Expansions: BGS Guide Best Current Thinking

[Nepeta Uchiha]

Expansion is about 10 days (+/-1) from Pending to Completion. Once it is Pending, you cant stop it. The destination is determined on Completion, so in certain circumstances you have some control.

Retreat is 5 days (?ish) - Determined on the last day being above or below 2.5%

To be exact, yes BGS doesn't care about exact sometimes lol, Expansion happens once 75% or higher influence is hit. It pends for 5 days (1st day doesn't visually show) then Expansion state itself lasts 3 to 7 days. Every day the faction gains influence during expansion knocks 1 day off the 7 day max. The quickest my PMF did an expansion is 4 days.

Now Retreat pends for 1 day once a faction goes below 2.5% influence. Retreat lasts a minimum of 5 days but if the faction goes above 2.5% during those 5 days it can add up to 2 days (that I observe) to the Retreat. Of course if the faction is below 2.5% upon Retreat ending they get kicked from the system.

Also both Expansions and Retreats can be forcefully ended by a Conflict state.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Every day the faction gains influence during expansion knocks 1 day off the 7 day max.

Counter-example: SECD gain influence on three days of this expansion cycle but it still takes the maximum 7 days

Morpheus (Eol Prou PX-T d3-122) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

Counter-example: Colonia Cooperative are on a static 99.9% influence throughout the expansion cycle and it lasts 5 days.

Ratraii (Eol Prou LW-L c8-76) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

...or 7 days

Ratraii (Eol Prou LW-L c8-76) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

Counter-example: INO Research lose influence all but one day of their expansion cycle, but still complete it in 5 days

Santos Dumont (Eol Prou IW-W e1-2469) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

(I have no idea what, if anything, does influence the lengths of expansions. I've never seen a theory beyond "it's random" that hasn't had plentiful counter-examples.)

Now Retreat pends for 1 day once a faction goes below 2.5% influence. Retreat lasts a minimum of 5 days but if the faction goes above 2.5% during those 5 days it can add up to 2 days (that I observe) to the Retreat. Of course if the faction is below 2.5% upon Retreat ending they get kicked from the system.

The timings on this have changed. Retreat now lasts exactly six days active, and only the influence at the start of the sixth day is relevant - above 2.5% is safe, below 2.5% leaves at the end of the sixth day.

Also both Expansions and Retreats can be forcefully ended by a Conflict state.

This is no longer entirely the case - expansions are now unaffected by conflicts [1]. Retreats are slightly more complicated:
- you can't get into an asset conflict while in Retreat state, the influences just cross rather than locking
- you can get into an invasion conflict while in Retreat state (and indeed will be a good target for one), and this does still immediately cancel the Retreat

[1] You still pay the 15% expansion tax while locked in conflict, which can get messy, and looks quite surprising if you aren't expecting it.

Union (Eol Prou PX-T d3-336) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

I like this war as an example, because it has influence within the lock being affected by:
- a public holiday for one of the participants
- expansion tax for one of the participants
- negative influence states for two other factions in the system
- an inbound expansion during the war
so you can see how all of these affect the "locked" influences

 

[Nepeta Uchiha]

Counter-example: SECD gain influence on three days of this expansion cycle but it still takes the maximum 7 days

Morpheus (Eol Prou PX-T d3-122) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

Counter-example: Colonia Cooperative are on a static 99.9% influence throughout the expansion cycle and it lasts 5 days.

Ratraii (Eol Prou LW-L c8-76) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

...or 7 days

Ratraii (Eol Prou LW-L c8-76) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

Counter-example: INO Research lose influence all but one day of their expansion cycle, but still complete it in 5 days

Santos Dumont (Eol Prou IW-W e1-2469) - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

(I have no idea what, if anything, does influence the lengths of expansions. I've never seen a theory beyond "it's random" that hasn't had plentiful counter-examples.)

My PMF had 4 expansions this year.

1st Expansion we lost influence every day but one where we gained. 6 day expansion.
2nd Expansion same story.
3rd Expansion we gained influence the first 3 days and had the expansion end on the 4th day.
4th Expansion was right on Odyssey launch so it got wonky but ended in 6 days like the first two.

For our experience gaining influence in anyway lessens the expansion and we used a Discord bot that pulls data from the API like Inara but we could set it to how many ever decimal places we wanted. (FYI Elite uses a **** ton behind the scenes) So we had days that we lost 0.001% influence and gained 0.001% influence during expansions so the day limit isn't random at all unless you're looking at the in game %'s where it can seem to look random.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

So we had days that we lost 0.001% influence and gained 0.001% influence during expansions so the day limit isn't random at all unless you're looking at the in game %'s where it can seem to look random.

That's true, but the counter-examples I posted there mostly have influence gains and moves which are much greater than 0.1% so it doesn't matter that the extra decimal places aren't shown. I'll add a couple more in which all have influence movements much greater than thousandths of a percent involved.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/41/history?minrange=3307-10-04&maxrange=3307-10-16 has three gains detectable even at the 0.1% level of significance, and it still takes seven days.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/20/history?minrange=3307-08-15&maxrange=3307-08-23 has four gains detectable even at the 0.1% level of significance, and it still takes six days.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/25/history?minrange=3307-10-08&maxrange=3307-10-14 has three gains detectable even at the 0.1% level of significance in the first three days, just like your example ... so it should only take four days, right? Actually it takes five.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/15/history?minrange=3307-01-21&maxrange=3307-01-30 gains influence - by four or five percent a day, not small gains! - for the first five days of the expansion, and it still goes to the full seven days length

 

[Nepeta Uchiha]

That's true, but the counter-examples I posted there mostly have influence gains and moves which are much greater than 0.1% so it doesn't matter that the extra decimal places aren't shown. I'll add a couple more in which all have influence movements much greater than thousandths of a percent involved.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/41/history?minrange=3307-10-04&maxrange=3307-10-16 has three gains detectable even at the 0.1% level of significance, and it still takes seven days.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/20/history?minrange=3307-08-15&maxrange=3307-08-23 has four gains detectable even at the 0.1% level of significance, and it still takes six days.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/25/history?minrange=3307-10-08&maxrange=3307-10-14 has three gains detectable even at the 0.1% level of significance in the first three days, just like your example ... so it should only take four days, right? Actually it takes five.

https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/15/history?minrange=3307-01-21&maxrange=3307-01-30 gains influence - by four or five percent a day, not small gains! - for the first five days of the expansion, and it still goes to the full seven days length

All of your examples are Colonia region systems. I can assure you Expansions don't behave that way in the bubble since most systems in the core are 7 faction systems so obviously with Colonia systems not having max faction counts expansions go hay wire.

I'm my faction's BGS head so when we're planning to expand I'm on every system in the area studying the patterns.

 

[Mersozz]

Expansion is about 10 days (+/-1) from Pending to Completion. Once it is Pending, you cant stop it. The destination is determined on Completion, so in certain circumstances you have some control.

Retreat is 5 days (?ish) - Determined on the last day being above or below 2.5%

Your estimate appears to be accurate. Our faction recently successfully orchestrated a retreat/expansion maneuver in a targeted system and the timeline followed what you noted above.

Retreat was initiated prior to our expansion being triggered. And then, several days before the targeted faction retreated, our prepared system went into expansion. So there was a three day period in which the targeted system was retreating while our expansion was “ongoing.” About 48 hours after the targeted faction was expelled from the system, our faction expanded into it, as we hoped and expected.

I should mention the faction we retreated was not in any conflict state at the time.

 

[DragoCubX]

Is there a way to reliably check whether a system is in range of a long-range expansion from another one? iirc it was supposed to have double range, but since it would still be a cube, I have no idea how to determine the limits...
Just trying to find out whether a specific system is reachable

 

[Gennar]

Is there a way to reliably check whether a system is in range of a long-range expansion from another one? iirc it was supposed to have double range, but since it would still be a cube, I have no idea how to determine the limits...
Just trying to find out whether a specific system is reachable

Yes. Sites like iddb have X/Y/Z coordinates so you can check if all 3 are within the limits (less than 30 LY each).

 

[DragoCubX]

Yes. Sites like iddb have X/Y/Z coordinates so you can check if all 3 are within the limits (less than 30 LY each).

Less than 30? Oof, well, looks like they're barely out of reach then. Sad times.

 

[goemon]

is the expansion cycle (pending+10, +/-1 day) consistent cross-galaxy?
are there exampels of factions getting pending expansion the same day, but expanding on different days? (one after 10 days, one after 11 days for exampel)?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

is the expansion cycle (pending+10, +/-1 day) consistent cross-galaxy?
are there exampels of factions getting pending expansion the same day, but expanding on different days? (one after 10 days, one after 11 days for exampel)?

Yes.

Eol Prou PC-K c9-91 - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

Kumo Council and ICU start expansion (neither from this system, of course, just a convenient way to watch both at once) on the same day, so must have gone Pending on the same day. They end expansions on different days.

 

[goemon]

Yes.

Eol Prou PC-K c9-91 - History

cdb.sotl.org.uk

Kumo Council and ICU start expansion (neither from this system, of course, just a convenient way to watch both at once) on the same day, so must have gone Pending on the same day. They end expansions on different days.

thank you!

 

[Nepeta Uchiha]

Expansion is 5 days pending once 75% or more is achieved (1st day 75% is achieved doesn't show as pending fyi). Since Odyssey it seems the active state does whatever it wants now so best bet is assume it'll be 6 days active but could end sooner.

Before Odyssey my faction could reliably control Expansion active duration by gaining influence during Expansion. So each day we went up in % was one day taken off Expansion. Quickest active state we had was 4 days and we expanded.

 

[goemon]

a minor report.
<7 factions with extended range takes precedence over possible invasion in standard range.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

A regular invasion or previously-retreated-from-the-system invasion?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

a minor report.
<7 factions with extended range takes precedence over possible invasion in standard range.

Makes sense and consistent with other extended/standard options when extended range is available.

 

[goemon]

A regular invasion or previously-retreated-from-the-system invasion?

regular.

 

[ConstanceFlux]

Collected Wisdom of the BGS community on the Expansion state

• When: triggers when a faction reaches >75% . The faction does not have to be in control of the system it expands from.
• How long: Usually 5 days as pending 5 days active and 3 days in cooldown, though 3-6 days active have been reported.
• Expansion tax: Expanding factions carry a c.3tax in the expansion centre, regardless of population size, for each active day of the expansion. This can be counteracted with positive transactions and it is possible, but not proven, that exploration data counts double. This is missing in 3.3, possibly an oversight.
• Where to: The following sequence is followed-
  • Normal Expansion - systems which have less than seven factions present, no previous retreats. Closest system within priority is chosen.
  • Second chance expansion - systems which have less than seven factions present, previously retreated. Closest system within priority is chosen.
  • Invasion - systems that have exactly seven factions present, including a non-native target faction not currently in conflict. The system with the lowest influence target faction at the moment the expansion complete is chosen (the effect of previous retreats is uncertain).
  • Long-range Expansion The expansion completes but there is no relocation. The next expansion has extended range. If this expansion already had extended range and still couldn't find a valid target, then this system will not generate any expansions at all for a while.
• Where from: In a situation where more than one of a factions systems is over the expansion threshold, there appears to be something that makes some expansion centres preferred over others. It is not yet obvious what this is (e.g. not time over 75%, % itself or alphabetical order.) The best explanation available is that the tick runs through the galaxy system by system, in a defined order.
• Controlling expansions: It is possible, with planning, to direct expansion through control of where the expansion comes from and either blocking unattractive systems by expanding a 7th faction in or retreating non-native factions out of attractive systems.

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As ever if there is anything to add/remove/improve - please shout!

can this header page be updated to reflect the true time 3-7 days of active phase and that it can be shortened by the expanding system gaining Inf (as evidenced on most recent posts)

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

I don't believe that's an accurate statement.

 

[Nepeta Uchiha]

It's not. Expansions last 6 days active max with the 7th day being the day you expand. Also since Odyssey gaining influence to shorten an expansion hasn't worked.