I put together a chart mostly using Monte Fisto's numbers.
View attachment 10719
It's a bit confusing, but the influence switch on the 20th was the same day we started the blockade, but occurred BEFORE we started blockading (as far as I know). So the blockade didn't have an effect on influence at that point.
While we've kept up the blockade at Law Party's Gabriel Station, Law Party has lost influence, and the other factions have gained it. I'm curious to see if Law can continue not being in Civil War when their influence drops below the other minor factions. That can't be the only factor, as we've been close when they were at 23.4%.
The closest we ever got to Civil War was when the queue fix went in, and Law Party and Dukes were at Civil War Critical. It's hard to say what caused that since 3 weeks worth of missions and occasionally attacking system authority at checkpoints and traders went through at once.
At that point, Dukes were simultaneously Civil War Critical, Expansion Critical and Boom pending states. Law on the other hand was only Civil War Critical in pending (no Civil Unrest anywhere). I'm not sure if its relevant, but we did have Lock Down prior to the queue fix, which was when we were hitting the checkpoints (Jan 8). Does Lock Down have to precede Civil War?
Since Boom and Expansion doesn't seem to go hand in hand with a population ready for Civil War, I'd guess just one faction needs to be driven to Civil War, and a 2nd increasing faction automatically becomes their opponent. If true, we don't need to foment Civil Unrest with the Dukes faction. Big if. Has anyone seen evidence in the other threads either way?
I hope the Devs (Michael Brookes?) might let us know if we're even on the right track with this blockade to get Civil War.