Trading and the background simulation Issues [ Backwards Trading ]
- Thread starter FX2K
- Start date
Yes, actually it feels like...
Two Adders and a Hauler waiting for not so rare goods...
Two Adders and a Hauler waiting for not so rare goods...
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I'm looking at the results of work of this artificial "intelligence" right now: station - Mackenzie Relay in Cemiess - has high demand for slaves with average price 10800 credits per ton. These guys are agree to buy slaves for 5900 credits per ton! Minimum selling price in nearby systems is 10300 credits. And this system is being advertised in news feed (as source of good deals apparently)...
How about returning rare goods while you are fixing this "intelligence"? Apparently it will take weeks and months because 4+ months of beta and gamma test weren't enough to make trading interesting.
Not sure how that attitude is necessary...he is not answering you so I thought I'd take a stab. How about some constructive response so we can discuss possibilities while we wait for an official response instead of this trite and pointless remark.
It is fairly clear to me that there is an oversupply issue and my strategies have altered in response...with success. So take that with a giant grain of salt, if you must.
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This thread is not related to profits or making money like some other threads, this is about over-saturation and the background simulation.
I respectfully ask that you refrain from posting just to state how easy you can make money, Thanks.
Tonight I went to a random system and recorded the following information which highlights a few issues surrounding trading in the current release version of Elite Dangerous. I did not look hard for this, it is still the case in numerous systems.
I visited a system named PULARUNGU, an industrial system with a population of 4.4 million.
This system contains a station Berezin Enterprise and outpost Cixin Ring.
I noticed the error I had previously posted about whereby the system imports Liquor yet has a High Supply, in both stations.
Berezin:
Cixin:
So, both stations have a HIGH supply of Liquor and a 0 LOW demand, they also show as importing this from Wakawal.
The galaxy map shows a trade route from Wakawal to Pularungu for Liquor.
So, I travelled to Wakawal an Agricultural/Industrial Economy and visited each station, it has three, only one of which is the supplier (supposedly).
Olsen Terminal: (Agri - supplier)
Virts Gateway: (industrial)
Good Ring: (industrial)
Ok, so now the fun part... I apologise if I have missed anything or mis-calculated anything here (it is 3am after all)
The exporter - Olsen had MEDIUM supply.
The importer - Berezin and Cixin had HIGH supply
Buy from Olsen (The exporters) @ 535 cr per tonne
* Sell to Berezin or Cixin (where they export to) @ 455cr per tonne = 80cr loss per tonne.
* Sell to Virts: 666cr = 131cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Good: 661cr = 126cr profit per tonne.
Buy from Berezin or Cixin (The importers) @ 475cr per tonne
* Sell to Olsen: 508cr = 33cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Virts: 666cr = 191cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Good: 661cr = 186cr profit per tonne.
1) Trading from supplier to consumer in a different system (following trade route - agricultural to industrial)
LOSS: 80cr per tonne
2) Trading from supplier to consumer in the same system (normal - agricultural to industrial)
PROFIT: 131cr per tonne
3) Trading from consumer to supplier (backwards industrial to agricultural)
PROFIT: 33cr per tonne.
4) Trading from consumer to consumer (industrial to industrial)
PROFIT: 191cr per tonne
Surely (1) should be more profitable than (3) or (4) in fact (3) and (4) should not exist IMO.
(2) is the only route which actually makes sense, but less profit than the alternative (4)
Here is the traffic report for one system, just for reference:
I hope this gets fixed...this is not the only system or commodity like this.
Why would you expect profit in the two station that have a high supply? sure they are "normally importers" but it makes no sense for you to get paid well compared to stations with NONE of the commodity.
i do NOt think trade backround sim is broken i think that the descriptors of station trading is broekn or static and does not change.
for example YES the stations are always importers of liquor since they USE it.. BUT there is a high supply of it on hand at the moment. you would think the games discription of the system would change due to the high supply but it does not. the trade system DOES however work. since you are getting low payout for an item that said station has a high supply of.
so TRADE is working correctly .. what is broken is the descriptors set to the stations, i assume these are static, since stations will always import an item statically, even if demand is low... so what needs to change is the discription of station in galactic map and show the DEMAND, not the stations static discriptors
Michael Brookes
Game Director
Where the AI's have been over-zealous creates an imbalance and because of the mechanism used means that some markets that should only import will get flooded and end up exporting. However if you look at the trade route data you'll see lots of trade in that direction, but the price sucks. Making the AI behave should put the markets back to where they're supposed to be.
Thanks to the players who provided us with the hard data - it helped us find this!
Michael
You think you've squashed this one Mr.B?
It sounds like a solution is near...
As I suspected. Thanks Michael!
It seems there are multiple scenarios that cause this sort of bug, which is why we saw this in Gamma and now. Anything in particular that we should look out for that might indicate this issues is cropping back up?
But, but... I'm making so much money on those glitches, please stop reporting...
Hehe, just kidding ;-)
I log each of the ~25 stations I trade with in excel - complete recording of demand/supply - low/med/high.
While I'm not doing this to identify errors in the system, they do show up and are hard to overlook. I've seen what you're posting.
Also, since the station/npc reset, 95% of everything in *most* stations I use sits at medium supply/demand.
Maybe it just takes longer to develop more variation, or the NPC trading is actually supposed to keep things around the middle.
Hehe, just kidding ;-)
I log each of the ~25 stations I trade with in excel - complete recording of demand/supply - low/med/high.
While I'm not doing this to identify errors in the system, they do show up and are hard to overlook. I've seen what you're posting.
Also, since the station/npc reset, 95% of everything in *most* stations I use sits at medium supply/demand.
Maybe it just takes longer to develop more variation, or the NPC trading is actually supposed to keep things around the middle.
I may be misunderstanding, but it sounds like what you are suggesting is that one day an ore refinery 'refines ore' and the next day, because it bought too much food, it closes down the ore mine and calls itself Tescos, changing all machinery and equipment for checkout's and trolleys. Once the food has run out, it opens its doors as a refinery again.
When in fact... if it has bought to much food, it should stop buying it, simple.
Of course, systems / stations can / maybe will evolve.. but not in such a short time span. I would expect such things to happen over long periods of time if they do.
Fingers crossed and thanks for looking into it
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I think, that for just that example, things are working correctly. The princess is freeing slaves and I don't think this is good for the health of the slave market in her system.
I just visited an agricultural system that exported a lot of coffee to neighbouring industrial systems. The price for coffee in ALL industrial systems was LOWER (at HIGH demand) than the price to buy the coffee in the producing system at HIGH supply.
Doesn't make a lot of sense and I see stuff like this quite often. I basically stopped trading until these kind of issues are fixed.
Doesn't make a lot of sense and I see stuff like this quite often. I basically stopped trading until these kind of issues are fixed.
I hope it's all related, but these are the kind of things i'm concerned about, lots of demand but lousy prices...
That's an order for 1.7 million tons of synthetic fabrics, and it's listed as medium demand:
View attachment 5222
103000 counts as low demand:
View attachment 5223
That's an order for 1.7 million tons of synthetic fabrics, and it's listed as medium demand:
View attachment 5222
103000 counts as low demand:
View attachment 5223
Unfortunately it has been this screwed up since Gamma 1.0. End of Beta, end of logical trading and really making any good money.
Just my last snippet of info, as promised from post #4..
I realise this has already been investigated, but since it was low qty, I could see it happen and screenshot it, just a few extra things to add which I noticed.
Demand @ 1:23am - 49 Low
Demand @ 1:45am - 49 Low but 30cr less on the sell to market price when I returned loaded.
So I sold 190t and satisfied the demand and then some.
15 minutes later, they now have 288 HIGH supply, 147 more than I supplied (taking into consideration the demand) and of course the price has dropped significantly.
30 mins later, a mission appears on the bulletin board, apparently they still need personal weapons.
They appear to consume 1 of the weapons within that 30 minutes:
I realise this has already been investigated, but since it was low qty, I could see it happen and screenshot it, just a few extra things to add which I noticed.
Demand @ 1:23am - 49 Low
Demand @ 1:45am - 49 Low but 30cr less on the sell to market price when I returned loaded.
So I sold 190t and satisfied the demand and then some.
15 minutes later, they now have 288 HIGH supply, 147 more than I supplied (taking into consideration the demand) and of course the price has dropped significantly.
30 mins later, a mission appears on the bulletin board, apparently they still need personal weapons.
They appear to consume 1 of the weapons within that 30 minutes:
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ShadowGar
Banned
Isn't there also an additional issue here that the interface isn't reflecting what's actually happening on the market, or have I misunderstood?
Not in my opinion, well to an extent but others may disagree.
The way I see it is an industrial station which consumes liquor should not change to a liquor supplier / producer and start exporting the goods just because they bought in too much of the item. Instead, they should refuse to purchase excessive amounts. Demand should dictate whether they buy or not.
If they only want 50, they should only buy 50 and tell you to go elsewhere to sell the rest.
With no demand, then perhaps the UI should drop the 'imports from' flag until demand rises again, if it does at all.
Likewise, a supplier with no stock is obviously unable to export, so shouldn't be showing the export flag.
However, it currently seems like its the price dictating this rather than the demand and since AI don't seem to care about prices, unlike a player, situations like this arise allowing the AI to continue supplying so therefore the export information is correct still, just not from a players perspective.
Perhaps stations could evolve over time as needs in a system change a refinery may shut down and become <something else>..if its programmed that way, but in such a short period of time.. IMO, it's unlikely.
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It depends on whether the chicken is before the cart...or did the horse come first or the egg as to what causes what here.
If the meta-data about what a station does is WRONG...then the AI (which I assume use this data) will cause havoc by then following the rules.
Or...the other way around...if AI trade is nuts...they are taking metals to an extraction for no good reason and then the dynamic system isn't updating properly...then that too could cause this mess.
For me...I know that right now economies are borked...and unless you are happy finding 1-2 runs to 'grind' trading is a bit...pfffffft.
So...in the meantime...i will play at shooting stuff...and leave my Lakon money in the bank till this is betterer.
If the meta-data about what a station does is WRONG...then the AI (which I assume use this data) will cause havoc by then following the rules.
Or...the other way around...if AI trade is nuts...they are taking metals to an extraction for no good reason and then the dynamic system isn't updating properly...then that too could cause this mess.
For me...I know that right now economies are borked...and unless you are happy finding 1-2 runs to 'grind' trading is a bit...pfffffft.
So...in the meantime...i will play at shooting stuff...and leave my Lakon money in the bank till this is betterer.