Powerplay Cycle 28 Commentary

[yul7896]

A bold claim supported by strong evidence.

Also, the systems that went into turmoil are all profitable. I find it hard to believe that Hudson would wish to shed 3 systems which are all profitable. If they are scrapping themselves, why not start with the deficit systems?

Haha strong evidence such as?

No one in Winter that I know has undermined any of Hudson's profitable systems. We definitely didn't help Hudson with much of anything last cycle. We were all busy with our expansions. How many people do you think we have?

 

[Etherimp]

Haha strong evidence such as?

No one in Winter that I know has undermined any of Hudson's profitable systems. We definitely didn't help Hudson with much of anything last cycle. We were all busy with our expansions. How many people do you think we have?

You're either blatantly lying, or someone has intentionally kept you in the dark. I'll let you figure out which.

 

[yul7896]

You're either blatantly lying, or someone has intentionally kept you in the dark. I'll let you figure out which.

Haha now this is funny.

You are going to bring your Imperial propaganda from Reddit over to the Frontier Forums now? You aren't doing anything constructive except trying to flame our Community once again.

I am trying to discuss Fergal's Cycle 28 Commentary, it appears you are trying to continue with your nonsense.

Please just stop, dude. This is not the place.

 

[Enef]

Maybe if you would like to explain why Winters undermined between 4-5 of Hudson's profitable systems...

Cheers Etherimp. We were wondering where the foreign legion sent their 5th column personnel in Winters. I mean we saw no 5th column activity in our prep list and were at a loss at what they could have been doing. I'm glad to know however that you're willing to share such vital information with us. I'll make sure to always come to you first when I want to know what the Foreign Legion are doing.


P.S next time try to not undermine your own bad systems to exactly 100%. It looks pretty suspicious when a system is an exact multiple just over the 100% mark. See, you give us information and I return it.

 

[Etherimp]

Cheers Etherimp. We were wondering where the foreign legion sent their 5th column personnel in Winters. I mean we saw no 5th column activity in our prep list and were at a loss at what they could have been doing. I'm glad to know however that you're willing to share such vital information with us. I'll make sure to always come to you first when I want to know what the Foreign Legion are doing.


P.S next time try to not undermine your own bad systems to exactly 100%. It looks pretty suspicious when a system is an exact multiple just over the 100% mark. See, you give us information and I return it.

We're not the source of your 5th Column activities. I am not aware of anyone who is involved in this "foreign legion". Can you name any names?

 

[dciskey]

Cheers Etherimp. We were wondering where the foreign legion sent their 5th column personnel in Winters. I mean we saw no 5th column activity in our prep list and were at a loss at what they could have been doing. I'm glad to know however that you're willing to share such vital information with us. I'll make sure to always come to you first when I want to know what the Foreign Legion are doing.


P.S next time try to not undermine your own bad systems to exactly 100%. It looks pretty suspicious when a system is an exact multiple just over the 100% mark. See, you give us information and I return it.

Wasn't he the one telling us a few weeks ago that it was grinders prepping Bara-whatever every week? Funny how all those grinders suddenly quit and now there's "strong evidence" Winters commanders hit Hudson.

 

[Enef]

We're not the source of your 5th Column activities. I am not aware of anyone who is involved in this "foreign legion". Can you name any names?

You're either blatantly lying, or someone has intentionally kept you in the dark. I'll let you figure out which.

 

[Etherimp]

http://imgur.com/a/4rsgf

8455 / 30 = 281.8333

8540 / 30 = 284.6666

8015 / 30 = 267.1666


8455 / 5 = 1691

8540 / 5 = 1708

8015 / 5 = 1603


There are 2-3 other systems where the same pattern existed.

As you know, there is only way to get undermining divisible by 5 merits, and that's through pirating. Furthermore, by the fact that Hudson has announced that they WANTED to go into turmoil and we know Winters has used Hudson to pirate and oppose her expansions in the past, and that SO many systems were undermined, it only makes sense that Hudson and Winters were working together to put Hudson into turmoil to shed the bad expansions that were winning.

What you didn't account for was our combat pilots doing last minute undermining in Hudson space after we won 44811 and LTT.

I wonder how the general population in your communities would feel about all of their fortification going to waste, and Hudson dropping rank and losing profit making systems because their leadership doesn't know how to target deficit systems. All of ALD's pilots were focusing on opposition and fortification last week. We don't have any "foreign legion", as it never really got off the ground. So any accusation of 5C is you grasping at straws.

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Wasn't he the one telling us a few weeks ago that it was grinders prepping Bara-whatever every week? Funny how all those grinders suddenly quit and now there's "strong evidence" Winters commanders hit Hudson.

If these systems being undermined was the result of 5th Column activities why would it have been done in the middle of the week right after Hudson gave up on HIP 44811, and not LATE in the week when it would have had the most impact?

Also, why would Hudson admit to wanting to lose Partha?

Taken from here: https://www.reddit.com/r/EliteHudson/comments/3x6ylm/week_29_strategy_updated_daily/

We have one expansion that we do not want next week. We would like to try and lose Partha, and possibly the other systems. Partha has a very high fortification trigger and has no large pads in the system, making it incredibly difficult to fortify, and is regularly undermined.

Furthermore, Partha was another one of the systems that was divisible by 5 and not 30. This shows intention, motive, and consistency.


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You're either blatantly lying, or someone has intentionally kept you in the dark. I'll let you figure out which.

I kind of doubt it, considering I am in both the IHC Slack and ALD mod slack. If there was any Foreign legion active I would know about it. Imperius has been gone... as in, busy with IRL stuff. Hence why I took over leadership of Lavingy's Legion. He's the only person that I am aware of who was supposedly a part of this "Foreign legion" ... After it was announced, he went away and hasn't been back since so the foreign legion never got off the ground. Furthermore, Imperius is on my friends list, and he hasn't been online, nor has he been coordinating on any of the slacks. You can confirm this with Sirius if you wish.

 

[Etherimp]

Wasn't he the one telling us a few weeks ago that it was grinders prepping Bara-whatever every week? Funny how all those grinders suddenly quit and now there's "strong evidence" Winters commanders hit Hudson.

I didn't say it was grinders. I said it sounded like 5th Column, and that we (the organized members of ALD, the mod team, or Lavingy's Legion) were NOT responsible for it. I did, however, send Perse a message regarding it and suggested that I may know who *is* responsible. He never got back to me.

 

[Martin Schou]

http://imgur.com/a/4rsgf

8455 / 30 = 281.8333

8540 / 30 = 284.6666

8015 / 30 = 267.1666


8455 / 5 = 1691

8540 / 5 = 1708

8015 / 5 = 1603


There are 2-3 other systems where the same pattern existed.

That's a very interesting way of gauging the amount of pirating going on. It won't give you the exact numbers (obviously), but it will certainly show something - so I (obviously) appropriated the idea. I'm not entirely certain you'll like the results though:


Powers: "Pirate" Systems (Undermining modulus 30 != 0 AND undermining modulus 5 == 0)
Aisling Duval: 4
Archon Delaine: 1
Arissa Lavigny-Duval: 11
Denton Patreus: 8
Edmund Mahon: 0
Felicia Winters: 1
Li Yong-Rui: 1
Pranav Antal: 3
Zachary Hudson: 10
Zemina Torval: 10

As I said, I'm not sure you'll like the results. ALD leads with Hudson and Torval in close shared second.

Edit: I realized that these are only indicative of pirated systems, if their modulus 5 results are 0 AND their modulus 30 results are different from zero, so I ran the numbers with that, and that gave the same result.

 

[Alexander the Grape]

Not true. You can get any number of undermining merits from PvP kills

 

[Martin Schou]

Not true. You can get any number of undermining merits from PvP kills

This is true - it's why the HQ's are sometimes partially fortified. However, I cannot help but find it suspicious that out of 49 systems where the modulus 30 isn't 0, all 49 have a modulus 5 of 0. In other words - either some pirating is going on, or an exact multiple of 5 commanders were killed in each of 49 systems.

And this lead me down another set of questions. Honestly, I'm loving this

Let's look at the fortification merits for each HQ

Powers: HQ Forts
Aisling Duval: 450
Archon Delaine: 0
Arissa Lavigny-Duval: 171
Denton Patreus: 0
Edmund Mahon: 0
Felicia Winters: 0
Li Yong-Rui: 10
Pranav Antal: 0
Zachary Hudson: 0
Zemina Torval: 0

This makes me rather curious - how on Earth did Aisling end up with 450 merits in her HQ? That is a LOT of enemy commanders killed in PvP, and it looks suspiciously like an Anaconda filled with several fasttracked loads, but who knows - maybe there was a LOT of hostile action in Cubeo this cycle? 171 enemy commander kills in Kamadhenu? Sure, I'll buy that. 10 In Lembava? Sounds a bit strange, but okay.

 

[Etherimp]

That's a very interesting way of gauging the amount of pirating going on. It won't give you the exact numbers (obviously), but it will certainly show something - so I (obviously) appropriated the idea. I'm not entirely certain you'll like the results though:


Powers: "Pirate" Systems (Undermining modulus 30 != 0 AND undermining modulus 5 == 0)
Aisling Duval: 4
Archon Delaine: 1
Arissa Lavigny-Duval: 11
Denton Patreus: 8
Edmund Mahon: 0
Felicia Winters: 1
Li Yong-Rui: 1
Pranav Antal: 3
Zachary Hudson: 10
Zemina Torval: 10

As I said, I'm not sure you'll like the results. ALD leads with Hudson and Torval in close shared second.

Edit: I realized that these are only indicative of pirated systems, if their modulus 5 results are 0 AND their modulus 30 results are different from zero, so I ran the numbers with that, and that gave the same result.

It doesn't surprise me or upset me at all, in fact. If anything surprises me it's that the Winters pilots in this thread deny something that we've known they've been doing for quite a while. It also surprises me that Hudson was so sloppy that they undermined their own profitable systems.

 

[persephonius]

I have killed many players at Rhea, as well as other powers headquarters. I have never received a merit for any of these kills?

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This is true - it's why the HQ's are sometimes partially fortified. However, I cannot help but find it suspicious that out of 49 systems where the modulus 30 isn't 0, all 49 have a modulus 5 of 0. In other words - either some pirating is going on, or an exact multiple of 5 commanders were killed in each of 49 systems.

And this lead me down another set of questions. Honestly, I'm loving this

Let's look at the fortification merits for each HQ

Powers: HQ Forts
Aisling Duval: 450
Archon Delaine: 0
Arissa Lavigny-Duval: 171
Denton Patreus: 0
Edmund Mahon: 0
Felicia Winters: 0
Li Yong-Rui: 10
Pranav Antal: 0
Zachary Hudson: 0
Zemina Torval: 0

This makes me rather curious - how on Earth did Aisling end up with 450 merits in her HQ? That is a LOT of enemy commanders killed in PvP, and it looks suspiciously like an Anaconda filled with several fasttracked loads, but who knows - maybe there was a LOT of hostile action in Cubeo this cycle? 171 enemy commander kills in Kamadhenu? Sure, I'll buy that. 10 In Lembava? Sounds a bit strange, but okay.

I have killed many players at Rhea, as well as other powers headquarters. I have never received a merit for any of these kills?

 

[Martin Schou]

I have killed many players at Rhea, as well as other powers headquarters. I have never received a merit for any of these kills?

I'll be honest with you, I've no personal experience with how that particular mechanic is supposed to work - I'm basing it entirely on what I've heard from others, namely that killing an enemy commander in one of your control systems gives you 1 fortification merits, and that killing an enemy commander in another power's control system give you 1 undermining merit.

What I *do* know, however, is that you cannot simply fortify your HQ.

 

[Martin Schou]

It also surprises me that Hudson was so sloppy that they undermined their own profitable systems.

Actually there's a mix of profitable and unprofitable systems in that list. Again, let's break it down for each power:

Powers	"Pirate" Systems	Profitable
Aisling Duval	4	1
Archon Delaine	1	1
Arissa Lavigny-Duval	11	6
Denton Patreus	8	3
Edmund Mahon	0	0
Felicia Winters	1	0
Li Yong-Rui	1	0
Pranav Antal	3	2
Zachary Hudson	10	7
Zemina Torval	10	3

If this is actual pirating (and it seems like a reasonable explanation), then the amount of profitable systems subjected to it would also suggest just how much 5th column activity is going on.

Let's assume for a moment that none of the pirate systems were pirated against the pilot's wishes (in other words, the pilot was in on it), and let's assume that all powers are equally smart. In other words, if one power's pilots are blithering idiots, then all powers' pilots are blithering idiots. In this case I'd say that the only reason to pirate a profitable system is 5th column activity.

Aisling: 25%
Archon: 100%
ALD: 54.5%
Patreus: 37.5%
Mahon: N/A
Winters: 0%
Sirius: 0%
Hudson: 70%
Torval: 30%

Put in order of the powers with the most 5th column activity:

Archon (100%)
Hudson (70%)
ALD (54.5%)
Patreus (37.5%)
Torval (30%)
Aisling (25%)

Now - you *could* argue that this is because Hudson pilots are sloppy, but in that case so are the Archon, ALD, Patreus, Torval and Aisling pilots, and personally I'd lean more towards maliciousness than incompetence.

I haven't done similar comparisons for previous cycles, but I'll be honest - these are some interesting ways of looking at things, so there's a pretty good chance that I will.

 

[Etherimp]

Actually there's a mix of profitable and unprofitable systems in that list. Again, let's break it down for each power:

Powers	"Pirate" Systems	Profitable
Aisling Duval	4	1
Archon Delaine	1	1
Arissa Lavigny-Duval	11	6
Denton Patreus	8	3
Edmund Mahon	0	0
Felicia Winters	1	0
Li Yong-Rui	1	0
Pranav Antal	3	2
Zachary Hudson	10	7
Zemina Torval	10	3

If this is actual pirating (and it seems like a reasonable explanation), then the amount of profitable systems subjected to it would also suggest just how much 5th column activity is going on.

Let's assume for a moment that none of the pirate systems were pirated against the pilot's wishes (in other words, the pilot was in on it), and let's assume that all powers are equally smart. In other words, if one power's pilots are blithering idiots, then all powers' pilots are blithering idiots. In this case I'd say that the only reason to pirate a profitable system is 5th column activity.

Aisling: 25%
Archon: 100%
ALD: 54.5%
Patreus: 37.5%
Mahon: N/A
Winters: 0%
Sirius: 0%
Hudson: 70%
Torval: 30%

Put in order of the powers with the most 5th column activity:

Archon (100%)
Hudson (70%)
ALD (54.5%)
Patreus (37.5%)
Torval (30%)
Aisling (25%)

Now - you *could* argue that this is because Hudson pilots are sloppy, but in that case so are the Archon, ALD, Patreus, Torval and Aisling pilots, and personally I'd lean more towards maliciousness than incompetence.

I haven't done similar comparisons for previous cycles, but I'll be honest - these are some interesting ways of looking at things, so there's a pretty good chance that I will.

Interesting analysis.

 

[fergal]

Very interesting.
As Martin pointed out though, just because the number is divisible by 5 and not 30 doesn't mean it was 100% undermined through piracy, just some piracy was involved.

Patreus had 20 systems undermined last cycle:

Bang (2656193972579)
Beta Caeli (12359)
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Cuchua (3446451177835)
Erio (55310)
Gliese 76 (4609)
Guguroro (5068732179897)
HIP 101846 (75081)
Lausang (8141)
LTT 47 (349)
LTT 8260 (53711)
LTT 9397 (59661)
Paesi (2832564359898)
Parsi (5068463678889)
Picaurukan (11666338948513)
Tuareg (3996240546155)
Turbacobo (3932143129298)
Turir (7505623061218)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)

I wasn't personally, or wasn't in TS with any Delaine players who claim to have partially or fully undermined these 7:
Beta Caeli (12359)
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Erio (55310)
Lausang (8141)
Picaurukan (11666338948513)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)

These two systems were ones we wanted to undermine, but were already completed (presumably by the Federation) before we could start them:
Beta Caeli (12359)
Picaurukan (11666338948513)

That leaves these 5 systems:
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Erio (55310)
Lausang (8141)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)


Here are Patreus systems that were 100% undermined, and divisible by 5 and not 30:
Buricasses (6955800138458)
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Erio (55310)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)

4 are the same, Buricasses was partially undermined by Delaine, Lausang is undermined every week, and is on their Sirius border, and is either Sirius players, or its a faction trying to make it look like its Sirius players.

Bit of a coincidence that 4 out of the 5 "pirated" systems are ones that had 0 directed undermining from Delaine.

 

[persephonius]

Very interesting.
As Martin pointed out though, just because the number is divisible by 5 and not 30 doesn't mean it was 100% undermined through piracy, just some piracy was involved.

Patreus had 20 systems undermined last cycle:

Bang (2656193972579)
Beta Caeli (12359)
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Cuchua (3446451177835)
Erio (55310)
Gliese 76 (4609)
Guguroro (5068732179897)
HIP 101846 (75081)
Lausang (8141)
LTT 47 (349)
LTT 8260 (53711)
LTT 9397 (59661)
Paesi (2832564359898)
Parsi (5068463678889)
Picaurukan (11666338948513)
Tuareg (3996240546155)
Turbacobo (3932143129298)
Turir (7505623061218)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)

I wasn't personally, or wasn't in TS with any Delaine players who claim to have partially or fully undermined these 7:
Beta Caeli (12359)
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Erio (55310)
Lausang (8141)
Picaurukan (11666338948513)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)

These two systems were ones we wanted to undermine, but were already completed (presumably by the Federation) before we could start them:
Beta Caeli (12359)
Picaurukan (11666338948513)

That leaves these 5 systems:
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Erio (55310)
Lausang (8141)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)


Here are Patreus systems that were 100% undermined, and divisible by 5 and not 30:
Buricasses (6955800138458)
Collangbaka (5069537682841)
Erio (55310)
Wangal (6681056449226)
Wong Guin (9467852498337)

4 are the same, Buricasses was partially undermined by Delaine, Lausang is undermined every week, and is on their Sirius border, and is either Sirius players, or its a faction trying to make it look like its Sirius players.

Bit of a coincidence that 4 out of the 5 "pirated" systems are ones that had 0 directed undermining from Delaine.

The archon delaine thing is that there is ALD players jettisoning marked slaves to Li Yong Rui commanders. This has been ongoing for almost the entire length of the Pegassi Pirate war. I cannot remember the group involved, but they made a big deal about it on reddit demonstrating how they were freeing slaves. This is not 5th column activity, and so the analysis above is not particularly valid.

 

[fergal]

The archon delaine thing is that there is ALD players jettisoning marked slaves to Li Yong Rui commanders. This has been ongoing for almost the entire length of the Pegassi Pirate war. I cannot remember the group involved, but they made a big deal about it on reddit demonstrating how they were freeing slaves. This is not 5th column activity, and so the analysis above is not particularly valid.

the systems above are Patreus systems, not Delaines systems.

Shows how much undermining Winters did to Patreus last cycle