Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Do we have a strength calculator? e.g. what is unpopulated 22.65 ly away going to take? It would be very interesting to take back Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 before the tick for... reasons
 
Despite having to plan quite far ahead and reserve Carrier jumps over an hour in advance, victories in Haitchane and Col 285 Sectors UD-G b12-2 and OC-V d2-81! That makes a very nice seventy-two systems, including all Alerts and remaining well ahead of new attacks.

Cephei Sector ZE-A c8 reported a sharp 321%, although this week Vogulu gets the Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5 Overachievement Award for showing 238% in the inhabited league.


Issuing a slight correction:
We found one minor difference; Hyperspace destabilisation is now considered dangerous for a short moment, so Exit and Continue cannot be used immediately. The fifteen-second gap still counts down while boosting away from the Thargoid before it identifies your vessel, although most heavy vessels need not worry about movement or a few attacks.

That danger-time actually was being caused prior to making the jump, due to the Fleet Carrier orbiting too close to a binary star! Without those special circumstances, Exit and Continue works quite well as before.


Is everybody who is testing pod effectiveness using the same turn in method? They can be either turned in to search and rescue or sold to the commodity market...

This is an excellent point; even if those were identical, I think Frontier should decide which one of those two means should be kept and remove the other. For the moment though, and at terrible risk of suggesting rudely a task to which I have not contributed, I think that calls for reversing the test; that is to say, hold constant the system and compare the two delivery methods.


Do we have a strength calculator? e.g. what is unpopulated 22.65 ly away going to take? It would be very interesting to take back Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 before the tick for... reasons

INIV has an incomplete one—for future reference, using linear interpolation between the junctions I last updated here will give the overestimates we are using. Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 at 22.65 Ly would have yielded almost exactly 756; call it 757.

I would love to have helped there, though unfortunately even if we had that request a little earlier I think that Fleet Carrier queue would have precluded it regardless.
 
We barely missed the tick ourselves (FC jump timer and social were not on our side). We'll deliver once the servers get back up.
 
827 samples sold for OG-E b12-1 at approx ~08:20 servertime. So given the :00 calculation, :12-15 display, 50 minutes or so we'll see the galaxy map results, for good or ill.
 
We should probably try to conquer one of the new
Thargoid Barnacle Matrix site
systems this cycle to see if it's possible and what happens if we do.
 

Week 36, 3rd August 3309​

Report
Thirty-one Alerts repelled at Cephei Sectors AV-Y b0, AF-A c21 and AV-Y b2, HIPs 20019, 111081, 4041, 20492, 23716, 25679 and 116360, 69 Upsilon Tauri, Col 285 Sectors YT-Q c5-10, JG-O c6-5, SM-C b13-0, KW-M c7-12, RM-B b14-2, VS-Z b14-0, YT-F b12-7, SH-B b14-5 and ZE-P c6-11, Vistnero, Ebisu, Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1, 90 c1 Tauri, Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14, Holvandalla, Muruidooges, Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2, Khwal, Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 and Paitra.
Twenty-five Control evictions at Hyades Sectors NT-I b9-3, TJ-R c4-10, TJ-R c4-11, EG-N b7-2, AA-P b6-4, HW-W d1-88 and QN-T c3-13, Pegasi Sectors HH-U b3-4, NY-O a7-5 and EB-W b2-7, HIPs 5898, 6268 and 19781, Trianguli Sectors EQ-Y b2, EQ-Y b1 and EQ-Y b4, Cephei Sector BV-Y b2, Arietis Sectors XE-R b4-2, VJ-R b4-0, VJ-R b4-1, XE-R b4-0 and KM-W c1-16, Ceti Sectors ZU-Y b2 and ZU-Y b4, and HR 8536.
One recaptured system starting Recovery is HIP 19781.
Maelstrom Leigong loses one attack.

Targets updated at 06:50 10th August 3309
68 Tauri Control 42% — Indra 26 Ly, empty
Mahlina Control 14% *15.6%Cocijo 21 Ly
Omumba Control 12% — Hadad 14 Ly
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2 Control 6% *7.1%Indra 26 Ly, empty
Iduni Control 6% *6.6%Raijin 22 Ly
Col 285 Sector KL-E b12-5 Control 6% *6.3%Thor 31 Ly, empty
Liu Huang Control 6% — Oya 18 Ly
Modigi Control 4% *4.5%Taranis 18 Ly
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-3 Control 4% *4.4%Indra 23 Ly, empty
HIP 21946 Control 4% *4.1%Indra 24 Ly
77 Theta-1 Tauri Control 4% — Indra 21 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector WK-L a9-2 Control 4% — Indra 27 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0 Control 2% *3.8%Thor 25 Ly, empty
Tougeir Control 2% *3.4%Oya 16 Ly
HIP 19501 Control 2% *3.2%Thor 31 Ly, empty
Mapon Control 2% *2.9%Cocijo 18 Ly
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17 Control 2% *2.8%Thor 26 Ly, empty
HIP 7338 Control 2% *2.5%Oya 19 Ly
Trianguli Sector CA-A c22 Control 2% *2.3%Taranis 15 Ly, empty
Kamato Control 2% *2.2%Raijin 27 Ly
HIP 21261 Control 2% — Indra 20 Ly
HIP 113535 Control 2% — Raijin 20 Ly
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-10 Control 2% — Thor 27 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22 Control 2% — Cocijo 23 Ly, empty
HIP 21008 Control 2% — Indra 23 Ly, empty

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers which can be stopped this cycle.
The Alert system Vistnero has a residual port conflict, with minor fines due to a no-fire zone.

Operations
Operation Redacted: Harvest for HIP 9016 is at 14215 of 20043 (70.92%).

Week 35, 27th July 3309​

Report
Thirty-three Alerts repelled at Hyades Sectors PN-T c3-8 and MT-I b9-1, HIPs 20485, 7143, 19757 and 20948, Col 285 Sectors NG-E b12-3, NG-E b12-4, YT-Q c5-12, OB-E b12-4, BF-E b13-1, RM-B b14-4, YT-Q c5-14, KW-M c7-16, JW-M c7-10 and UD-G b12-2, Arietis Sector FG-Y d66, Vogulu, HR 1403, Cephei Sectors WO-A b4, FB-X b1-1, ZE-A c8 and DQ-Y b1, Namayu, Balak, Pegasi Sectors OI-S b4-1 and FW-W d1-110, Gliese 9035, Hez Ur, Jawul, 65 Kappa Tauri, Wanmi and Bi Dhorora.
Thirty-nine Control evictions at Hyades Sectors NT-I b9-2, GW-W d1-87, LY-I b9-0, GB-N b7-4, QN-T c3-4 and PN-T c3-23, HIPs 22203, 116542, 8078, 9764, 6251, 37520, 6442, 20741, 5629 and 19600, Col 285 Sectors IA-G b11-3, SM-C b13-1, SM-C b13-2, RS-H b11-6, VY-Q c5-19, ZE-P c6-6, US-H b11-4, YY-F b12-3, WN-H b11-4 and OC-V d2-81, Ixbaksha, Arietis Sectors LM-V b2-3, NH-V b2-0, VJ-R b4-2 and VJ-R b4-3, Mesarthim, Pegasi Sectors UK-L a9-0, QE-N a8-2, NY-O a7-2 and NY-O a7-1, 57 h Tauri, Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b3 and Haitchane.
Six recaptured systems starting Recovery are Ixbaksha, HIPs 9764, 37520, 6442 and 20741, and Haitchane.
Maelstrom Thor loses three attacks, and Leigong is unable to attack.
 
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827 samples sold for OG-E b12-1 at approx ~08:20 servertime. So given the :00 calculation, :12-15 display, 50 minutes or so we'll see the galaxy map results, for good or ill.
...Results so far are not looking good.
{ "timestamp":"2023-08-03T09:22:22Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1", [...], "ThargoidWar":{ "CurrentState":"Thargoid_Controlled", "NextStateSuccess":"", "NextStateFailure":"Thargoid_Controlled", "SuccessStateReached":false, "WarProgress":0.000000, "RemainingPorts":0, "EstimatedRemainingTime":"0 Days" }

The only oddity in this system is the new U16 thing as Disembodied Ego proposed should be targeted... this may be a bad sign.
 
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System strength statement​

308 units delivered for Hyades Sector NT-I b9-3 has completed it versus an estimated 308.02; it is fine to proceed with any deliveries. The actual progress became 100.6633%, yielding a projected strength of 307.0, such that system strengths appear to be unchanged.

Attacks at previous Control systems​

Presumably these are no longer of interest given the recent changes involving residual Conflict zones. They are here on this occasion if needed, otherwise they can be skipped in future!
System​
Inhabited​
Maelstrom​
Distance​
Week evicted​
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2​
No​
Indra​
26.29 Ly​
18​
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7​
No​
Cocijo​
23.88 Ly​
25​
HIP 4041​
No​
Oya​
18.53 Ly​
27​
HIP 25679​
Yes​
Taranis​
17.4 Ly​
28​
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2​
No​
Oya​
18.35 Ly​
28​
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5​
No​
Hadad​
19.63 Ly​
28​
Paitra​
Yes​
Cocijo​
24.88 Ly​
28​
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0​
No​
Oya​
23.57 Ly​
29​
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10​
No​
Cocijo​
28.89 Ly​
30​
Cephei Sector AF-A c21​
No​
Oya​
20.67 Ly​
30​
90 c1 Tauri​
No​
Indra​
26.48 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0​
No​
Thor​
21.78 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0​
No​
Hadad​
18.84 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5​
No​
Thor​
24.84 Ly​
31​
HIP 111081​
No​
Raijin​
24.7 Ly​
31​
Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1​
No​
Taranis​
22.18 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11​
Yes​
Cocijo​
28.9 Ly​
31​
Vistnero​
Yes​
Raijin​
21.01 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12​
No​
Hadad​
17.57 Ly​
31​
Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14​
No​
Taranis​
22.82 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2​
No​
Hadad​
18.16 Ly​
31​
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4​
No​
Raijin​
22.35 Ly​
31​


...Results so far are not looking good.
{ "timestamp":"2023-08-03T09:22:22Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1", [...], "ThargoidWar":{ "CurrentState":"Thargoid_Controlled", "NextStateSuccess":"", "NextStateFailure":"Thargoid_Controlled", "SuccessStateReached":false, "WarProgress":0.000000, "RemainingPorts":0, "EstimatedRemainingTime":"0 Days" }

The only oddity in this system is the new U16 thing as Disembodied Ego proposed should be targeted... this may be a bad sign.

For what it is worth, our strength test above took longer than expected; definitely allow it one more round of updates! If it still remains at zero that would also be a very interesting conclusion, if a little unfortunate that 827 units were used in the process.
 

Attacks at previous Control systems​

Presumably these are no longer of interest given the recent changes involving residual Conflict zones. They are here on this occasion if needed, otherwise they can be skipped in future!
System​
Inhabited​
Maelstrom​
Distance​
Week evicted​
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2​
No​
Indra​
26.29 Ly​
18​
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7​
No​
Cocijo​
23.88 Ly​
25​
HIP 4041​
No​
Oya​
18.53 Ly​
27​
HIP 25679​
Yes​
Taranis​
17.4 Ly​
28​
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2​
No​
Oya​
18.35 Ly​
28​
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5​
No​
Hadad​
19.63 Ly​
28​
Paitra​
Yes​
Cocijo​
24.88 Ly​
28​
Cephei Sector AV-Y b0​
No​
Oya​
23.57 Ly​
29​
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10​
No​
Cocijo​
28.89 Ly​
30​
Cephei Sector AF-A c21​
No​
Oya​
20.67 Ly​
30​
90 c1 Tauri​
No​
Indra​
26.48 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0​
No​
Thor​
21.78 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0​
No​
Hadad​
18.84 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5​
No​
Thor​
24.84 Ly​
31​
HIP 111081​
No​
Raijin​
24.7 Ly​
31​
Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1​
No​
Taranis​
22.18 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11​
Yes​
Cocijo​
28.9 Ly​
31​
Vistnero​
Yes​
Raijin​
21.01 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12​
No​
Hadad​
17.57 Ly​
31​
Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14​
No​
Taranis​
22.82 Ly​
31​
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2​
No​
Hadad​
18.16 Ly​
31​
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4​
No​
Raijin​
22.35 Ly​
31​
They are for now, and will remain so for a few weeks as Alerts cycle through the systems with remaining conflict zones. Vistnero has been confirmed to have CZs, although it will lose them as soon as the Alert completes!
 
With salvage items keeping their value between cycles, and with inner Maelstrom systems still very much as achievable as @Carpets discovered so dutifully here, I announce on behalf of INIV:

Operation Redacted​

Primary goal​

Discover whether a Maelstrom system, now known more concisely as a Titan, can attack systems itself:
  • If the Titan can attack, discover whether this appears as a normal Alert or if something else occurs.
  • If only Control systems can attack, keep a system guarded at less than ten light-years from a Titan.

Secondary goal​

If only Control systems can attack, clear a conical volume intended for gradual expansion, ultimately engulfing the Titan and ending all attacks around it forever.

Actions​

As identified most kindly by @Ian Doncaster here, the first and largest task is a Control eviction at HIP 9016, which is around 9.6 light-years away from Titan Leigong. This will be approximately a two-week process; a fresh measurement performed at the beginning of week 36 with 112 units delivered and 0.5588% progress places HIP 9016 at 20040–20043 strength. Delivery is scheduled prior to the end of week 37.

After HIP 9016 is complete, the next stage is to prevent other Control systems from attacking it, such that any attack must originate from the Titan and nowhere else. We will have the following month to ensure this becomes the case, during which HIP 9016 is in its respite interval and cannot be attacked. These evictions are:
  • Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 at 14.46 Ly.
  • HIP 9709 at 15.21 Ly.
Thankfully, both are empty systems. At present these two are scheduled for the second and third weeks after HIP 9016 is cleared. HIP 9016 will then leave its respite interval and become attackable after the fourth week, while those former Control systems are stuck safely within their own respite intervals for another two and three weeks.

Defence​

Despite being a lot of Research cargo, 20000 is actually fewer than a typical single week for INIV, so 10000 per week ought to leave a good amount for keeping present attacks away if we can. If anything, a much larger defence threat at present is the lack of timely Fleet Carrier movement, and it would be lovely if whoever clearly is jumping a Fleet Carrier army across the Galaxy could moderate their actions a little.

We should be able to maintain HIP 9016 as a safe, empty system by means of clearing any repeat Control states at Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 and HIP 9709. As a note for those intent on clearing all Alerts and achieving it so astoundingly well, please do not feel obliged to guard HIP 9016! We are quite happy for those systems—or indeed any weaker systems if we end up pushing our conical volume outwards a bit—to enter Control again and be evicted that way before they attack, rather than repelled as an Alert.
 
the next hour down, I fear things look bleak.
{ "timestamp":"2023-08-03T10:15:12Z", "event":"Location", "Docked":false, "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1" [...] "ThargoidWar":{ "CurrentState":"Thargoid_Controlled", "NextStateSuccess":"", "NextStateFailure":"Thargoid_Controlled", "SuccessStateReached":false, "WarProgress":0.000000, "RemainingPorts":0, "EstimatedRemainingTime":"0 Days" } }

Barring a sudden change later in the day, the locations of these
Barnacle Matrix, thargoid surface Things
may be important to keep track of, to avoid throwing effort into unassailable systems.
 
Yeah it'd be useful to patrol all the thargoid controlled systems that could contain them and look for those planetary signals on the FSS of suitable (conditions unknown, probably atmospheric) planets.
IIRC someone found a non-atmospheric one. Anyone working in an uninhabited system will need to check for structures before starting, basically.
 
Quick update on an unpopulated control, Cephei Sector BV-Y b2 at 15.99 ly from the maelstrom. Sample requirement calculated as 2682. Slightly lower than the 2720 estimate taking from one of the INIV graphs.
 
They are for now, and will remain so for a few weeks as Alerts cycle through the systems with remaining conflict zones. Vistnero has been confirmed to have CZs, although it will lose them as soon as the Alert completes!

Understood; thank you! A goal for the next list will be to have them separated based on whether they have seen completion since that change.


Quick update on an unpopulated control, Cephei Sector BV-Y b2 at 15.99 ly from the maelstrom. Sample requirement calculated as 2682. Slightly lower than the 2720 estimate taking from one of the INIV graphs.

15.99 Ly is on the very edge of its applicability, although I am quite happy to hear that the estimation was indeed above the real strength! Those junctions were determined deliberately such that all known cases fall below the line, as opposed to being any form of best-fit line.

At that distance or closer, note that these measurements may be more helpful for the moment.


IIRC someone found a non-atmospheric one. Anyone working in an uninhabited system will need to check for structures before starting, basically.

I am a bit behind with this new addition—is this a matter of scanning the system fully and checking Navigation for a particular point of interest?

If these are preventing any activity from working and such is intentional, that makes it a little dishonest of the Galaxy map to continue suggesting that activity causes progress. An interesting case would be if they appear in a system despite being targeted for recapture. If there is not a simple way to remove them, we will also need to check Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 and HIP 9709, for any present there would mean aborting the operation above after just having announced it. Better sooner than later, I suppose!
 
If there is not a simple way to remove them, we will also need to check Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 and HIP 9709, for any present there would mean aborting the operation above after just having announced it
If no one does by then, I can opt in to check those systems once I get to log on. Will be in about an hour.
 
I am a bit behind with this new addition—is this a matter of scanning the system fully and checking Navigation for a particular point of interest?
It shows up in the FSS under locations and in the nav panel only after DSS I believe. There's about 300 control systems that contain potential candidates (maybe even less if we assume a certain range from a maelstrom).

I assume the thargoid war/system state could be updated for this if it ends up being a big deal, just like Maelstroms were renamed Titans recently
 
It doesn’t look like there are any Thargoid barnacle matrix sites present within HIP 9709 and Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0. Unless the game’s lieing to me, but I don’t think it is.
 
It doesn’t look like there are any Thargoid barnacle matrix sites present within HIP 9709 and Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0. Unless the game’s lieing to me, but I don’t think it is.

Thank you ever so much for the scouting support! We have wanted to know for a while whether a Maelstrom system can attack, and it means a lot to know that we should still be able to isolate HIP 9016.


It shows up in the FSS under locations and in the nav panel only after DSS I believe. There's about 300 control systems that contain potential candidates (maybe even less if we assume a certain range from a maelstrom).

Even if range matters in theory, with Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 at 22 Ly I imagine it matters little in practice—20 Ly has been our containment/eradication line! 300 is also close enough to half of all Control systems.


I assume the thargoid war/system state could be updated for this if it ends up being a big deal, just like Maelstroms were renamed Titans recently

Very much so; it is exactly as important as the way a Titan system has no activity display, because that shows Commanders explicitly that there is no need to spend time attempting to win the system. Respect for time comes first, and Frontier has echoed that on several occasions!
 
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