Why are we focused on expansion to Sol, and not Delphi?
With the geography of the bubble, you'd pretty much have to go past/near Sol anyway to get onto the AEGIS bridge joining the Sol and Maia system clusters together, and that's the only way to reach Delphi

With the relative distances involved, it would take 3 ideally-placed expansions to get to/near Sol and at least 18 ideally-placed expansions to get to Delphi. However, with the system and faction densities that's not possible in practice and it will likely require several months of preparatory work, including intermediate expansions, targeted expansion and retreat of other factions, balancing of faction influences across huge regions, fighting past or going around particular PMF/Powerplay territories, etc. to get each one of those "milestone" expansions in the right direction.

The expansion rules tend to cause factions to expand in a roughly spherical pattern unless very carefully directed. On undirected expansion it would take TDW roughly 1000 expansions to reach Sol (minimum time about 4 decades) and about 20,000 to reach Delphi (minimum time about 8 centuries). Careful work to hint that TDW should expand in particular directions can of course shorten this, but nevertheless I'd be very surprised if TDW were within 20LY of Sol by this time next year - this is a very interesting project but also an extremely large and long-term one.
 
That's not entirely true.

If the statement is correct that Raxxla is in a system which has had at least one player visit before June 2017, then this implies one of two things.

1) Given the number of systems in the galaxy, and the number of explored systems by June 2017, CMDRs collectively beat odds greater than 5000:1 to happen across its system by chance.

2) Raxxla is positioned close to the bubble or another obvious POI making early discovery more likely. This implies that as there's been much more exploration carried out since June 2017 than before it that there's a good chance that there have been other CMDR visitors to the system since, who also haven't noticed it, or there will be in the near future.

Obviously of the two scenario '2' is much more likely, which implies it's fairly well concealed (by various methods) even to someone carrying out 'normal' exploration activities in the system (which would have been easier pre-FSS than post-FSS)

To an extent this is true; however even before 2017 people were attempting deep exploration trips, rim circumnavigations, Beagle Point expeditions, Sag A* trips , etc. Plus we have no way of finding what systems have been explored/honked by other players from FD / within-game. We could assess from EDSM reports before the alleged date, but there is no guarantee that anyone who may have honked a system reported it to EDSM. Hence my reasoning for saying the statement under question does not give us a lead on the localisation of Raxxla. Though it would indicate Raxxla is a thing that could be noticed/detected (somehow) in a normal system which can be visited and is not permit-locked, and refute any of the many other reasons that people have dreamt up to explain why it hasn’t yet been found.

But since the alleged source is not commenting to either confirm or deny it then this rumour is still hearsay. I dont mean to impugn the guys who say they were there and heard him say it, but it remains hearsay until he confirms it. 🙂

Edit: I was only interested in validating this rumour, so I’ll bow out! 🙂
 
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That's not entirely true.

If the statement is correct that Raxxla is in a system which has had at least one player visit before June 2017, then this implies one of two things.

1) Given the number of systems in the galaxy, and the number of explored systems by June 2017, CMDRs collectively beat odds greater than 5000:1 to happen across its system by chance.

2) Raxxla is positioned close to the bubble or another obvious POI making early discovery more likely. This implies that as there's been much more exploration carried out since June 2017 than before it that there's a good chance that there have been other CMDR visitors to the system since, who also haven't noticed it, or there will be in the near future.

Obviously of the two scenario '2' is much more likely, which implies it's fairly well concealed (by various methods) even to someone carrying out 'normal' exploration activities in the system (which would have been easier pre-FSS than post-FSS)
IF Raxxla is a planet. It may not be.
 
IF Raxxla is a planet. It may not be.

Mmm, no!
the fact that it should be detectable in a system that someone has allegedly visited (which remains as hearsay) does not imply Raxxla is a planet. Could be, or it could be a ship of some form (have long hypothesised a Guardian ark ship since Ram Tah said there should be 3 of these, and the name sounds alien) ), or a new (to us) astronomical object ( the journal manual allows for several things we haven’t yet seen in-game such as Exotic Star, Rogue Planet, etc).

The only things the statement (if true) implies is that it is not in a permit-locked system (or if it is we can get the permit) and it should be detectable. The fact that it (allegedly) wasn’t detected could mean a couple of things: it is outside the detection range of ship scanner of that time, or the (alleged) player did not have a scanner working/fitted, or that it cannot be detected by ship scanners and must be detected otherwise (e.g. mk1 eyeball alone).

But this discussion is derailing the purpose of this worthy thread and belongs more properly in the Quest for Raxxla thread. 🙂
Good luck commanders!
 
My mission is to find Raxxla and gain membership of The Dark Wheel, not to chase rumours.
However, the forum mechanism wouldn’t allow me to PM Michael Brookes directly to ask him to confirm or deny whether he was the source of the statement that a player had been in the system containing Raxxla but hadn’t noticed it. So I have sent the PM to Stephen Benedetti to ask him or Michael to provide clarification directly in this thread. 🙂

I note that the statement gives us no clue to the location of Raxxla, however confirmation that Michael did indeed say it would move this rumour from the status of hearsay to strong evidence, and would indirectly confirm that Raxxla is findable in game and is not permit locked or even hidden as a comment in the game source code.
As already stated and explained above your assumption is completely wrong. Here is just ONE of the MANY ways in which your assumption (EXACTLY AS YOU CHOOSE TO WORD IT IN THIS POST) could be wrong.

1. MB confirms that his statement was made exactly as you word it here.
2. Raxxla exists on Lave 2 (which is permit locked)

in the above example (Which to clarify yet again I am not stating is a fact but rather is just one of the many possible truths which would disprove your entire assumption) MB could respond with absolute truth that someone was in the system (Lave) and had not found Raxxla and this experiment could be vital (if getting TDW to Lave were to suddenly trigger TDW in SHINDEZ to suddenly start issuing Lave 2 permits) to finding it.

So to sum up, while I am perfectly accepting of your right to hold your assumptions I completely reject your attempts to insert them into our experiment. That said, I do not think you will have ANY luck getting any official statement on this matter other than “we do not comment on Raxxla” but if you did that would be awesome!
 
That's not entirely true.

If the statement is correct that Raxxla is in a system which has had at least one player visit before June 2017, then this implies one of two things.

1) Given the number of systems in the galaxy, and the number of explored systems by June 2017, CMDRs collectively beat odds greater than 5000:1 to happen across its system by chance.

2) Raxxla is positioned close to the bubble or another obvious POI making early discovery more likely. This implies that as there's been much more exploration carried out since June 2017 than before it that there's a good chance that there have been other CMDR visitors to the system since, who also haven't noticed it, or there will be in the near future.

Obviously of the two scenario '2' is much more likely, which implies it's fairly well concealed (by various methods) even to someone carrying out 'normal' exploration activities in the system (which would have been easier pre-FSS than post-FSS)
While I tend to share your line of thinking I would point out that your point 2 carries a hugely flawed assumption in the first couple words. You state there that if it was in a system visited by 2017 it must be close to the bubble. I would point out that while we already have OTHER lore reasons to suspect that it is close to the bubble by 2017 Beagle point had already been visited. This is damn near the farthest point currently accessible in game (like under 800ly from Salome’s reach). So while I actually agree with the spirit of your assumption I recognize it as an assumption of my own and am being quite explicitly clear to leave that assumption of mine out of our experiment.
 
1. MB confirms that his statement was made exactly as you word it here.
2. Raxxla exists on Lave 2 (which is permit locked)

in the above example (Which to clarify yet again I am not stating is a fact but rather is just one of the many possible truths which would disprove your entire assumption) MB could respond with absolute truth that someone was in the system (Lave) and had not found Raxxla and this experiment could be vital (if getting TDW to Lave were to suddenly trigger TDW in SHINDEZ to suddenly start issuing Lave 2 permits) to finding it.
The only issue with this is that we know Raxxla is not on Lave 2. Lave 2 was permit locked at the request of Allen James Stroud, author of Elite: Lave Revolution. In the book there is a reference to a "micro-colony" or something or the other. I assume that since there was no way to model it (or no willingness) in game, the author and FDev agreed upon it being permit locked. Nothing to do with Raxxla.
 
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Why are we focused on expansion to Sol, and not Delphi?

It's notable that Delphi in mythology was the "centre of the world," and is directly linked with TDW through the rumours of the Omphalos Rift. Additionally, Delphi was renamed at the same time as the addition of TDW and Raxxla to the Knowledge Base.

Not to mention, TDWs (or CEIP) human-thargoid experimentation in Soontill, the thargoid connection in Delphi seems worth investigation
Cool idea for an experiment and I highly encourage you to start one. As for us we will be completing our experiment before looking for other projects to start. Best wishes on your endeavo!
 
I have reached out to Mike through other means and all he can say is "No Comment" I would ask that no one else bugs him about this since non of us want to make Frontier staffers feel uncomfortable.

Cmdr Eid LeWeise
Which is exactly why I said that CMDR Ascorbius was conflating the issue. Given Mr. Brooks can only say "No comment" absolutely means that "Frontier" has NOT said that a CMDR has been to the system in which Raxxla resides. If he could comment, then maybe that would be a different story.
 
To an extent this is true; however even before 2017 people were attempting deep exploration trips, rim circumnavigations, Beagle Point expeditions, Sag A* trips , etc. Plus we have no way of finding what systems have been explored/honked by other players from FD / within-game. We could assess from EDSM reports before the alleged date, but there is no guarantee that anyone who may have honked a system reported it to EDSM. Hence my reasoning for saying the statement under question does not give us a lead on the localisation of Raxxla. Though it would indicate Raxxla is a thing that could be noticed/detected (somehow) in a normal system which can be visited and is not permit-locked, and refute any of the many other reasons that people have dreamt up to explain why it hasn’t yet been found.

But since the alleged source is not commenting to either confirm or deny it then this rumour is still hearsay. I dont mean to impugn the guys who say they were there and heard him say it, but it remains hearsay until he confirms it. 🙂

Edit: I was only interested in validating this rumour, so I’ll bow out! 🙂
While I agree with the vast majority of your statement I would point out Triton in Sol system, Lave 2 in Lave system and ALL of the non landable worlds in the galaxy as possible locations for Raxxla. All of which(whose systems had been visited prior to the statement) would still make the statement true that someone could be in the system and yet have no hope of noticing it.
 
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While I agree with the vast majority of your statement I would point out Triton in Sol system, Lave 2 in Lave system and ALL of the non landable worlds in the galaxy as possible locations for Raxxla. All of which would still make the statement true that someone could be in the system and yet have no hope of noticing it.

If you’re being pedantic I did say permit-locked system, not permit-locked planet!
 
Which is exactly why I said that CMDR Ascorbius was conflating the issue. Given Mr. Brooks can only say "No comment" absolutely means that "Frontier" has NOT said that a CMDR has been to the system in which Raxxla resides. If he could comment, then maybe that would be a different story.

FALSE

It is entirely possible (In fact I believe it to be true) that MB chose to make the statement at that event (as we have multiple credible witnesses attesting to) In which he was publicly appearing on behalf of Frontier as a spokesman for the company at an official Q&A for Lavecon and therefore was speaking directly for Frontier. And yet now if asked ANYTHING on the subject he could choose to (or no longer be allowed to) comment on the matter. The fact that you state that this quite reasonably plausible set of facts is “impossible“ is quite confusing to me but I will attempt to illustrate my point thusly. Despite the fact that I am saying all of this on a public forum and it’s clearly (as a statement by me only) a matter of undisputable record. I will henceforth and for the rest of my life never respond to any line of questioning about this very statement other than to say: NO COMMENT.
 
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FALSE

It is entirely possible (In fact I believe it to be true) that MB chose to make the statement at that event (as we have multiple credible witnesses attesting to) In which he was publicly appearing on behalf of Frontier as a spokesman for the company at an official Q&A for Lavecon and therefore was speaking directly for Frontier. And yet now if asked ANYTHING on the subject he could choose to (or no longer be allowed to) comment on the matter. The fact that you state that this quite reasonably plausible set of facts is “impossible“ is quite confusing to me but I will attempt to illustrate my point thusly. Despite the fact that I am saying all of this on a public forum and it’s clearly (as a statement by me only) a matter of undisputable record. I will henceforth and for the rest of my life never respond to any line of questioning about this very statement with: NO COMMENT.
Carry on, then, CMDR. Best of luck to you in your endeavors. Seems I'm needed in Riedquat. Some war or the other going on...
 
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