Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

I would expect that if the progress bar is all the way across by next week then all the Ports will go up a grade as they did this week. Any abandoned ones will come online, any damaged ones will become less damaged and any stations that were only just attacked are fully restored (as Wakata is now). Recovery in 3w 4d would then be the time until all the Ports are fully operational again, assuming the progress bar is moved all the way over each week. If it is allowed to lapse back into Thargoid control by doing nothing then that's on us.

It's possible that NPCs could continue with repairs but I wouldn't like to leave it to chance. We will know more when we see these states fully play out, until then what seems the most logical thing to do seems to work.
From an accuracy perspective, this would be the best way. One week to repair and bring online all stations/ports seems a bit unrealistic but one per week definitely is.
 
I expect there are cmdrs happy to be lead in the way you describe. As it stands today we are evaluating… we’ve only seen what we have seen and are trying to understand what’s needed.
 
AXI seems to have different targets than what is posted in the top of this thread.
Might I suggest aligning the goals?

I will follow actual progress, so alignment will occur where progress occurs, which I have just updated at the top of the thread.

The best case by far is if we can get end-of-cycle target choices from any/all interested organisations, declared by around Tuesday–Wednesday. Thanks go to AXI for their action, with the understanding that 13:24 on Thursday is a too late declaration for the rest of the Galaxy! The end-of-cycle downtime is exactly when Commanders need some form of direction for the next one.
 
This week is a very good week to work around the Oya maelstrom, there's quite a few large population invasion systems (several with mat traders and/or FC admin) with fully functional starports that can supply commodities to fill each other's missions. By next week those starports will likely be under attack and no longer have their commodities markets open.
 

Week 3, 15th December 3308​

Targets updated at 19:30 15th December 3308
Vukurbeh Alert – 12%
HIP 25679 Invasion – 10%
Imeut Invasion – 4%
Arawa Invasion – 4%
Ebisu Invasion – 4%
63 Eridani Invasion – 2%
HIP 38235 is also in Alert state since today evening.
 
Progress updated; a spot of Invasion effort at Lahua has appeared, as has Recovery effort at HIP 23716.


HIP 38235 is also in Alert state since today evening.
True, as are many systems! I can only see Alert progress at Vukurbeh (20%) for the moment, though.

You can't make informed decisions without knowing where the new alert systems are (which isn't known until after the tick).
Invasion, Controlled and Recovery systems are known perfectly, though. That also covers everything—delivery, evacuation and combat. Of course delivery efforts should be moved to Alert systems ahead of Recovery if it is important to do so, but otherwise it makes no sense to withhold everything on account of that.
 

Week 3, 15th December 3308​

Targets updated at 21:30 15th December 3308
Vukurbeh Alert – 20%
HIP 25679 Invasion – 14%
Imeut Invasion – 6%
Awara Invasion – 6%
Ebisu Invasion – 6%
63 Eridani Invasion – 2%
Lahua Invasion – 2%
HIP 23716 Recovery – 2%

Notes
HIP 23716 has entered Recovery for four weeks, and appears to need deliveries.
Three additional Maelstroms are present; one below Khun and two bordering Imperial space.

Week 2, 8th December 3308​

Report
HIP 23716 was defended from Invasion.
Alert was repelled in HIP 20485.

Week 3 summary post




Alert systems

Cargo delivery has a strong effect (source).
Passenger evacuation has a weak effect (source).
Combat is limited to hunting occasional signal sources, though is the only possible action if no starports are present.

Invasion systems

The effect of Cargo delivery is not yet measured/compared.
Passenger evacuation has a strong effect, especially wounded and critically wounded from inactive starports (source).
Combat is plentiful at conflict zones and starports under attack.

Recovery systems

Cargo delivery is the only possible action.

Controlled systems

Combat is the only possible action.





With HIP 23716 and HIP 20485 secured, and while everyone is on downtime due to an arbitrary progress wipe, where next should effort be directed?

Taking a cursory glance around the Maelstroms:
  • M. Cocijo (by Jackson's Lighthouse) has minimal attention, just one progress point in the Mapon system.
  • M. Taranis (by Meene) has a quite notable effort in 63 Eridani and Imeut, plus a little in Ebisu, Awara and HIP 25679.
  • M. Indra (Pleiades direction) has a point at HIP 20916.
  • M. Oya (up by Alioth) has a point at Lahua.
  • M. Leigong (below) has two points at Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94 and one at Obassi Osaw.
All of those are Invasion systems; no other Alert system nor any Controlled system seems to have any attention. If I may point out a couple of general observations:
  • Controlled systems require combat exclusively, Alert systems in effect require support exclusively¹, and Invasion systems accept both.
  • The scattering of effort above plus the effort potential during downtime could have been combined to win a third system.
Therefore:
  • Supposing momentarily that combat and support aggregates are equal, it seems to me that the combat effort could start at a Controlled system and support effort at an Alert system, both then meeting up at an Invasion system after the former two are secured.
  • In practice, the rapid completion of HIP 20485 suggests to me that support efforts are superior and might best be focused entirely on containment via securing the Alert systems, while combat efforts retake Controlled systems one by one, perhaps only considering one Invasion target per progress wipe if both efforts will have a surplus which can be combined to do that.
  • If it is important to stop an Invasion then we could begin with one Invasion target, though I imagine that would risk poor surplus management unless we focus only on Invasion targets.
I have no personal system preference as long as the efforts are consolidated, and I am actually wondering whether a formal decision process² might be useful. M. Taranis is the closest general threat and seems like a natural popular choice, with M. Cocijo likely becoming a strong secondary due to its proximity to Jackson's Lighthouse and Deciat, though it would be best if we have specific target ideas ahead of time. Thoughts, ideas, preferences?


1. I know it says that destroying Thargoid craft helps with an Alert system, however in practice I could find no attacks nor conflict zones there, only sporadic signal sources several thousand light-seconds apart. That is objectively not a good use of pilots providing combat effort.

2. Longer-term, it is not beyond the capacity of Imperial Navy Intervention and Rescue to implement an actual Patronage system for this. The idea would be to allow individual Commanders to set their preferred targets, or just to assign their support to an organisation which chooses targets on behalf of all of its supporters, and report the highest-weight targets. If the progress wipe were to stop then such would become immediately less necessary of course, though perhaps nice to have.
I think it's a bad strategy.

We must concentrate our efforts on stopping the alerts, which will be future invasions.

The progression will be stopped and we will have less invasion states. If we continue as usual, we will lose many systems to save just one.

His progression is almost exponential, and our defense is linear. We must stop their progression... before it's too late.
 
I think it's a bad strategy.
We must concentrate our efforts on stopping the alerts, which will be future invasions.
The progression will be stopped and we will have less invasion states. If we continue as usual, we will lose many systems to save just one.
His progression is almost exponential, and our defense is linear. We must stop their progression... before it's too late.
  1. What you see there is/was fact, not strategy.
  2. Different states are served best by different types of Commander. Alerts may be important, but I will leave it to you to make a thread calling for combat-focused Commanders to switch to cargo delivery.
 
There's certainly merit to debating strategy because Humanity has a lot to learn (as we go) about this war. This must happen and we should all be willing to listen to ideas.

There's also no doubt that managing and disseminating information about the current state of things such as states-of-conflict (Alert, Invasion, Recovery, etc.) and what can be done to help is utterly essential to this effort, including some suggestions about priorities to help players who aren't on top of all of this make a decision about their contribution, imo. Please don't stop!

I'm looking at the title of this thread. My head is spinning trying to keep up. Perhaps we can be thoughtful about...
...I was going to continue, but I thought I'd stop here (for the moment).
 
  1. What you see there is/was fact, not strategy.
  2. Different states are served best by different types of Commander. Alerts may be important, but I will leave it to you to make a thread calling for combat-focused Commanders to switch to cargo delivery.
Ok... but I guess this thread is read by the organizers of human resistance... or so I hope.

I'm just pointing out that efforts should be devoted to stopping future infections, not curing infected systems.

In systems on alert, there are combats, and they require less effort than those that are invaded. Every system that we save from the alert will not become invaded, so it will never require such efforts, and more can be saved in a month than invaded systems.

This strategy is the one that is carried out in accidents by medical personnel: they save the less serious ones (the conscious ones), and temporarily leave the most serious ones (the unconscious ones) to their fate, because if they treat the most serious ones first , some of those that are not so serious could become so.

If someone talks to an organizer, let them comment.
 
I keep thinking Alerts are little problems that can be solved quickly or turn in a big problems. Obviously, we aren't enough commanders to cover all, but... what can we do?

I have a question:

About BGS, population is a big parameter to take into account. Here in thargoid war, population is something to take into account?.
I mean, can we expect a system need double work to get it human controlled than other with half population than the first one?

Because according with this: https://inara.cz/elite/thargoidwar/
Hip 20485 are 55 million of persons, Vukurbeh only 4.

If that is needed to take into account, Vukurbeh should be done really quicker in comparison with Hip 20485.


I'm confused now.. Hip 23716 (recovered last week)... Im sure their population was much more of 100.000 persons. (Is the system taking into account the refugees movement?).
 
Several Interceptors destroyed in HIP 25679 during which it moved from 14% to 24%, the Alert in Vukurbeh from 20% to 34%, and some solid bolstering of Invasion progress in a few other systems which could result in a potential 5–6 Invasions won this cycle. There have also been a few new spots of Invasion effort in Muchihiks, Obassi Osaw and Mapon.

Shutdown Field Neutraliser is proving to be critical, despite having it in place of a precious Heat Sink Launcher. One can become accustomed to having too small a heat signature for the shutdown to be used, which is at odds with the system AX pilots triggering it every time.
 
The only part of this which is clearly understandable is that HIP 23716 wants cargo deliveries. Unless there has been or will be any clarification, it is not obvious exactly what conditions reactivate a port, exactly what occurs if that progress is complete, nor exactly what occurs after four weeks.
As others have noted, what is defined on the commodities board as "construction materials"?
 
I keep thinking Alerts are little problems that can be solved quickly or turn in a big problems. Obviously, we aren't enough commanders to cover all, but... what can we do?

I have a question:

About BGS, population is a big parameter to take into account. Here in thargoid war, population is something to take into account?.
I mean, can we expect a system need double work to get it human controlled than other with half population than the first one?

Because according with this: https://inara.cz/elite/thargoidwar/
Hip 20485 are 55 million of persons, Vukurbeh only 4.

If that is needed to take into account, Vukurbeh should be done really quicker in comparison with Hip 20485.


I'm confused now.. Hip 23716 (recovered last week)... Im sure their population was much more of 100.000 persons. (Is the system taking into account the refugees movement?).
According to the calculations that have been made and which are not 100% reliable, to release a system in alarm requires over 300 commanders, to release a system in invasion, 1500 commanders. This is 5 times more. There does not seem to be a direct relationship with the population of the system.

Likewise, whether it has millions or tens of thousands of inhabitants, it takes a month for the system to change state.
 
Some great progress overnight with Alert 46% and Invasion 34%, and there has been some fresh activity in Muruidooges.


As others have noted, what is defined on the commodities board as "construction materials"?

The best I could offer is that the offline/repairing Outposts (such as Knight Enterprise) have delivery missions for many types of cargo; metals, manufactured goods, foods—although that could just be to help the Outpost independently of the system. Unfortunately many aspects of the war interface are quite ambiguous, and usually we only know for sure after dozens/hundreds of Commanders have had a chance all to attempt the same thing together and observe the effect.
 
I still don't know the rules of the thargoid war, but I ASSUME it is:
1. Alert stage -> if not cleared within a week, goes into invasion(populated)/controlled(unpopulated) stage.
2. Invasion stage -> tick per week, many tick chances until it goes into controlled stage.
3. Controlled stage.
4. Once bar is filled before weekly tick, thargoids are driven out, no matter what stage, goes into recovery stage.
5. System that repelled thargoids in any stage becomes immune to the thargoid war game? Yes/No?

The broad idea is that:
1. We are unable to fully stop the invasion in the short run of-course.
2. The only way to stop the "current" invasion is to crack the secret of maelstroms, and blow them up like the good old days.
3. We will be pushed to a point where we have to decide greed vs humanity, choosing which system is more important than the other, PMF & PP players will have to co-operate with the lots, or more systems will fall. (Meaning some might have to drop their systems just to save systems that has a higher priority for the whole player base, easy example, Sol)
4. If the rules of thargoid war is assumed correctly, we're literally playing a 3D go(boardgame), by dropping all the low priority systems, and saving all the high priority systems, eventually we'll create a small bubble of invasion immune systems.
5. If thargoids have resource limitations, such as a limited amount of scouts and interceptors, as we keep killing, the bar will be easier and easier to fill, we'd be able to push back, but I doubt, so we'd likely be playing with rules. (It'd be interesting if ammonia planets boosts their weekly resources, then strategically we should be focusing on cutting their supply lines.)

How do we crack the maelstrom?
1. Maybe time locked events, such as CG on upgrading scanners -> getting more data -> CG on analyzing data -> breakthrough -> eventually.
2. Or through discovery, visiting all 8 maelstroms and surviving, hand-in all the data/material/cargo that could be obtained there -> ticks on server -> FDev releases content/CG -> eventually.
3. Or brute force, taking down all systems surrounding maelstrom, then maelstrom becomes vulnerable, kill it -> loop with the other 7, but judging on how many players we have, I doubt we could even achieve this.

Right now I just braindead and kill goids :D (Supporting Awara atm)
 
Last edited:
Back
Top Bottom