Anticipation for Odyssey aka "space legs" was great.
This is the exact point I was making about the difference between the "will buy anything" loyal community, and the much larger number of "people who play Elite Dangerous a bit" - and it's that much larger group who put in most of the game's ongoing revenue.
The "will buy anything" community did indeed get really hyped up on the original announcement. Most PC players active enough to post on the forum will own it, and probably make some use of it, and likely enjoy it too. The lesson here is that the "loyal community" isn't large enough, on its own, to make a major expansion a financial success.
We got a big player spike when it launched. But, of course, it launched in a broken state, word got out quickly and sales suffered. Players quit in disgust. The lesson to be learned from that is to not release broken expansions. I don't blame space legs. I blame the corporation for being too desperate to bring in revenue before an arbitrary fiscal year deadline. Big mistake.
Certainly it released before it was ready.
The question then is: how long should they have held it back for?
- it was already running about six months behind the
original plan when it did release (it was
supposed to be a Christmas 2020 release)
- the most severe performance and functional bugs weren't fixed until the end of 2021
- the less severe performance issues were never fixed and some were probably unfixable, so it would never have released on consoles regardless
- even after those issues were fixed, it struggled to get much more than a "maybe" when people asked "should I buy it?"
It took them three years to get it to its release state. That cost a substantial amount of money (they've never said exactly how much, but combining information from various financial releases suggests around £15 million). So if they'd spent another year after that getting it right, it would have cost about £20 million.
Would another year of work on Odyssey (so it released on PC in roughly the state it did after Update 12) have tripled its sales so it could then break even? (Remember, even in this hypothetical, David Braben still has to personally apologise to the console players)
Would the hype around it have continued despite another year with no release, the general boost to computer games from the pandemic unwinding as people were able to leave the house again, and it then having been two years since the last significant ED expansion?
The "big mistake" was unfortunately made back in about 2018, when they decided that "space legs plus tenuous atmospheres" was a reasonable scope for an expansion that they could develop in ~2.5 years and sell at full price to the majority of semi-active players. They were wrong then on timescale, on price point, on market size, on ability to sell to consoles at all. After that - with the benefit of hindsight - all they could do is choose exactly which mode of disaster they wanted it to be.
(Did they pick the optimal one? Probably not. Did it really matter by early 2021 exactly which they picked? Probably not.)
The community is clearly not interested in on-foot content? How do you determine that? Where is Frontier posting data about what players are doing in game?
You can derive a fair bit from things like squadron and powerplay leaderboards, station traffic reports, third-party tool use, and so on. There's a
lot of information directly or indirectly shown in-game about player activity levels. It's pretty easy to tell from those that "spaceship content" gets much bigger and more sustained spikes in player activity than "foot content" does.
But I think the main evidence is more about what Frontier has done recently to make Odyssey a more attractive purchase to the people who didn't already have it:
- cut the base price to £10 from £30
- made it the way to get four new
spaceships
- introduced one
novel piece of on-foot content in the last two years (Thargoid Spires)
- had exactly one CG which required Odyssey (they used to have Horizons-exclusive CGs quite regularly, with the first one just a couple of weeks after it released)
Is that the sort of thing that Frontier would do if - post-fixes - Odyssey was selling well as an expansion and their internal metrics showed lots of players were spending lots of time on-foot?
I quite like a lot of the on-foot content; I think it fits nicely into the Powerplay rewrite, exobio is a good addition to exploration to bring a lot of formerly boring ice balls and rocky moons to being more interesting, the ground CZs make a nice "quick action" break from the more thinky bits of the game, the NPC responses to player actions are a bit more coherent, it isn't embarrassed to have implemented illegal actions. I still don't spend that much time doing any of it, compared with the spaceship-flying content.