I was right, you were wrong

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Sorry but no. If your idea of Roadmap is (on November 24th at 10:34am we will drop spacelegs) you might be right. But the world of software development, hard as it is, is not a completely haphazard process. There are set dates, and more often than not (although delays happen, sure) they are respected.

It doesn't work like this. If you know what you're doing, and take the time you need, and consider contingencies and possible problems you can give a launch window for a new feature that you are reasonably confident you can meet. Or a list of such launch windows. Which is nothing but a roadmap.
I bolded the part where your logic breaks apart. You demanded 'guarantees' in your earlier post. And they 'better deliver' on it, presumable 'or else...'. But to be able to guarantee anything you need to be certain. Now you concede that they can, at best, be 'reasonably confident'. But that is very much not the same. Lets give a simple example. Let us suppose they give us a roadmap until end of 2020, with twenty things on it. They are 'reasonably confident' (lets say 90% sure) about each item on the roadmap. That means the odds of them delivering the entire package is .9^20=.12, or 12%. In other words, the odds of you being upset and frustrated even when they are 90% sure about each individual item will be 88%. So if they are reasonably confident about those things, they would at the same time be reasonably confident they won't be able to deliver all of it! But with each individual item being at 90%, they would also be reasonably confident that they would be unable to point out which one will be undelivered. :)

To actually be 'reasonably confident' about the entire package they would need to be x^20=.9 confident about each individual part. That resolves to a required certainty of 99,5% about every single thing on the roadmap. Unfortately that level of confidence simply doesn't exist in reality. So either you demand guarantees, or you expect 'reasonable confidence'. But you cant have both, how tempting it may intuitively sound
 
I bolded the part where your logic breaks apart. You demanded 'guarantees' in your earlier post. And they 'better deliver' on it, presumable 'or else...'. But to be able to guarantee anything you need to be certain. Now you concede that they can, at best, be 'reasonably confident'. But that is very much not the same. Lets give a simple example. Let us suppose they give us a roadmap until end of 2020, with twenty things on it. They are 'reasonably confident' (lets say 90% sure) about each item on the roadmap. That means the odds of them delivering the entire package is .9^20=.12, or 12%. In other words, the odds of you being upset and frustrated even when they are 90% sure about each individual item will be 88%. So if they are reasonably confident about those things, they would at the same time be reasonably confident they won't be able to deliver all of it! But with each individual item being at 90%, they would also be reasonably confident that they would be unable to point out which one will be undelivered. :)

To actually be 'reasonably confident' about the entire package they would need to be x^20=.9 confident about each individual part. That resolves to a required certainty of 99,5% about every single thing on the roadmap. Unfortately that level of confidence simply doesn't exist in reality. So either you demand guarantees, or you expect 'reasonable confidence'. But you cant have both, how tempting it may intuitively sound
Well,we have neither now. We have radio silence and only the occasional "hey don't worry it will come eventually" intervention when people moan too loud.

Sorry but i don't call this responsible management of the community.
 
This game has had a lot of over-hype under-delivered content since release and has had little structure to the update path since 2.0
 
X:R, X4, NMS, SC, ED: not a single game in this genre managed to stick to its roadmap. Something tells me you wont outperform them either. As a rule of thumb, when you consider every single professional to be incompetent and you cant do it better yourself, maybe your expectations are off. :)
Horizons were released pretty accurately, one year after base game. Then things went to maintenance mode wrong way.
As to X and NMS - why to compare indie-studies with a dozen of developers, to Frontier with 100+ staff working on ED (at least, according to multiple statements of PR guys)?
Let's compare ED to Eve Online - where dozens of big expansions were announced 6-12 months before release date, and were released in time.
 
Well it was either a clear roadmap that they failed to stick to
That is what people are trying to explain to you: clear roadmaps are no guarantee. You demand guarantees. You won't get it. I am not sure how much simple we can make it for you. Not only has it been explained why what you want ain't gonna happen in practice, you are also given concrete factual examples that happened just a few months ago.

You want a roadmap to offers guarantees. You are not going to get it. It doesn't matter how badly you want it, or how much you feel you are entitled to it. Reality is unlikely to budge. :)
 
Horizons were released pretty accurately, one year after base game. Then things went to maintenance mode wrong way.
As to X and NMS - why to compare indie-studies with a dozen of developers, to Frontier with 100+ staff working on ED (at least, according to multiple statements of PR guys)?
Let's compare ED to Eve Online - where dozens of big expansions were announced 6-12 months before release date, and were released in time.
I am comparing it to pretty much all 3D open-world space games, some having more and others having less devs, because that is what ED is. I am not comparing it to a 2D strategy/excel simulator, because ED is not. I am not sure why that is puzzling.
 
I am comparing it to pretty much all 3D open-world space games, some having more and others having less devs, because that is what ED is. I am not comparing it to a 2D strategy/excel simulator, because ED is not. I am not sure why that is puzzling.
So you suppose that 3D and interactivity makes things more complex, than lots of balance/math? (Eve Online is 3D)
Ok, let's compare ED then to GTA5 or RDR2, which are by the order of magnitude more detailed, interactive and complex in terms of 3D modelling/animation/NPC behavior, than ships models floating in the emptiness. And again it appears that well-organized development allows to live without continuous mess of failed deadlines and tons of bugs on release.
 
So you suppose that 3D and interactivity makes things more complex, than lots of balance/math? (Eve Online is 3D)
Ok, let's compare ED then to GTA5 or RDR2, which are by the order of magnitude more detailed, interactive and complex in terms of 3D modelling/animation/NPC behavior, than ships models floating in the emptiness. And again it appears that well-organized development allows to live without continuous mess of failed deadlines and tons of bugs on release.
I am not sure which part of '3D open world space games' confuses you, but if you'll point at the specific word you are struggling with I'll try to clarify... :p

As to why these games struggle with roadmaps isn't something I care about. I am just pointing out an objective fact about reality. What you do with that is entirely your call, but I'd personally recommend not getting too upset about it. It's almost weekend!
 

Robert Maynard

Volunteer Moderator
Let's compare ED to Eve Online - where dozens of big expansions were announced 6-12 months before release date, and were released in time.
Is it reasonable to compare E: D with EVE Online?

EVE has subscriptions that fund dedicated servers and development.

Interestingly, EVE seems to be being developed for mobile devices now....
 
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