For me, the Pending State can be "extended" if a conflict holds it up by starting on the 1st or second day pending. It can be cut short if it starts after the 4th pending day.
I have witnessed expansions last 1 day, then end early into the new system because of a conflict. Or a pending expansion held back for 11 days before it starts.
I concur. I should have been more specific. My bad. I've seen an expansion fail when a conflict and expansion went active on the same day. I've also seen an expansion complete when both went active on the same day. I think it has to do with when the tick resolves the states. If one resolves before the other on multiple passes, it might take precedence. Or maybe not. It's fairly clear that the tick takes multiple passes to resolve the states/influence though.