Good Bad Games
There are still players maybe it’s forumites that are going.
Since squadrons became an actual in-game thing, over time discussion has shifted over to various Discords, more and more away from the forums. For example, I hang around on most major exploration Discords, and there's plenty of talk going on (well, except at ones for angry exes), meanwhile the exploration subforum here has had little discussion for quite a while now. From what I can tell, the situation is similar with the other forums as well - and of course, PowerPlay itself had most discussions moving off from here far sooner than the other areas, for reasons which I think are fairly obvious.
I have noticed in this thread that people who are done with ED are more apt to desire a new version of Elite (Elite V), whereas those still enjoying ED rather have an expansion to the existing game. That seems totally logical to me.
Especially when you consider that somebody posting here isn't wholly done with the game, evidenced by the fact they read the thread and replied to it. Somebody who is over completely wouldn't come here and then also take the time to post. So, "I'm done with ED but I would like to see a sequel" also translates to "I'm done with Elite: Dangerous but I'm not done with Elite(s)".
Starfield's costs are quoted as ~$400 million - about six times that of Elite Dangerous development+operations combined, over about nine years. Its marketing budget alone is probably bigger than ED's entire development costs. People have sent real spaceships to Jupiter quicker and cheaper than that. Small island nations fit their entire government spending into a lower annual budget (though I guess their ships also have interiors?).
For the question "what can Frontier plausibly do" it's not relevant.
Oh, good catch. It's interesting to put numbers to the various games' development and marketing. To be frank, as it is now, Starfield's a perfect candidate for a 7/10 game - and as you said, that's after about nine years and hundreds of millions of dollars, and enormous money spent on marketing, which matters a lot.
Some months back, I looked a bit into Hello Games' financials, see
this post: as it turns out, the power of massive marketing (financed by Sony) was such that they made enough money that even if all income was cut afterwards, they could have kept developing the game for over ten years. I don't think that all those copies sold were based on the state of the game at launch, because really, it was quite the debacle.
So, sure, they developed the game quite well over the years, but they did so at practically zero financial risk, and an original reception that was poor enough that they could really only go higher. It's a good thing the developers kept at the game and improved it over all the years, of course.
Anyway, back to those two games and comparisons. I wouldn't compare them to games focusing on spaceflight like ED or SC, or even KSP, even if the latter is all about (mostly) realistic spaceflight. Both NMS and SF are in different genres, the former focusing on open world survival-crafting, a much more popular genre than space sims, and the latter on single player RPG, again a much more popular genre. For NMS, a better comparison is with Minecraft, for SF, lately... the Outer Worlds. (I mean, one could compare it to Baldur's Gate 3, but one is a turn-based isometric single player RPG, the other is a real time first-person single player action-RPG, and the two subgenres have vastly different audience draws.)
At the end of the day then, unfortunately there aren't many games which are fair to compare Elite: Dangerous with. It has to be multiplayer, and MMO even (persistent, dynamic game world, and so on), so there's... Star Citizen, and nothing else. SC is an interesting comparison because it is said to have received much more money than ED (not on the Kickstarter campaigns though, and I trust those numbers much more than CIG's unverified numbers), and with more than ten years of production, it's still in a superposition of "not released" and "released". Which eigenstate it collapses to depends on who's asking and the context. One could argue then that it's not fair to compare a launched game to an "alpha", but I'd say that Star Citizen can be played now, so it's a fair comparison: as a matter of fact, the game's site has "Play now" written front and center. As far as I can tell, you have to proceed quite some way into the purchase before you get told that this is an alpha / early access / testing / etc version.
However, could this niche even support more than these two games? I wonder. But well, suppose ED did get a sequel: then there'd be three games in the (sub)genre. Whee.