Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Aleks Zuno]

I didn't mention anything about alerts, the theory was about how the difficulty of stopping an invasion (based on how far it has progressed) matches the reward. Alerts being generated would be a completely separate mechanic.

What reward, though? Keeping Muruidooges in Invasion for longer would have resulted also in keeping it in Recovery for longer, but again, what is the reward? To assert that this would have slowed the Thargoid advance more so than a quick defence is to assert implicitly that the Alert process would attempt to choose that system a few times but fail and therefore cancel that Alert. Perhaps so, but not necessarily—it might just keep trying more systems until it succeeds in placing the Alert, in which case a slow defence and a quick defence would have equal value/reward.

Incidentally, you did mention Alerts, but rightly so! If the reward is measured in terms of reducing affected systems, the Alerts become connected with that fundamentally, because the change in affected systems is equal to Alert minus Complete.

Their total number of successes wouldn't be affected, so this defence would come at the cost of allowing them freer expansion elsewhere. But depending on what was being walled off from them, that might be considered acceptable.

Indeed! Given the number of empty systems targeted by Thargoids which are in the wrong direction from us, it appears as if shaping the advance is quite possible. In that case, one wonders whether the best strategy actually is to save defensible systems more quickly to keep the battle there deliberately... though this is also likely to occur naturally as well.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

What reward, though? Keeping Muruidooges in Invasion for longer would have resulted also in keeping it in Recovery for longer, but again, what is the reward?

The reward is that a system containing people gets a longer period of immunity from being attacked. What is the point of fighting this war, if lives are considered of no value / equal to empty systems?

 

[Cori]

What reward, though? Keeping Muruidooges in Invasion for longer would have resulted also in keeping it in Recovery for longer, but again, what is the reward? To assert that this would have slowed the Thargoid advance more so than a quick defence is to assert implicitly that the Alert process would attempt to choose that system a few times but fail and therefore cancel that Alert. Perhaps so, but not necessarily—it might just keep trying more systems until it succeeds in placing the Alert, in which case a slow defence and a quick defence would have equal value/reward.

Incidentally, you did mention Alerts, but rightly so! If the reward is measured in terms of reducing affected systems, the Alerts become connected with that fundamentally, because the change in affected systems is equal to Alert minus Complete.




Indeed! Given the number of empty systems targeted by Thargoids which are in the wrong direction from us, it appears as if shaping the advance is quite possible. In that case, one wonders whether the best strategy actually is to save defensible systems more quickly to keep the battle there deliberately... though this is also likely to occur naturally as well.

(Possibly obvious and already asked) question: are the invasions noticeably spreading out from the Maelstroms in any particular direction that could hint as to their ultimate objective(s)?

 

[Spaceman-FXL5]

Progress was wiped, squads have refocused and HIP 22524 probably won't be a priority any more (OP hasn't updated the first post since tick). Most active systems will likely be Nihal (AXI), Chinas (PDES/VANG) and HIP 7338.

Yep, as said by Ned and Dogface, HIP 22524 has no interest to me as I stated before, I do AXCZ combat and then dock at a port when Limpets are gone, and take Critically wounded missions, as ports/outposts seem to repair/refuel but don't resupply limpets.
I will be looking at Nihal and HIP 7338 initially as HIP 22524 is only for the combat purists.

EDIT removed Nihal as Alert also doesn't interest me.

 

[Felix DiCestria]

Muruidooges is back to a start of alert after being saved in its first week of invasion and going through one week of recovery.

This seems to match a theory: saving systems in early stages of invasion is easier (more functional ports and effective actions are possible) but saving them in the harder later stages gives a greater reward by extending the recovery period (during which they are immune to being reinvaded).

The hypothesis relies on the assumption that the damaged starports will be operational at the end of he recovery period. We won't know that till Hip 23716 completes and could lead to a swathe of 1 week invasions.

 

[Leadfoot]

(Possibly obvious and already asked) question: are the invasions noticeably spreading out from the Maelstroms in any particular direction that could hint as to their ultimate objective(s)?

Paging @Ian Doncaster - white courtesy phone please.

To me it just looks like they are expanding in every direction from wherever they are centered upon. Perhaps Ian can give us a better perspective.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Paging @Ian Doncaster - white courtesy phone please.

To me it just looks like they are expanding in every direction from wherever they are centered upon. Perhaps Ian can give us a better perspective.

The analysis from @yttrbio posted here is the only quantitative attempt I know of so far

Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Then why does it state "TG War signal detection based list of Thargoid controlled systems" ? As noted above - that was a mistake. I'm using a couple of different signals to identify the system war states. To check the allegiance you have to visit the system and see what the ship's HUD...

forums.frontier.co.uk

Nothing particularly obvious compared with a non-directional expansion theory yet, anyway.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

The reward is that a system containing people gets a longer period of immunity from being attacked. What is the point of fighting this war, if lives are considered of no value / equal to empty systems?

Understood! Personally I am quite happy to have the Thargoids removed from any system, though that additional part regarding population represents another form of shaping the advance (as with doing it spatially, but replacing a distance function with a population function). I agree very much with the statement "We can push Thargoids into empty systems by prolonging populated systems".

The only other things to mind are:

• A populated system which is particularly easy to fortify may see more value if we let it become a repeat Alert target.
• A particularly defensible populated system may see more value as a repeat Invasion target.

Aside from that, and if we are fine with eventually requiring a quite dedicated eviction team in the future, it would indeed be as well if the more difficult Invasion targets are allowed to have one port damaged before proceeding to secure the system, inducing the four-week Recovery.

I will be looking at Nihal and HIP 7338 initially as HIP 22524 is only for the combat purists.
EDIT removed Nihal as Alert also doesn't interest me.

On the contrary, remember that Alert matures into Invasion! Nihal should now be an Invasion system, so you should find combat aplenty.

(Possibly obvious and already asked) question: are the invasions noticeably spreading out from the Maelstroms in any particular direction that could hint as to their ultimate objective(s)?

While there will be no shortage of ideas about direction, it seems to me that there are enough Controlled empty systems in all directions from every Maelstrom that we have no basis to make any particular hypothesis at the moment, other than a default hypothesis involving random choices. A trend over much more time may reveal an objective, but for the moment the only predictable aspect is that Alerts appear near to existing war systems.

 

[Leadfoot]

The analysis from @yttrbio posted here is the only quantitative attempt I know of so far

Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Then why does it state "TG War signal detection based list of Thargoid controlled systems" ? As noted above - that was a mistake. I'm using a couple of different signals to identify the system war states. To check the allegiance you have to visit the system and see what the ship's HUD...

forums.frontier.co.uk

Nothing particularly obvious compared with a non-directional expansion theory yet, anyway.

You know, if there's no particular rhyme or reason to it, maybe this is the embryo of a new power-play member and they're just setting up shop all over the place to establish territory. I would imagine @Rubbernuke would find that interesting - maybe setting up new Kumoburger shops.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Half a day into Week 6, and most of the top few targets from the previous cycle have returned! HIP 22524 (10%) is ahead, and Nihal (6%) is back also. Every system with progress now has had at least some modest progress previously, and some of them across multiple cycles, so it is well that they now have their turn at the top of the list.

Top targets at 19:40 5th January 3309:
HIP 22524 Invasion + 1 port – 10%
Chinas Invasion + 1 port – 6%
Nihal Invasion + 2 ports – 6%
Luggerates Invasion + 2 ports – 4%
Chanyaya Invasion + 1 port – 2%
HIP 20719 Invasion + 4 ports – 2%
HIP 21380 Invasion + 2 ports – 2%
HIP 7338 Invasion + 0 ports – 2%
Namayu Invasion + 3 ports – 2%
Patollu Invasion + 2 ports – 2%

 

[Aleks Zuno]

HIP 22524 (20%) well underway, looks like PDES and AXI have made good starts in Chinas and Nihal, and I believe HOTC are targeting Luggerates and HIP 7338. Yemaki returns from the previous cycle, and HIP 11111 joins the fight!

Top targets at 23:40 5th January 3309:
HIP 22524 Invasion + 1 port – 20%
Chinas Invasion + 1 port – 10%
Nihal Invasion + 2 ports – 10%
Luggerates Invasion + 2 ports – 8%
HIP 20719 Invasion + 4 ports – 6%
HIP 7338 Invasion + 0 ports – 6%

 

[space voyager]

I have to say, this is the first time that AX combat is actually making real money. When several CMDRs gather in the same instance, the Cyclops are "resolved" in a matter of seconds... Last night I hopped in for an hour, perhaps an hour and a half - 80 million. Great times, I hope it lasts.

Though my son wants me to head out. He couldn't care less about Human species, I tell you.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

HIP 22524 (34%) should finish some time on the weekend. We have some (populated) Alert effort in Lubal and Vogulu, HIP 116351 and Vaipacnali returning, and Paitra joining the fight!

If I treat each day equally that would extrapolate to 6–7 Invasion systems; however, I have been adjusting the model a bit to place a little less weight on Thursday/Wednesday and a little more on Saturday/Sunday, which then extrapolates to 9–10.

Top targets at 08:40 6th January 3309:
HIP 22524 Invasion + 1 port – 34%
Chinas Invasion + 1 port – 18%
Nihal Invasion + 2 ports – 16%
Luggerates Invasion + 2 ports – 14%
HIP 20719 Invasion + 4 ports – 10%
HIP 7338 Invasion + 0 ports – 8%

I have to say, this is the first time that AX combat is actually making real money. When several CMDRs gather in the same instance, the Cyclops are "resolved" in a matter of seconds... Last night I hopped in for an hour, perhaps an hour and a half - 80 million. Great times, I hope it lasts.

Be careful with resolving too many things at the same time! Whenever I resolve two pirates at once, the Pilots' Federation calls it "reckless weapons discharge".

 

[Reaversword]

I'm waiting for that -more than 4 ax weapons- update, until then, I'm done. Not fun for me. I would help with my secondary accounts delivering passengers/wounded/critic for federal factions to rank up for the Corvette in that accounts.
But no fun for me fighting against Hydra/Medusa, need to jump out before they destroy me.

 

[xylaki]

I'm waiting for that -more than 4 ax weapons- update, until then, I'm done. Not fun for me. I would help with my secondary accounts delivering passengers/wounded/critic for federal factions to rank up for the Corvette in that accounts.
But no fun for me fighting against Hydra/Medusa, need to jump out before they destroy me.

the first rebuy is the hardest - after that its plain sailing

 

[Reaversword]

Is not about rebuys, I have... simply enough. 4 carriers in the account or so. Is about need to jump out because i'm almost done, unable to reach till the end of combat. Maybe is a matter of patience/time, have no several hours to beat a single enemy. So I simply do not enjoy my play time.

 

[Kayvan]

Bit embarassing to ask, but does any of the current candidates have a ground installation under attack?
Gt admit I'm not quite comfortable with the orbital outpost CZs yet, especially if they start out with a Basi and Clops.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Progress is holding steady, this time focused almost entirely on Invasions, with HIP 22524 (48%) doing very well. We have a spot of Alert effort in Lubal and HIP 20485, and Chnemine and HIP 18075 have returned!

Top targets at 19:00 6th January 3309:
HIP 22524 Invasion + 1 port – 48%
Nihal Invasion + 2 ports – 26%
Chinas Invasion + 1 port – 24%
Luggerates Invasion + 2 ports – 18%
HIP 7338 Invasion + 0 ports – 16%
HIP 20719 Invasion + 4 ports – 14%

I'm waiting for that -more than 4 ax weapons- update, until then, I'm done. Not fun for me. I would help with my secondary accounts delivering passengers/wounded/critic for federal factions to rank up for the Corvette in that accounts.
But no fun for me fighting against Hydra/Medusa, need to jump out before they destroy me.

Very true, depending on the ratio of Conflict zone rating to number of Commanders. Given the amount of synthesis it costs a single Commander to destroy a single Hydra, the Hydra is most definitely intended to be handled as a group. High bursts of damage are needed to anger its petals, and if this damage falls short then it would be as well for anyone present just to leave that one behind, rather than fight its regeneration.

When the regeneration rate is some appreciable fraction of the damage rate, adding damage becomes much more valuable than usual. For example, if said regeneration is as much as half of your damage, adding one Commander to double the damage will actually give you triple the progress rate. Adding a few Commanders puts those tougher targets into scope and improves the value of everyone's time.

In any case, you have done much, and your support actions will do yet more. Thank you!

Bit embarassing to ask, but does any of the current candidates have a ground installation under attack?
Gt admit I'm not quite comfortable with the orbital outpost CZs yet, especially if they start out with a Basi and Clops.

Interesting; you are far from the first I have seen asking specifically about attacked Planetary ports, I presume such that Swarms are absent. If it was a question of re-arming a large pad starship, note that it would be as well to drop at an attacked Starport.

Either way though, the fact that many are asking about it is enough to make it appropriate to list that type of information. The Imperial Navy mathematics department informs me that it should be possible to derive that information via EDDN broadcasts, and it occurs to me that we may even be able to extend I.N.T.R.A. to maintain it (minding that it is foremost bounty-related, not AX-related). Obviously that does not translate into an immediate answer, however I will be sure to follow it up and see if I can provide it at some future point.

In the meantime, you can be sure that zero ports active means there are no more attacks and the last one is damaged, and that having any ports active means that at least one is under attack. I suggest checking Invasion systems which have a greater number of ports active, such as those which were Alerts on the previous cycle.

 

[Weps]

When the regeneration rate is some appreciable fraction of the damage rate, adding damage becomes much more valuable than usual.

I still don't fully understand interceptor mechanics it seems. I read the guides but it's not stated clearly I think. Do you have to do damage equal to a percentage of the interceptor's HP to exert, or do you have to bring the interceptor's HP below a percentage to exert? For the former, regeneration is irrelevant, as long as you do the damage eventually, no?

Or what am I missing here?

 

[Aleks Zuno]

I still don't fully understand interceptor mechanics it seems. I read the guides but it's not stated clearly I think. Do you have to do damage equal to a percentage of the interceptor's HP to exert, or do you have to bring the interceptor's HP below a percentage to exert? For the former, regeneration is irrelevant, as long as you do the damage eventually, no?

Or what am I missing here?

It is the latter; you need to strike the hull until it drops below a threshold. Unlike ordinary combat, you are fighting against its regeneration as you do so. Its hull regenerates constantly, so you need everyone to strike it together as quickly as possible, to limit how much regeneration occurs.

Once the petal is angry, you are no longer fighting against regeneration directly, however you still have only a limited amount of time to destroy it (just under a minute). If the petal is still present after that time, you will need another hull strike to anger it again, although your previous petal damage will still be present.

Regarding regeneration, you can see the superior value of having another Commander present by inventing some numbers. Suppose you need to lower the hull by 6, you deal 2 per second, and the regeneration is 1 per second. Your 2/s is being undone by 1/s, leaving 1/s, thus taking 6 seconds. Adding an identical Commander will give you 4/s together, undone by 1/s to leave 3/s, thus taking 2 seconds. Double the damage gives you triple the rate in that example. Stronger regeneration makes that effect more valuable, and weaker regeneration makes it disappear.