Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster · Apr 27, 2023

Ideas so far (not ruled out yet):

Recapturing eight [1] (as opposed to seven last week) control systems at a Maelstrom in a single week gives a bonus reduction in Alert capacity
Recapturing ten or eleven (as opposed to nine last week) control systems globally in a single week gives a bonus reduction in Alert capacity
Just one of those things

Ideas so far (unlikely)

Leigong-style invisible Alert. The total Alert count on the summary matches at 39 the number visible on the map, unlike in the Leigong situation
The Thargoid process sets a list+reserves at the start of the week, of finite length. I don't think this one works - last week cleared out as many potential systems from the original list without stopping them, and it would be an unusual mechanism compared with the other simulations.
The undocumented extra weeks of recovery confused it. But they seem to have been fine with that elsewhere and in other weeks.
The gap between Bi Dhorora and MR-M is too large and it doesn't want to get too far out of spherical. Thor's gap is even larger with no issue, though.
No available control systems. Even if for some reason the ones on the prediction were all unavailable, L2 Puppis was next in line with 5 separate Controls targeting it. We should be long past the stage where even Thor can't find 5 targets a week.

[1] Lucky number?

Ian Doncaster · Apr 27, 2023

Prediction quality:

Taranis: 100%
Leigong: 100%
Indra: 80% (HIP 20890 went to an extra Recovery week)
Oya: 100%
Cocijo: 100%
Thor: 60% (Unktety went to extra Recovery, while HL-O c6-15 from SI-T d3-89 was skipped)
Raijin: 100%
Hadad: 80%? 75%? (Muruidooges went to extra Recovery, 4 of top 5 predicted correctly, but number of alerts also mispredicted)

Doesn't look like there's a lot we can do at this stage to deal with systems having 4-week recoveries but being shown right up until the cycle as being 3-week scheduled in-game. Flagging them as dubious is going to have to be it for now; maybe U15 will happen to fix the bug.

HL-O c6-15 was a data entry error on my part rather than a model flaw: SI-T d3-89 had clearly been used the previous week but I didn't put it in the exceptions file properly.

Ian Doncaster · Apr 27, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 27 April

No changes to the model this time other than to accept that we can't predict 4-week recoveries for now and add extra reserves to affected maelstroms.

30 of the 40 overall are predicted to be inhabited, which would be the highest ever - even allowing for extended recoveries and some redirections at Hadad there's a very high chance of equalling the 26 hit on 23 February.
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Calculating Taranis
Read 125 control systems and 870 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Imeut	19.13	7	7*	HIP 25670; Hyades Sector FB-N b7-3; HIP 25679; etc	Yes	0.8
Ebisu	21.05	5	5	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86; etc	Yes	0.1
HIP 26688	21.94	5	4.4	HIP 25670; HIP 25679; Matshiru; etc	Yes	0.4
Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5	23.98	3	2.6	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87; Hyades Sector AV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-76;	Yes	-0.1
Vukurbeh	24.25	2	1.5	Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1; Matshiru;	Yes	0.8
Paeni	26.73	4	4	29 e Orionis; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; etc	Yes	0.3
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6	26.92	1	0.8	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5;	No	0.6
Lovaroju	26.93	3	3	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11; Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5;	Yes	-1
Namayu	27.10	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4;	Yes	0.5

All fairly high confidence this time, though a chance of getting to Paeni if Imeut goes to four weeks.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 164 control systems and 831 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Garongxians	28.15	4	4	Jementi; Ceti Sector XJ-A c18; HIP 10616; etc	Yes	0.8
Wolf 121	28.92	1	0.8	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2;	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector UO-R b4-4	30.97	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-3;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-3	32.08	3	2.8	HIP 10616; Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-4; Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.8
Heng	34.11	2	1.1	HIP 10616; Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-4;	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-3	35.37	2	0.8	Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-4; Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4	36.03	3	3	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-2; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0;	No	0.7
Ceti Sector ZU-Y b3	36.45	3	3	Ceti Sector ZU-Y b1; Ceti Sector ZU-Y b2; HIP 6679;	No	0.8
Dao Tzu	36.64	1	0.2	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.59	2	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.32	3	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.33	3	2.7	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8

Some low-confidence estimates here: in theory if HIP 10616 hits Garongxians and then YJ-R b4-4 hits CQ-P b5-3, there'll be nothing left for Heng. In practice, they'll probably get all three.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 149 control systems and 845 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20485	21.44	25	25	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; Hyadum I; etc	Yes	1
HIP 19157	21.65	1	1*	Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;	Yes	-0.6
HIP 20890	21.89	16	15.6	HIP 20577; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	Yes	0.9
Kagutsuchi	22.50	2	2	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20899	23.09	24	22.5	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20491	23.34	6	5.9	HIP 20480; HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	Yes	0.4
HIP 20492	24.04	22	20.2	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.29	7	6	HIP 20480; HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	No	0.6

Another potential for a 4-week recovery to throw things off but otherwise this is pretty densely-packed space.

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Calculating Oya
Read 80 control systems and 915 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Lahua	19.36	3	3	Tougeir; Muchihiks; Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	Yes	0.9
HIP 6913	20.36	4	4	HR 1107; HIP 3006; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-1; etc	Yes	-0
Gliese 9035	20.49	4	4	HIP 10778; Daruwach; Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; etc	Yes	-0.5
Minawara	23.42	3	3	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	Yes	0.6
Poqomathi	24.14	4	4	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2; etc	Yes	0.6
Chelka	25.05	1	1	Cephei Sector ZE-A d69;	Yes	-0.5
HIP 38225	26.96	2	1.8	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3
Orong	27.13	3	2	HR 1107; Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	-0.2
Benanekpeno	27.19	2	1.1	HR 1107; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	0

If true this would be exactly the same set of Alerts as three weeks ago, which is what the Oya defense strategy should expect to be directing the Thargoids to.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 197 control systems and 796 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10	27.85	2	2	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4;	No	0.4
Asletae	28.54	3	3	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Picenile; Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7;	Yes	0.9
Laumas	29.27	8	8*	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes	0.5
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.07	3	3	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5;	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1	30.12	3	3	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-1; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10;	No	-1
HIP 39468	30.34	7	7	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6	30.35	3	3	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5

Might miss Laumas but otherwise these all look pretty solid

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 160 control systems and 834 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Unktety	25.36	1	1	HIP 19198;	Yes	1
HIP 21724	29.66	1	1	Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89;	Yes	0
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4	30.23	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15	38.45	4	4	Almar; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-14; Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-4; etc	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3	38.91	3	2.3	Almar; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-14; Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-4;	No	0.3
Mangwutja	39.71	2	2	Auaker; Col 285 Sector GL-O c6-15;	Yes	0.8
Warimpe	40.40	2	1	Auaker; Col 285 Sector GL-O c6-15;	Yes	0.8
HIP 18513	40.47	1	1	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-19	40.75	1	0.8	Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5	41.27	4	3.5	HIP 21548; Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4; etc	No	0.5
HIP 22031	41.34	3	1.5	HIP 21548; Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3;	No	0.6
HIP 18271	41.46	1	1	Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-48;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2	41.48	1	1	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3	41.50	1	1	HIP 20807;	No	0.1

Assuming I didn't mess up again with the inactive system list, there's a good chance of a 100% here despite the low paper confidence.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 165 control systems and 829 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 116360	20.90	3	3*	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3;	Yes	-0.5
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4	21.14	5	5	HIP 112823; Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; etc	No	0.9
Holvandalla	21.48	10	10	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes	0.6
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3	23.83	5	4.8	HIP 112823; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; etc	No	0.8
Isla	23.90	4	4	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2; HIP 116542; Wanmi; etc	Yes	-0.1
HIP 117177	24.76	1	1	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6;	Yes	-0.1
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7	26.93	5	5	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; HIP 115162; Nibelaako; etc	No	-0
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.94	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8

One potential extended recovery, otherwise pretty solid in the top 5.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 150 control systems and 845 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.22	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Muruidooges	18.37	6	5	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2; Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; etc	Yes	0.6
Vogulu	20.73	3	2.3	Montioch; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Putas	23.05	1	0.8	Fotlandjera;	Yes	0.5
HIP 28150	31.08	1	1*	HIP 28913;	Yes	0.8
Col 285 Sector FQ-O c6-4	31.51	2	2	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector FQ-O c6-3;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-5	32.23	1	1	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-61;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2	32.86	1	1	Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0;	No	-0.4
L2 Puppis	33.07	5	5	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.10	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8

Five inhabited ones on the top list, so this will test the local strategy a bit. MR-M and below we're on to the unpopulated systems Hadad didn't take as a 5th last time. The earlier hypothesis says that Vogulu could in theory be protected with just the RH- as Montioch will be used on HIP 29596, though this probably isn't the easiest test site for that.

RMLak2117 · Apr 28, 2023

I'm searching for definitions of the columns, not having much luck, Besides Distance - assuming that's LY - and Inhabited as a boolean, how can the significance of Controls, Confidence and Advance be assessed? Alos, by Attackers, are these the systems most likely to contribute to an Alert state?

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Lahua	19.36	3	3	Tougeir; Muchihiks; Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	Yes	0.9
HIP 6913	20.36	4	4	HR 1107; HIP 3006; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-1; etc	Yes	-0
Gliese 9035	20.49	4	4	HIP 10778; Daruwach; Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; etc	Yes	-0.5
Minawara	23.42	3	3	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	Yes	0.6
Poqomathi	24.14	4	4	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2; etc	Yes	0.6
Chelka	25.05	1	1	Cephei Sector ZE-A d69;	Yes	-0.5
HIP 38225	26.96	2	1.8	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3
Orong	27.13	3	2	HR 1107; Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	-0.2
Benanekpeno	27.19	2	1.1	HR 1107; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	0

Ian Doncaster · Apr 28, 2023

RMLak2117 said:
I'm searching for definitions of the columns, not having much luck, Besides Distance - assuming that's LY - and Inhabited as a boolean, how can the significance of Controls, Confidence and Advance be assessed? Alos, by Attackers, are these the systems most likely to contribute to an Alert state?

Ah, sorry - I documented all these columns week by week the first time they were added, but it should have something in the template to explain them on each report. I'll add it for next time.

The easy ones first:
Distance: yes, this is LY from the Maelstrom
Inhabited: yes, just whether the system has any human population or not
Controls: the number of control systems believed to be able to potentially trigger this alert, based on distance and not having already been definitely used up
Attackers: which control systems they are (or a partial list, since showing all of HIP 20485's 25 potential attackers is a bit pointless)
Advance: varies from +1 for a move which goes directly from the Maelstrom towards Sol, to -1 to one which goes directly away, with 0 being one which is perpendicular to the Sol-Maelstrom line. Technically the normalised dot product of "Maelstrom-Alert" and "Maelstrom-Sol" vectors.

The more complicated one:
Confidence: how much you should believe this is likely to happen. Basically, there are two areas we have incomplete data on.

We don't know which Control systems actually placed last week's Alerts, or which will place this week's earlier Alerts. So, for example, say that HR 1107 is used to attack HIP 6913. It then can't be used to attack Orong (should it for some reason get that far into the reserve list), so while it's got three controls in range, it might be that only two are usable. Or it might use HIP 3006 to attack HIP 6913, and then all three can still attack Orong - but unless it uses Ipken, that's one fewer which can attack Benanekpeno.
So this is indicated by the number in the confidence column - at most it will be the same as the number of controls, but it can be a lot less.
It's an arbitrary number with no units as such, but in practice you can read >=2 as almost certain, and <1 as very possible to skip. Most of the ones in the 1-2 range will also be hit but it only takes one data entry error or similar for a '1' to be a misprediction.
We don't know which 3-week recoveries are going to suddenly get a bonus week and run for 4 instead. Until and unless Frontier fix the interface, systems which might not actually be ready to attack again for this reason - none at Oya this time, but most of the others have one - get a '*' to indicate that they might be unexpectedly ineligible and so it'll need to go further down the list.

Ian Doncaster · May 2, 2023

Updated predictions for Leigong:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Garongxians	28.15	3	3	Jementi; Ceti Sector XJ-A c18; Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2;	Yes	0.8
Wolf 121	28.92	1	0.7	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2;	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector UO-R b4-4	30.97	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-3;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-3	32.08	1	1	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4	36.03	3	3	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-2; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0;	No	0.7
Ceti Sector ZU-Y b3	36.45	3	3	Ceti Sector ZU-Y b1; Ceti Sector ZU-Y b2; HIP 6679;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.59	2	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.32	3	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.33	3	2.7	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8
HIP 6001	39.69	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-13;	No	-0.5
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2	39.83	4	4	Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; HIP 11309; Arietis Sector FG-Y d49; etc	No	-0.6

It would be interesting if Wolf 121 did get skipped, as that would disprove the "attack with the Control closest to the Maelstrom" theory.

and Hadad:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.22	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Muruidooges	18.37	5	4	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2; Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; etc	Yes	0.6
Vogulu	20.73	3	2.3	Montioch; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-5	32.23	1	1	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-61;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2	32.86	1	1	Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0;	No	-0.4
L2 Puppis	33.07	5	5	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.10	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3	33.11	1	1	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-5	33.19	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-6	33.22	2	2	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2;	No	-1

Recaptures at Oya are cleanup outside the Alert perimeter they've established, so don't change the prediction.

Ian Doncaster · May 4, 2023

Final assessment:

Taranis: 100%
Leigong: 100%
Indra: 100%
Oya: 100%
Cocijo: 100%
Thor: 100%
Raijin: 100%
Hadad: 100% if you don't count that we don't know why there wasn't a fifth this week either. Four for four, though.

As the number of invasions allowed to reach a second week is currently low, the 3/4-week recovery issue is less likely to derail the predictions. And it looks like our model has their priorities and cooldowns pinned down well ... just in time for Update 15 to potentially throw the whole thing away

Which just leaves the question of what's going on in Hadad.

Ruled out:

8 recaptures at a single Maelstrom damages their capacity for the next week

Still possible:

8 recaptures in a week at a single Maelstrom damages their capacity more persistently
10+ recaptures in total takes an Alert off the Maelstrom with the largest individual recapture count
There's something about Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22 specifically which not only means Hadad won't expand there, but it stops placing Alerts entirely at that point rather than skipping it

In science terms, the experiment most likely to get results would be to recapture 8+ control systems (and also more than Hadad gets) at a different Maelstrom. But this might not be the right week to try anything that radical.

Ian Doncaster · May 4, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 4 May
Obviously this has great potential to be affected by Update 15 changing strategies. Despite the 100% success last week, it might go completely wrong this time.

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

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Calculating Taranis
Read 125 control systems and 868 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cao Tzu	21.52	4	4	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86; Hyades Sector AV-O b6-4; etc	Yes	-0
HIP 21991	25.79	2	2	Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5; Hyades Sector GW-M b7-5;	Yes	0.4
HR 1812	26.62	1	0.5	Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1;	Yes	0.8
Paeni	26.73	4	4	29 e Orionis; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; etc	Yes	0.3
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6	26.92	1	1	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5;	No	0.6
Lovaroju	26.93	3	3	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11; Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5;	Yes	-1
Namayu	27.10	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4;	Yes	0.5
Ge	27.68	5	4.8	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; etc	Yes	0.2
HIP 26926	28.17	4	3.2	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; etc	Yes	0.3

On the "nearest usable Control" theory, KR-W b1-1 was used last week to attack Vukurbeh, and so this is most likely to be skipped for Lovaroju. On other theories there's still a decent chance of this happening anyway. It'll be interesting to see what we actually get.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 164 control systems and 831 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Lunguni	23.23	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-3;	Yes	0.5
Baudani	24.96	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1	26.25	1	1	HIP 8078;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12	27.42	1	1	Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93;	No	0.9
Arietis Sector GG-Y d63	34.47	1	1	HIP 11134;	Yes	0.3
Ceti Sector ZU-Y b3	36.45	3	3	Ceti Sector ZU-Y b1; Ceti Sector ZU-Y b2; HIP 6679;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.59	2	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.32	3	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.33	3	2.7	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8
HIP 6001	39.69	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-13;	No	-0.5
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2	39.83	4	4	Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; HIP 11309; Arietis Sector FG-Y d49; etc	No	-0.6
HIP 10710	40.03	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d68;	No	-0.2
Hyades Sector CB-O b6-0	40.52	2	1.8	Hyades Sector CB-O b6-1; HIP 11309;	No	-0.8

Five single-source attacks in the top five. In theory these should all be solid moves regardless as there's no sign that any of those five were used last week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 151 control systems and 843 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20491	23.34	6	6	HIP 20480; HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	Yes	0.4
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4	23.65	1	1	Hyades Sector WK-L a9-2;	No	-0.5
HIP 20492	24.04	22	22	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HIP 19757	24.52	4	4	HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; etc	Yes	0.1
HIP 20019	25.58	19	18.3	HIP 20577; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	Yes	1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.29	7	6.2	HIP 20480; HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	No	0.6
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.47	7	5.8	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 21380	26.61	8	6.2	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes	0.8

Again, this all looks pretty solid

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 76 control systems and 919 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Luggerates	21.96	7	7	Sambaho; HIP 4041; HIP 3006; etc	Yes	0.3
Aowicha	23.77	6	6	Daruwach; Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; Cephei Sector AV-Y b4; etc	Yes	-0.3
Juipedun	24.11	1	1	Bumbo;	Yes	0.9
Khondo Po	24.33	1	1	Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1;	Yes	-0.8
Chelka	25.05	1	1	Cephei Sector ZE-A d69;	Yes	-0.5
Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3	25.37	2	2	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2; Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5;	No	0.1
HIP 38225	26.96	2	2	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3
Orong	27.13	3	2.5	HR 1107; Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	-0.2
Benanekpeno	27.19	3	1.5	HR 1107; Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	0
Elboongzi	27.39	1	1	Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5;	Yes	-0.9
SPOCS 280	27.39	1	1	Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	No	0.9
Cephei Sector YZ-Y b4	27.57	2	1.8	Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; HIP 4617;	Yes	-0.6

Some lower-confidence estimates, but I think they should all go through anyway

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 198 control systems and 793 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25	29.28	2	2	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5;	No	-0.8
HIP 39468	30.34	7	7	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6	30.35	3	3	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-2	30.38	1	1	Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-51;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-101	30.41	1	1	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.45	4	3.9	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3; etc	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-3	30.53	1	1	Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-2;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.64	5	4.6	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4	30.71	4	3.5	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; etc	No	-0.9

Fairly high confidence in all of these, too. Cocijo potentially provided a bit of respite from the inhabited-heavy attacks elsewhere.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 163 control systems and 830 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2	35.48	2	2	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3; Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No	-0.4
Mangwutja	39.71	1	1	Col 285 Sector GL-O c6-15;	Yes	0.8
Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-13	40.19	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-1;	No	-0.3
HIP 18513	40.47	1	0.5	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-19	40.75	1	1	Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5	41.27	4	4	HIP 21548; Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4; etc	No	0.5
HIP 22031	41.34	3	2.5	HIP 21548; Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3;	No	0.6
HIP 18271	41.46	1	1	Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-48;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2	41.48	1	1	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3	41.50	1	1	HIP 20807;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-6	42.06	2	1.1	HIP 21548; Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-5;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-4	42.10	1	1	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1	42.12	2	2	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3; HIP 16798;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-2	42.50	2	2	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-22;	No	0.6

Again, the "first Control" theory would suggest HIP 18513 will be skipped because LB-O c6-3 will be used higher up and c6-1 can't reach it.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 168 control systems and 826 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Nu Guang	19.33	1	1	Snoqui;	Yes	0.9
Bormuninus	24.36	4	4	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes	-0.3
HIP 117177	24.76	1	1	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6;	Yes	-0.1
Jawul	26.67	2	2	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes	0.2
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7	26.93	5	5	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; HIP 115162; Nibelaako; etc	No	-0
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.94	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
HIP 116052	26.96	4	4	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-112; Wanmi; etc	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.97	10	10	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.2
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.01	4	4	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No	0.9

All looks fairly solid here

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 147 control systems and 848 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Yan Zangata	22.38	3	3	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10; HIP 30158; Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1;	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2	32.86	1	1	Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0;	No	-0.4
L2 Puppis	33.07	5	5	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.10	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3	33.11	1	1	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-5	33.19	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-6	33.22	2	2	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2;	No	-1
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-2	33.27	5	5	HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4; etc	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector KL-D b13-7	33.46	2	2	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1; HIP 32718;	No	-0

Well, this week MR-M is second on the list, so if it's really the case that "trying to Alert MR-M crashes the Thargoid targeting systems" Hadad might be in for a very quiet time of it. Assuming that's not it, no idea if we'll get four or five this time.

I've marked two systems in red which will provide further tests of the "use nearest Control" hypothesis. Unless strategically necessary, please avoid recaptures of Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3, Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1, or Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1, to allow further evidence to be gathered - if we can either get more confidence in this theory or rule it out it could significantly improve prediction accuracy in future weeks!

Aleks Zuno · May 4, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
There's something about Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22 specifically which not only means Hadad won't expand there, but it stops placing Alerts entirely at that point rather than skipping it

At minimum I can try leaving UC-B b14-4 intact to explore that idea, and while it sounds a bit silly, leaving YY-X b15-4 also just in case the specific problem is that the Maelstrom distance matches WD-Y b15-7 at two decimal places (actual difference two thousandths).

Ian Doncaster said:
In science terms, the experiment most likely to get results would be to recapture 8+ control systems (and also more than Hadad gets) at a different Maelstrom.

Would you like an eviction storm at M. Thor, possibly with a few at M. Hadad just to keep it not growing?

Ian Doncaster · May 4, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Would you like an eviction storm at M. Thor, possibly with a few at M. Hadad just to keep it not growing?

If you've got the pilots available to do all that, it sounds like an excellent idea (so long as you spare Thor's LB-O c6 subsector to avoid interfering with that experiment) - thank you.

Ralph Vargr · May 4, 2023

Only Ian could keep up with this. Thank You.

Ian Doncaster · May 5, 2023

Ralph Vargr said:
Only Ian could keep up with this. Thank You.

Thank you - but to be clear, this has very much been a team effort: lots of the crucial theoretical breakthroughs have been made by people like Yttrbio and Disemboweled Ego here, as well as discussions on DCoH's channels. The prediction relies absolutely on the data collection work Yttrbio does at the start of every week, and at a deeper level on the fundamental mapping work carried out by EDSM and others to get system coordinates at all. Some of the details could (and can) only be refined because AX teams like Aleks Zuno's are willing to put in substantial effort to set up the necessary test conditions. I would be nowhere near a solution if it were only me!

Ian Doncaster · May 9, 2023

Updates so far on Maelstrom targeting:

Leigong

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Baudani	24.96	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1	26.25	1	1	HIP 8078;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12	27.42	1	1	Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93;	No	0.9
Ceti Sector ZU-Y b3	36.45	3	3	Ceti Sector ZU-Y b1; Ceti Sector ZU-Y b2; HIP 6679;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.59	2	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.32	3	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.33	3	2.7	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8
HIP 6001	39.69	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-13;	No	-0.5
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2	39.83	4	4	Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; HIP 11309; Arietis Sector FG-Y d49; etc	No	-0.6
HIP 10710	40.03	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d68;	No	-0.2
Hyades Sector CB-O b6-0	40.52	2	1.8	Hyades Sector CB-O b6-1; HIP 11309;	No	-0.8
Arietis Sector SD-T b3-0	40.75	1	0.8	Arietis Sector FG-Y d49;	No	-0.6

Populated Lunguni and Arietis GG-Y d63 systems protected

Oya

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Luggerates	21.96	7	7	Sambaho; HIP 4041; HIP 3006; etc	Yes	0.3
Aowicha	23.77	6	6	Daruwach; Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; Cephei Sector AV-Y b4; etc	Yes	-0.3
Juipedun	24.11	1	1	Bumbo;	Yes	0.9
Khondo Po	24.33	1	1	Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1;	Yes	-0.8
Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3	25.37	1	1	Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5;	No	0.1
HIP 38225	26.96	2	2	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3
Orong	27.13	3	2.5	HR 1107; Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	-0.2
Benanekpeno	27.19	3	1.5	HR 1107; Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	0
Elboongzi	27.39	1	1	Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5;	Yes	-0.9
SPOCS 280	27.39	1	1	Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	No	0.9
Cephei Sector YZ-Y b4	27.57	2	1.8	Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; HIP 4617;	Yes	-0.6
HIP 42982	27.69	1	0.5	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	No	-0.1
Bhotepa	28.23	2	1.7	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	Yes	0.3

Wednesday Edit: recapture moves targeting off Chelka onto an uninhabited system

Thor

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2	35.48	2	2	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3; Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-13	40.19	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-1;	No	-0.3
HIP 18513	40.47	1	0.5	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-19	40.75	1	1	Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5	41.27	3	3	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4; Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5;	No	0.5
HIP 22031	41.34	1	0.7	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3;	No	0.6
HIP 18271	41.46	1	1	Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-48;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2	41.48	1	1	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3	41.50	1	1	HIP 20807;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1	42.12	2	2	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3; HIP 16798;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-5	42.68	1	0.5	Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.74	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-3;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-2	42.77	1	1	Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.89	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-8	43.34	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-2;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-2	43.80	1	0.5	HIP 16798;	No	-0.4
Gliese 2032	44.14	1	1	Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3;	No	0.6
HIP 22159	44.43	2	1.7	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.2

Mangwutja protected, various changes lower down the order. With a total of 10 recaptures this should be a good test if that's what causes Alert reduction - many thanks. HIP 18153 remains a theory test.

Hadad
Reduced attackers to Yan Zangata so far, but no change to the main prediction. Uncertainty over whether we'll have 4 or 5 alerts continues.

Jmanis · May 10, 2023

So... what's this one all about then?

Ned Flandalorian · May 10, 2023

Not quite sure. It does not indicate which controlled systems have AX CZs, because they can be found in systems without that icon.

Ian Doncaster · May 10, 2023

Ned Flandalorian said:
Not quite sure. It does not indicate which controlled systems have AX CZs, because they can be found in systems without that icon.

Does it indicate formerly-inhabited control systems with CZs? I can't see it on any uninhabited systems at all.

Kryxix · May 10, 2023

Jmanis said:
So... what's this one all about then?

View attachment 355397

Target systems for AX Reactivation on-foot missions?

Ian Doncaster · May 10, 2023

Kryxix said:
Target systems for AX Reactivation on-foot missions?

If so, again not exclusively - Chinas doesn't have it but I've seen pictures of it being a target for those.

yttrbio · May 10, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Does it indicate formerly-inhabited control systems with CZs? I can't see it on any uninhabited systems at all.

This seems most likely to me. There is actually a new state (counter-attack or some such) with a slightly different shade of green, that DOES apply to unpopulated systems with AXCZs. But the "success" state is different, which may explain the different iconography and task list.

Jmanis · May 10, 2023

Well... here's a difference...