It can be both. If Frontier end up deciding "no more updates" then the Thargoid War as-is will still carry on indefinitely (and on the current balance reach a stalemate position at roughly the current size) with the Thargoids making moves according to the current strategy. It won't be novel but it will provide a permanent semi-dynamic battlefront for people who like fighting Thargoids.
Equally, there are several updates Frontier might intend to make that couldn't be put in place for the start of U14 - the ability to repel Maelstroms and the Thargoids to add (or reposition) them has been hinted at in Galnet, for example - and it would likely be a more strategically interesting war with those updates.
On a more general point, one thing I've mentioned before is that systems where the only major non-deterministic input is players do tend towards fairly boring equilibrium if possible - people can generally assess the relative strengths and make sure they only start fights they can win, powerful groups tend to agree borders rather than start giant multi-system wars, while small groups get unceremoniously crushed. The major sources of excitement come when people deliberately do strategically unwise but entertaining things (with enough tactical strength for it to not get immediately stopped).
So even with a fully player-dynamic Thargoid+BGS+Powerplay+stuff integrated system for managing the galaxy, the likelihood is that players would collectively manage it into "let's keep something very like the status quo" (a relatively mild loss-aversion and prioritising of maintenance over expansion would do that) - Frontier will always need to be injecting adverse events to regularly shake things up even if the nature of those events is different to the pre-U13 "CGs and Incursions" play.
Okay, I'm going to do it, I'm going to mention that "other game" (cough X4 cough), not to derail this topic, but to enrich it. One of the things I love about X4 is that I still have moments where the literal thought, "What is the AI up to?" crosses my mind. As if the AI is actually
thinking. It's obviously not, but it's using some sort of algorithm to position its fleets, select targets, and start battles at various times. It's good enough to still trick me into believing it has an actual strategy rather than just an elaborate decision tree, and that is incredibly immersive, even when I'm not engaging in the battle myself.
I'm not sure if the Thargoids are operating this way or not, but it sounds like you're pretty impressed with them. Unfortunately last I checked, Elite was still very "tinker toy" when it comes to the effects of things like war. I never got a sense of supply chain or other consequences to large scale wars taking place in the galaxy. It seems (correct me if I'm wrong), every system is its own self-contained bucket, and when CMDRs are trading, that can have a slightly noticeable effect on "supply chain", in that if
lots of goods are moved from one system's bucket to another system's bucket, one bucket will fill a little and the other empty a little. Of course this is totally dependent on CMDRs (NPCs are just eye candy), and the effect is so small that it's not even noticeable except between small systems or during some huge localized event like a CG.
I actually think the bucket system is a decent enough system to simulate supply chain IF the buckets are realistic (how many cargo canisters can a station realistically hold based on volume), and IF the quantity in the buckets affect other buckets in a supply chain manner (a refinery only outputs metals when it receives ores), and IF there is a very rudimentary simulated NPC traffic (say "50 NPC T9s trade XYZ per hour) that is effected by things like war, piracy, and economy, which brings my last IF, which is that supply and demand had a more realistic effect on the economy.
This is a rework of a major feature that would really appeal to me. I'm not sure if the average CMDR would notice it, or if they would just keep looking up the best trades on EDDB and focus on making money. Though a proper economy should actually making finding good trades more of a hot potato - 100 T9s at Rubeo should empty out / fill the buy / sell stations pretty quickly (these stations are of fixed volume, after all). Add to this the Thargoid War, which should greatly disrupt certain supply lines, along with having other economic factors like price hikes due to general fear, and even the average CMDR should notice it.
Anyway, just thinking out loud. Yes, I'd love to see X4's realism (economy, supply chains, warfleet deployments, etc) cross-pollinate with Elite. I don't expect every NPC ship to be "real" like in X4, but adding a few buckets to the BGS like "x number of T9s trading between A and B" along with adjusting current buckets, coupled with the new Thargoid Strategic AI, could easily provide a similar realism to Elite at a much lower cost, processing and development-wise.
There are years of Galnet Articles hinting the relations between prominent game figures. So it's way more than some mugshots
