Good points.Now if it were a lack of trade, then I would expect all factions in these systems to go Outbreak or Famine at some point, or to do something randomly? That doesn't sound very FD to be honest when it comes to the BGS. Thats for Engineers is random.
Another theory out the window.One thing I haven't seen though, and that is a controlling faction, with no state change or infulence change succumb to Famine or Outbreak.
Edit: Just looked on the GM, and found a few including one that is 46.4% controlling and in Outbreak.
Remiss of me: I forgot to add to the list of knowns what FD have told us (but not necessarily reliable - there have been a number of other undocumented changes since we were given this info).
What we know about Famine and Outbreak version 3
1 Famine and Outbreak affect factions that have not had recent actions (missions, BH) applied to it.
2 If factions with Famine or Outbreak are ignored, there are no changes in their influence levels.
3 If factions with Famine or Outbreak are ignored, the condition will eventually time out and the faction restored as if nothing had happened.
4 Neither Famine nor Outbreak is contagious; other factions don't seem to catch either State. It is possible for other factions within the same system to also declare Famine/Outbreak, but it is not possible to know if this is related to the original State.
5 Both Famine and Outbreak appear in cluster, with these afflictions not appearing in some areas of space (contentious - we only observe relatively small regions - needs to be confirmed).
6 A Famine or Outbreak in a faction appears in other systems where the same faction has a presence (contentious - needs to be confirmed).
7 Famine and Outbreak conclude on the outbreak of War, Civil war or Election.
8 Famine: Has a countdown lasting 3 days.
9 Famine: Has a minimum length of 3 days
10 Famine: Has a maximum length of 28 days
11 Famine: Has a cooldown of 25 days.
12 Famine: Delivering food during a Famine removes 2 points from the Famine pool and adds 1 point to the Influence pool.
13 Famine: Selling Exploration data takes 1 point from the Famine pool.
14 Outbreak: Has a countdown lasting 4 days.
15 Outbreak: Has a minimum length of 3 days.
16 Outbreak: Has a maximum length of 28 days.
17 Outbreak: Has a cooldown period lasting 7 days.
18 Outbreak: Delivering medication during an Outbreak removes 2 points from the Outbreak pool and adds 1 point to the Influence pool.
19 Outbreak: Selling Exploration data takes 1 point from the Outbreak pool.
20 Outbreak: Triggered by low level standard of living and development level.
21 Outbreak: Decreases standard of living while active.