What I noticed recently in a different system was one faction rising in influence past another faction that had a relatively static influence. Once one got larger than the other, there was a "Civil War Critical" pending state on both, but then there was a delay of a couple of days before the war started - by which point the gap between the factions had grown. Oddly enough since the war started the gap between the two has stayed fairly constant. A third faction meanwhile is coming up on the rails on both, but presumably three factions can't be in war with each other.
I'm also curious as to how the result of the war is decided. Is it which side has higher influence at the end, or is it which side has gained more influence during it? Can it end as an inconclusive draw?
The mechanics of the victory conditions for civil wars remain a complete mystery.
Once a civil war begins influence seems to change differently, e.g. trading, missions, cashing in combat bonds don't have the expected result, maybe influence is locked within a specific influence range of a few percent, although that doesn't explain other irregularities in changes, like aiding a faction and the result is they lose influence, anywho I digress
Without knowing which station/outpost the civil war is for we don't know which faction actually wins.
e.g. Faction A and Faction B are at war, both own a single station
Situation 1:
The war is for Faction A's station
Faction A wins - no change in control
Situation 2:
War is for Faction B's station
Faction A wins - Faction A now controls 2 stations.
Each time the player base supports Faction A. Without knowing what station the battle is for we can only guess if any of our actions have an effect on the civil war outcome. The players in situation 1 might assume that their efforts were for nothing as they thought they might gain a station, but in fact the war was to maintain control of their station.
The players in situation 2 are happy with the results of their effort, as expected they supported faction A and helped it win the war (another complete unknown - no ingame feedback relating to player effort in civil wars, do any actions actually aid anyone...)