses, grapeseed extract suppresses the secretions from senescent cells. At high doses it wipes them out better and with fewer exceptions and practically zero toxicity compared to synthetic drugs.
Antibiotics can cause senolysis, such as Minocin and Zithromax. So can Digoxin, a very old heart medication. All of those have long track records with well established safe dosages. They could theoretically be combined, but we have no human trial data.
They showed that human senescent cells have an amplified response to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) protein, provoking increased production of factors causing inflammation and tissue damage by senescent cells.
They also found that older mice infected with viruses, including a coronavirus related to SARS-CoV-2, showed an amplified reaction, with increased senescent cells, inflammation and nearly 100 percent mortality. When the researchers treated similar mice – before or after the infection – with senolytics, drugs that selectively remove senescent cells from the body, the result was the opposite. Antiviral antibodies increased, while signs of inflammation and senescent cells significantly decreased along with mortality, so survival of the old, infected mice became more like that of younger mice.
They also found that older mice infected with viruses, including a coronavirus related to SARS-CoV-2, showed an amplified reaction, with increased senescent cells, inflammation and nearly 100 percent mortality. When the researchers treated similar mice – before or after the infection – with senolytics, drugs that selectively remove senescent cells from the body, the result was the opposite. Antiviral antibodies increased, while signs of inflammation and senescent cells significantly decreased along with mortality, so survival of the old, infected mice became more like that of younger mice.
It's very unlikely that using grapeseed extract would cause any harm. And it might potentially help. Most of this work was done at Mayo Clinic, USA.
There are additional biochemical features that are very favorable.
- inhibits CD38, preserving NAD levels from breakdown
- upregulates expression of NAMPT enzyme, resynthesizing more NAD
Dietary proanthocyanidins boost hepatic NAD+ metabolism and SIRT1 expression and activity in a dose-dependent manner in healthy rats - Scientific Reports
Proanthocyanidins (PACs) have been reported to modulate multiple targets by simultaneously controlling many pivotal metabolic pathways in the liver. However, the precise mechanism of PAC action on the regulation of the genes that control hepatic metabolism remains to be clarified. Accordingly...
www.nature.com
Natural dietary polyphenols and specifically proanthocyanidins (PACs), the most structurally complex subclass of flavonoids, are bioactive food compounds that are primarily present in fruits and vegetables and exhibit many protective effects against cardiovascular disease1. In this context, our group and others have reported many healthy and beneficial effects of PACs on different metabolic syndrome-related pathologies, such as insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, obesity, hypertension and inflammation
More data from SA. The hospitalisations, oxygenation and ICU are now rising faster than ever before during the pandemic:
Omicron is NOT mild. Thanks for all the fish!
Omicron is NOT mild. Thanks for all the fish!
What's the x-axis here? Days of year 2021?More data from SA. The hospitalisations, oxygenation and ICU are now rising faster than ever before during the pandemic:
View attachment 280994
Omicron is NOT mild. Thanks for all the fish!
Sorry, the x-axis is days, starting with February 8th. 2021
Remember, this is a pandemic, which means global. It's not good. On the other hand, one could hope that the global population immunity will rise considerably over the next month. We still cannot see how deadly this thing is, but if it's equal to Delta, then this is potentially very bad for a couple of months, and then herd immunity should become strong enough to stabilize it, for a considerable future. It's scary, but it's not the end of the World. Our biggest problem will be keeping society up and running, because a large part of the population will be ill at the peak, depending on booster shot percentage etc.
Take care out there. I wish my VR spaceship was a real spaceship. Then I'd leave the planet for a couple of months.
Remember, this is a pandemic, which means global. It's not good. On the other hand, one could hope that the global population immunity will rise considerably over the next month. We still cannot see how deadly this thing is, but if it's equal to Delta, then this is potentially very bad for a couple of months, and then herd immunity should become strong enough to stabilize it, for a considerable future. It's scary, but it's not the end of the World. Our biggest problem will be keeping society up and running, because a large part of the population will be ill at the peak, depending on booster shot percentage etc.
Take care out there. I wish my VR spaceship was a real spaceship. Then I'd leave the planet for a couple of months.
... when uncertain how to proceed, ask yourself-What would Batman do?
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