Hey, funnily enough, I looked and posted about the exact same things when exploration activity was around its peak during DW2, before it had crashed.The great thing about statistics, though, is that you can pick your statistical tool to get the outcome you are after. It's about asking the question that fits the answer you want. Don't let details like reality get in the way of a good story!
But I digress.
If you can pick a different "statistical tool" and show a different outcome, by all means, share it with us! It ought to be interesting, and I don't mean this sarcastically.
Uhh. Did you actually read at the very least the numbers? We're talking about tens of thousands of systems scanned daily, and thousands of players. Do show me any Commander who has ever visited thousands of systems and tens of thousands of bodies every single day.[...] and the 20% could have been scanned by one or a few prolific CMDRs, rendering the use of this statistic even less valid when considering a perceived decline in exploration.
As for the argument from you and others that random samples don't work: that's just your opinion though, and in reality, statistical analysis through random sampling does work. If it didn't, then we wouldn't be posting these on computers.
The whole point is that if you pick a large enough random sample, then you can use it to draw conclusions that would be true for the entire population, within a certain margin of error. This has been very well established - but hey, so has the fact that the Earth isn't flat.
Moving back to the argument here, there is one point where things could be attacked, but I didn't. You're probably not going to like it though. One could argue that random selection isn't at play here, because those who upload to EDSM inherently explore more than those who don't. Probably because they are better invested. The data from DW2 actually supports this: see that 70% of those who actually finished DW2 were on EDSM, while at the start, only 39.5% of participants were.
The reason why I didn't use this was because I find it only natural that people would be more invested in finishing an expedition than they'd regularly be. In other words, that there's no significant difference between explorers who upload to EDSM and explorers who don't. I still might be wrong on this account though.
Looking at the distribution of in-game exploration stats on enough people from the non-EDSM group could actually help decide this. However, we have no way of getting this info, short of having lots of people send in their screenshots voluntarily. Curiously though, whenever they bring up the subject of how much they've explored, the most vocal FSS advocates don't seem to want to share this - not that three or four samples would be anywhere near enough. (I don't mean just the Elite rank itself though, but all the in-game stats. Elite in exploration these days is cheap enough that even on EDSM, it's the second most-common rank, after Aimless.)
One thing that I don't understand:
Sorry, who are you talking about here?Funnily enough, I already mentioned this, but was removed in the reply to me as he obviously had no answers.
Were you referring to how far players might have to go for new systems? Well, in that case, boy will I have some data for you - you're not going to like it though. I still want to double-check it, because even I myself was surprised at how close new systems are found, daily. But if you can't wait, you can check an automatically compiled sheet on EDAstro already.
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