The biggest worry for me was an assumption that smuggling is carried out in small ships and is consequently of low value, so it needs to be heavily buffed in comparison to exploration which is relatively high-value. Tell that to the 260 bot cutters a day that we experience that don't need to smuggle since they magically hack their way in without even needing to supercuise.
Seeing the habits data that was presented, and the tail of ultra high-value transaction accounts, I'd be very pleased to hear about a forensic investigation of the log files of any account at the top end of the curve. If its a phenomenally focussed human great, if not start shadow banning them. Even if you can't, don't relax the diminishing returns effect to make them MORE disrupting.
Not sure about that botting.
However, I think it might be the case that there are more ways to positivly boost a faction (Explo Data, Trading, Mission) then there are ways to harm it.
To harm a faction you have combat (hitting system-security), some (usually more awkward then data-delivery) missions and ... smuggling.
Maybe this is another reason why smuggling has received a boost compared to handing in explo data: to balance positive and negative impact-actions on a faction.
Of course it's strange to believe that smuggling is done in littel ships, since it's so easy to do. Even if you are scanned with a big load, that fines are neglectable. There really is absolutly no danger in smuggling. So everyone doing it, and who knows how to use a heatsink, will go for max-cargo ships. The only tricky part about smuggling is to find the best black-markets and the best sources of illegal-goods. And if you only smuggle for the purpose to lower influcence of a faction event that ain't a worry.