If your going to make a plausible critique, you could at least quote me accurately out of common courtesy.
General / Off-Topic The safest place
- Thread starter Robin of Spiritwood
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If your going to make a plausible critique, you could at least quote me accurately out of common courtesy.
It's a big country. It's probably wiser to view it in smaler sections, when determining the best approach.
New York seem a bit rough at the moment and could probably do with stricter measures than the rest.
I bet there are places/states that are practically unaffected. They could be better of by closing their boarders and continuing as normal.
Life goes on. Norway is up to 10% unemployment due to restrictions and changed habits. Many of those jobs will not be there when the dust settles. I'm glad I'm not prime minister at the moment.
Any wager that would include a prediction of events past May 15th, 2020 would need to allow for the potential of one or more peaks many months out, with potential for them only being eliminated by dramatically improved treatment (an unknowable factor at this point), or most everyone becoming immune (either via infection or vaccination). A year from May 15th, 2020 seems like a reasonable cut off. Of course it could end sooner if there is a peak in the deaths per day that exceeds any on or before May 15, 2020.
Alright, I guess this is us virtually shaking hands on this wager.
Just so we clear, if, once this is over, the peak in US deaths per day from COVID-19 occurred on or before May 15, 2020, I'll owe you one-thousand USD. If there is any higher peak daily death rate some point after that, but not after May 15, 2021, then you'll owe me the same.
Peak mortality doesn't necessarily mean half-way to anything. It could come close if there is a single large peak after which the disease vanishes. In the opposite scenario it could just be the introduction to a new norm, if it becomes endemic and a vaccine proves harder to nail down than expected. Aferall, H1N1 peaked in late 1918, but there was a second wave in 1919 and the virus strain has killed many thousands of people a year, every year, since...with those 100+ years after the largest peak almost certainly accounting for more total deaths.
I don't want to go down this rabbit hole, but its odd how few people who have spent the last five years telling anyone that open borders is the way to go, and if you don't agree or work to police them, then you're a damn facist, have been suspiciously quiet since this all began.
Despite this being one of the very things people with a more harsh outlook on border-control have been warning folk about.
Most of those in ostensibly free societies would scoff at the idea of restrictions on the internal movement of citizens in normal times, yet are willing to make exceptions to slow the spread of a pandemic.
This probably sums up how most open border advocates feel about international movement and there is nothing suspicious or contradictory about it.
Stronger border restrictions for non-residents also wouldn't likely have mattered much in this current pandemic. Non-residents weren't a major transmission vector into the States...Americans traveling abroad and then returning home were.
For measures to be most effective, there needs to be an overarching national Strategy, based on Data and science, as well as localized approaches based on the specific Situation . New York State, lets be thankfull Cuomo is in charge .
Oh for sure, I was simplifying to a single-wave normally distributed scenario. I ain't coming anywhere near a $1000 wager though. Way too rich for my blood!
Oh for sure, I was simplifying to a single-wave normally distributed scenario. I ain't coming anywhere near a $1000 wager though. Way too rich for my blood!
I figure the only way I can lose is if all these containment efforts amount to exactly nothing and a million people drop dead from COVID-19 in the next month and a half. If that does come to pass, I guess GJ51 will get my share of the bailout.
Could very well be.
I'm just glad we moved on from the weird "It'll be over in a matter of weeks." rhetoric. Sure, no problem mate:
Well, six weeks is still 'a matter of weeks' (it would need to be eight weeks before it was a matter of months!)...and still an exceedingly short timeline for things to get back to normal.
I'm not suggesting eradication.
The context was that the "crisis" would be over in a matter of weeks.
It was Morbad who wanted it quantified.
He then sought wagering clarification so I put forth 6 weeks would likely be past peak death rate per day.
The was just a report from a lab in Boston that an effective treatment might be ready for wide distribution by THIS Friday.
I don't think that anyone other than Jason or myself seems to be looking at all the positive news regarding things in the pipeline. For goodness sake, even Ford has announced it will turn pickup trucks into ventilators.
Some of you are as good as the fake news at twisting things to totally change the context of a simple statement.
Any positive news must be suppressed to maintain the hysteria.
The context was that the "crisis" would be over in a matter of weeks.
It was Morbad who wanted it quantified.
He then sought wagering clarification so I put forth 6 weeks would likely be past peak death rate per day.
The was just a report from a lab in Boston that an effective treatment might be ready for wide distribution by THIS Friday.
I don't think that anyone other than Jason or myself seems to be looking at all the positive news regarding things in the pipeline. For goodness sake, even Ford has announced it will turn pickup trucks into ventilators.
Some of you are as good as the fake news at twisting things to totally change the context of a simple statement.
Any positive news must be suppressed to maintain the hysteria.
And no - I haven't agreed to wait one year. I have no idea where you got the idea that I had.
My contention was that here in the US, the crisis would essentially be over in a matter of weeks. At your request, I quantified it as past peak deaths per day by May 15th. If the death toll is still rising in the US on 5/16/20 I will concede that I was overly optimistic. If not my point is proven. Winner to pay on 5/16/2020.
Those were and are my terms. Feel free to accept or reject.
If anyone has followed and can point to anything I've posted that contradicts this summation I will honor anything previously stated.
Did we or did we not just pass 200 cases in New Zealand? The government just started including probably in the case tally (just confirmed cases before). That brought us to 202 in 3 days, so we are not on a particularly pretty curve at the moment.
If we don't count probably cases, we are still in the 180s. So we might not reach 200 until today. That's a slightly flatter curve, and it might get even flatter as we today are on the first day of the national 4-week home quarantine.
S
If we don't count probably cases, we are still in the 180s. So we might not reach 200 until today. That's a slightly flatter curve, and it might get even flatter as we today are on the first day of the national 4-week home quarantine.
SDid we or did we not just pass 200 cases in New Zealand? The government just started including probably in the case tally (just confirmed cases before). That brought us to 202 in 3 days, so we are not on a particularly pretty curve at the moment.
If we don't count probably cases, we are still in the 180s. So we might not reach 200 until today. That's a slightly flatter curve, and it might get even flatter as we today are on the first day of the national 4-week home quarantine.
205 confirmed
0 deaths
22 recovered
COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
coronavirus.jhu.edu
So, if there are a thousand deaths recorded on May 15th, but only 900 deaths on May 16th, then ten-thousand deaths on June 2nd (or whatever), how would that prove your point?
By your bizarre rationale, you'd be right if you called March 4th, 2020 the peak of Italy's COVID-19 mortality rate, despite it still being on a exponentially rising curve, because one more person died that day than on March 5th.
No one, no matter how confident they are that death rates will not yet have come anywhere near their peak by that date, would accept such terms.
So, unless you want to rephrase those terms to actually reflect our positions, and allow for enough time to see where the death rates end up, I'm obviously going to reject them.
Making the terms a matter of public record was the idea and since this forum is the only place I've interacted with GJ51 it was the obvious choice.
I don't know about the specifics of the contention between Morbad and GJ51, but I'm more in line with GJ51's message of positivity and confidence that within a matter of weeks we'll see the worst of this behind us. I don't feel the need to nail it down to the exact week, but I believe that there is reason for hope.
Press release from the lab interviewed, for those who have already clicked too many links in this thread and have run into Washington Post's paywall:
Johns Hopkins APL Biologists Sequencing Genome of the Virus Causing COVID-19
Inside the molecular diagnostics laboratory at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, while health care workers and hospital staff work tirelessly to process patient tests to detect the virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, two biologists from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory are...
www.jhuapl.edu
Oh, I am quite positive and confident that it is possible to contain this in a way casualty count will be limited to some extent. I can also see this be over in two months. Don't see how both can happen though.There will be no controlled herd immunity in two months. There wont be a vaccine in two months. So there is only one way for this to end in two months...
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