Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

If the turnout is very strong and nothing else is needed at M. Leigong ahead of its Final Ten moment, I will be eyeing the disjoint Akbakara over at M. Oya.

As all alerts at Oya are cleared we will take a look on Akbakara as well. The [SNPX] ISS Nadira in Liu Huang has placed a buy order for Scout tissue samples. Our last measurement gave a 8.500 strength (I will take a review on this and adjust the buy order if needed).

Some of our AX-combat pilots were asking, when we will recapture all systems around MS Oya. After I explained, how much samples we need only to get 15% and that we have to collect them before we start hitting the spire sites to get 85% peripheral progress, there was some "silence" to hear.

To get a "feeling" for those new in the harvesting business we will start with the eviction of Akbakara this evening. Of course we are happy getting some support here, but Leigong clearly has priority.

 

[Jmanis]

Really. That’s seriously dumb. This was never an issue when the rescue megaships still sat over 100 ly from the front.

… how far is HIP 23816 from the closest rescue megaship(the one in Telin, I think?)? Because I visited it last week and there were zero missions on offer. Likewise around… one of the HIPs that had just entered recovery that same week. Yet a system further on the opposite side of the same Titan (Taranis) clearly showed all its Odyssey settlements active again already… when I went in there to look.

I haven't measured how close you need to be unfortunately... maybe it's coincidence, but both times when I've been to the closest system to me for post recovery there's been no missions, so I'd go deliberately to one closest to the rescue ship and voila, missions.

The same applies to the contaminated spire compound missions; they only seem to appear if a rescue ship is a particular range from a spire.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Cephei Sector AV-Y b0 and Col 285 Sectors UN-H b11-5 and LV-F b11-0—but apparently not HIP 9643, which seems to be short by one of our four Journal-recorded deliveries which definitely occurred. If not that, it would mean Frontier increased Control strength 33% some time on Friday!

Anomalies notwithstanding as long as they cease, the remaining M. Leigong targets are just about within reach this week. More Peripheral progress will be still very helpful, though!

Peripheries at 08:40 25th November 3309:
Six systems with 42% — Indra 19–21 Ly, 3 inhabited, 707–1647 strength
Five systems with ~20% — Leigong 15–16 Ly, 1 matrix + 2 inhabited, 493–11.4k strength

Alerts:
Obamumbo Alert 68% *69% — Indra 19 Ly, 10 Ls starport, 17 Ls outpost, 10 Ls planet, Peripheral system
HIP 21261 Alert 40% — Indra 20 Ly, 18 Ls outpost, 285 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Nu Guang Alert 26% — Raijin 19 Ly, 44 Ls starport, 1506 Ls outpost, 44 Ls planet

Evictions:
97 i Tauri Control 82% — Indra 21 Ly, 707 strength, Peripheral system
Lei Hsini Control 74% — Indra 21 Ly, 1027 strength, Peripheral system
HIP 22524 Control 64% — Indra 20 Ly, 1647 strength, Peripheral system

Clean-up:
HIP 9643 Control 82% — Leigong 16 Ly, 493 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4 Alert 70% — Cocijo 21 Ly, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31 Alert 66% — Hadad 20 Ly, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 Alert 62% *62.1% — Thor 23 Ly, matrix

Dark Session’s testing around Leigong seems to have yielded that the pod rescues no longer have any affect on uninhabited systems, but only the populated counterstrikes/periphery

I am having terrible trouble keeping track of all the changes regarding which activities have what effect—was that posted earlier? Even if the counterstrike versus periphery distinction was unclear at the time, a pointer to it will help a lot for catching up.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I am having terrible trouble keeping track of all the changes regarding which activities have what effect—was that posted earlier? Even if the counterstrike versus periphery distinction was unclear at the time, a pointer to it will help a lot for catching up.

It was on Discord - I think it's been referred to a couple of times on the forums but maybe not yet in this thread?

21/11/2023 21:43
I tested the impact of handing in Thargoid Bio-storage Capsules at the rescue ships again in more detail today. And it seems they have no (measurable) impact on the progress of the outer 10 systems nor the spire systems (anymore). I handed in 2x 128 Leigong pods at different hours and was not able to see any change of the progress reported in the journal even 1.5 hours later.

and later

23/11/2023 06:37
I don't have any plans to repeat the test. I repeated it in based on Starsong67's input that FDev might have reverted the pods to only progressing populated counterstrike systems. I then actually saw some progress in a populated counterstrike system but I wasn't sure if it progressed because of the pods I handed in or because of some other action. Considering they do not progress the same systems as the spire I would't recommend extracting pods to help the war efforts.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Okay! I understand the narrative logic there, but indeed it makes Titan rescues a quite weak action.

Regarding HIP 9643:

• The estimated strength is 2734.
• We left with 2304 units while periphery was at 16.2%, which became 16.7% at delivery time, or an estimated 2278 strength.
• The deliveries were 600, 600, 600, 504.
• After another ~3% peripheral progress overnight, the result was 82%.

Possibilities:

• One of the 600 deliveries was not recorded:
  • With only 1704 against 2734 strength, the progress boost would be 62.3%.
  • Combined with the periphery reaching 19.7%, that matches a 82% observation.
• The Control strength is abruptly one-third higher:
  • The delivery of 2304 against the higher 3646 strength gives a 63.2% boost.
  • Combined with the periphery reaching 19.7%, that becomes around 82.8%.

Ahead of finishing HIP 9643 and striking Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3 later, I will aim for a quick Control strength check! A strength change did occur once just before the end of a weekly cycle, but otherwise those have been during the weekly maintenance instead.

Some of our AX-combat pilots were asking, when we will recapture all systems around MS Oya. After I explained, how much samples we need only to get 15% and that we have to collect them before we start hitting the spire sites to get 85% peripheral progress, there was some "silence" to hear.

It is still a good question:

• After M. Leigong, the single most important thing any Maelstrom needs is the support of everyone at its Spire sites; as such, no individual person can give an accurate or truthful answer.
• Indeed M. Oya will need a good amount of preparation and long-term storage; Cephei Sector XO-A b2 and Eoto are one full Carrier each, and likely one should prepare Inara, Baiabozo and perhaps HIP 21165 ready before commencing the siege, each a partial Carrier-load.
• The purely logical choice is M. Hadad next, after which there are no more easy options, and it could be as well to begin the M. Oya plan as the fourth target.
  • M. Hadad is easy to clear without any planning, only peripheral progress support.
  • Beyond simply reducing total Alerts from 30 to 25, those five include the strongest empty Alerts at the moment.
• M. Oya could become the third target if it can get Spire support while M. Hadad can not, noting that:
  • The progress rate at M. Oya needs tempering while the inner payloads are prepared.
  • Close to the end, the specific deliveries may need some care that both Matrix systems do not become peripheral systems together.
  • The Spire support cannot stop once started.

To get a "feeling" for those new in the harvesting business we will start with the eviction of Akbakara this evening. Of course we are happy getting some support here, but Leigong clearly has priority.

Indeed if the M. Leigong periphery continues easing Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 and Obassi Osaw, you can expect your order to be complete by the end of the week!

 

[Medi0cr3]

Ahead of finishing HIP 9643 and striking Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3 later, I will aim for a quick Control strength check! A strength change did occur once just before the end of a weekly cycle, but otherwise those have been during the weekly maintenance instead.

Good luck. Hope its not 33% higher...

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Good luck. Hope its not 33% higher...

Unfortunately—HIP 10118 had estimated strength 3061, but 104 units moved it from 0.0011% to 2.6266%, projecting 3962 strength or an almost exactly 30% increase. This came after the weekly cycle began, where Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0 was completed normally on Thursday. With a 30% increase to the strength component on Friday, the delivery for the remainder of HIP 9643 would have left it somewhere around 83.7%, observing 82% on the Galaxy map.

A completion amount has been delivered for HIP 9643 now, including the extra 30%. Assuming that it is 30% everywhere including inhabited, for other targets this week we will need a lot more peripheral progress—the increase is countered if the periphery reaches 23.1%, and M. Leigong has just reached 23.5%, so the remaining strength is back where it started (albeit with additional peripheral progress having more value now).

Again assuming the extra 30% is everywhere, I think we can still finish M. Leigong with a good Spire turnout this weekend and a full periphery completion next week, but I think also I do not really want to continue much further:

• At all, while Frontier fail to settle for reliable system and periphery strengths.
• Without more direct Control system support, whatever form that takes.

Of course it could also be a ~23% reduction just for research, an outcome which would have me wondering whether combat efficacy has been increased, but more likely it is a general 30% increase. Also of course, that is short of a full repeat test across various distances and for inhabited versus empty!

Our last measurement gave a 8.500 strength (I will take a review on this and adjust the buy order if needed).

If that Akbakara measurement was prior to Friday, I think you may need to check it again!

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

If that Akbakara measurement was prior to Friday, I think you may need to check it again!

It was re-mesuered this morning, so 8560 should be the correct number.

 

[Phill P]

Evidence to support a big hike in Alerts as well. Still looking into it but without some help they won't get cleared if the hike is as big as it seems to be. Everything seems to have got a hike on Friday after being the usual amounts Thursday night.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

It was re-mesuered this morning, so 8560 should be the correct number.

Thank you! That actually is a bit reassuring; it matches the previous estimate, so inhabited Control systems may be as they were before. It may be a change to the strength shape at inner distances though, so even if Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 and Obassi Osaw are similar, systems such as Ardhri and Warnones need checking in advance!

Evidence to support a big hike in Alerts as well. Still looking into it but without some help they won't get cleared if the hike is as big as it seems to be. Everything seems to have got a hike on Friday after being the usual amounts Thursday night.

Very interesting! This is quite unfortunate for the large one-year feedback review I have been writing, in which I praised the lack of strength changes generally, noting that only Alerts had a modest increase some weeks ago. The peripheral strength changes are noted as being too recent for feedback to be meaningful, but the other parts need updating now!

If inhabited Alerts are within your mission, by all means allow a few Invasions! I think that is the message there; stopping inhabited Alerts is a luxury where the norm is to have Invasions around.

 

[Kira Goto]

I think that is the message there; stopping inhabited Alerts is a luxury where the norm is to have Invasions around

I would also argue that, from a pure gameplay perspective, allowing a few invasions to slip here and there, especially if they are not high-difficulty or very unfavorable ones(such as Mahlina with one solitary outpost) will, certainly at the current stage of the war, hardly affect proceedings. With day 1 clears being well on the table, and a larger dedicated crowd that generally jumps into action whenever there is an invaded system… it makes the risk of actually losing any near-zero.

And I’m sure the sampler crews wouldn’t mind not having to do any last-minute rushes for four populated alerts, two of which are in the sub-20 ly range to a Titan, like last week. I’ve yet to see it labelled as a highly engaging and entertaining activity, at least…

 

[Phill P]

Very interesting! This is quite unfortunate for the large one-year feedback review I have been writing, in which I praised the lack of strength changes generally, noting that only Alerts had a modest increase some weeks ago. The peripheral strength changes are noted as being too recent for feedback to be meaningful, but the other parts need updating now!

Looks like sampling took a reduction and other activities did not. Rescues in Obamumbo seem to be good, INARA had reported 12000 at the time the system was at 56%, but from all the reports so far sampling is now less effective in Controls and Alerts. This may mean that stuff like combat in Controls and Alerts is better, and maybe other stuff like salvage, AX Reacs etc.

It's also quite annoying because it shows they could have adjusted the activity values at any time instead of just crudely upping or downing the total target for the system, so they could have made combat in Controls more meaningful months ago. This is just lazy.

Unpopulated Alerts have been hit hard. Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4 at 21.19 Ly took 848 samples today. Before that a system at that distance took around 340. We're continuing to gather numbers as we go but it looks bad. Over the top bad.

Populated Alerts have an increase too but a smaller one. Mahlina at 21.15 Ly we have calculated at 2952. Scythia at 20.23Ly was 2169 samples last time. There is some activity there but we're throwing a couple hundred samples at Scythia now to try and get a more accurate ballpark for the increase. I'm guessing around 30%, as has been reported for Controls.

If inhabited Alerts are within your mission, by all means allow a few Invasions! I think that is the message there; stopping inhabited Alerts is a luxury where the norm is to have Invasions around.

No I don't buy it, if that was true they wouldn't have gaslighted us all about Alerts in February as if we were all dumb and didn't know that's what we had to do, but couldn't because they massively increased the difficulty over new year with HIP 20485 being 4 times harder to clear in January than it had been before Xmas.

They want us to get past this stage, just at their pace, hence these latest shenanigans.

Besides, Invasions are still the lesser problem. Populated Alerts have had the smaller hit. It will represent a bigger one the further in we go, of course, but at present none of the populated Alerts have had the over 2x increase of the unpopulated ones.

The bigger problem is the unpopulated Alerts. They will become new Controls if not stopped, which impacts on anyone clearing Controls.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I recall that the difficulty dropped significantly in the very beginning as more Maelstroms arrived - I wonder if a reverse effect is somewhat intended as they are defeated (or at least unable to carry out their normal activities)?

With day 1 [invasion] clears being well on the table

Noting here that with significant changes in the profile for Alerts and Controls, it may well be that Invasions have changed too.

 

[Kira Goto]

Noting here that with significant changes in the profile for Alerts and Controls, it may well be that Invasions have changed too.

Probably, but given the support that they draw, I assumed it wouldn’t be a particular game changer. Unless they doubled their difficulty, which would be… also a bit extreme. (I did think of that but didn’t see it was that relevant to bring up.)

Could this be an intentional change to reflect the presence of spires resupplying the Titans, if it isn’t the forces of Taranis just deciding to go elsewhere, over doing nothing?

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Looks like sampling took a reduction and other activities did not.

If that is the case, Frontier has taken the quite strange approach of doing it for empty Control but not for inhabited Control! Either way, thank you for the extra detail regarding different activities—definitely if there is so much as a suspicion that such may have occurred, it warrants some combat testing in Control systems.

As an aside, it may be amusing to know that said feedback-in-progress also mentions those Alert-related comments—

We were given a quite influential line at one point:

• To paraphrase, it was strike not where they are, but where they are going to be.
• Understanding the attacks, our additional layer became strike not where they are nor where they are going to be, but at the platform they want to use next time.

 

[Phill P]

I recall that the difficulty dropped significantly in the very beginning as more Maelstroms arrived - I wonder if a reverse effect is somewhat intended as they are defeated (or at least unable to carry out their normal activities)?


Noting here that with significant changes in the profile for Alerts and Controls, it may well be that Invasions have changed too.

This has crossed my mind, with Taranis having no systems of its own perhaps it is still able to support the other Titans somehow, lend some energy to them or something, and make their systems harder to conquer. But then why did that not just happen after Thargsday?

If that is the case, Frontier has taken the quite strange approach of doing it for empty Control but not for inhabited Control! Either way, thank you for the extra detail regarding different activities—definitely if there is so much as a suspicion that such may have occurred, it warrants some combat testing in Control systems.

Combat, salvage, AX in signal sources in Alerts, AX Reacs, it all needs evaluating.

As an aside, it may be amusing to know that said feedback-in-progress also mentions those Alert-related comments—

It didn't even tell the whole story back then, taking out Alerts wouldn't stop new Alerts, that would only happen with Controls being taken out as well. It told us nothing we didn't already know by then either.

But the point is that this increase is not, as you thought, to make "invasions the norm". From the way Unpopulated Alerts have more than doubled while Populated Alerts and Controls have had a 30% increase, this has very obviously been done to try and create more Controls. So some of those people clearing Controls might wish to give some thought to clearing a few Alerts as well, if they don't want extra Controls to deal with.

You spooked them by taking out Taranis. I'd take that as a compliment, if it wasn't planned all along for the other Titans to get harder. And I don't think it was, or it would have happened automatically after Thargsday, not be god handed a day later.

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

Akbakara (MS Oya) news: aprox 3.500 of 8.560 are collected.

 

[Phill P]

Update on Scythia. It was 2169 a couple of weeks ago when we last cleared it. It is now 3444.

It's looking more and more likely that this is about trying to rapidly create more Controls as opposed to for any other reason, as a perhaps panicky reaction to Taranis being cleared.

 

[MartinG]

[delurk]

I've worked out what's going on there. If the station is too far from a system with a rescue ship, you get no missions. It's pretty dumb.

This cannot be right. I visited Ixbalan both in its first and second weeks of recovery (the first 2 weeks of November). In the first week, the mission boards were empty. In the second week, there were reactivation missions available.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

So—reading through the reports, I think we have something like:

• Empty Alert increased 150%, based on Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4.
• Inhabited Alert increased 60%, based on Scythia.
• Empty Control increased 30%, based on HIP 9643 and HIP 10118.
• Inhabited Control unchanged, based on Akbakara measuring as expected.

Does that look about right?

Additional: As a harvest strength, that is; one wonders whether Orthrus-hunting is now the way to clear empty Alerts, for example.