Game Discussions Star Citizen Discussion Thread v12

Mole HD

Mole HD
VR Golgot said:
Day 3 and IAE is ~1mil (~18%) down on last year so far apparently...

https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/1gzoitv/iae_2954_daily_funding_tracker_day_3_misc_mirai
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/1gzoitv/iae_2954_daily_funding_tracker_day_3_misc_mirai/


They best hope the Polaris pops...
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I still believe that most folk who would realistically be in the market to buy one already have it...8 years a jpeg. It may attract some similarly priced melts or CCU's (Carrack perhaps) for those who otherwise wouldn't splurge that much... but I don't think it's in the "Ohh, let's buy one!" category.

I'd best describe the Polaris as way too expensive for the casual peasant or 'accidental concierge' types to buy on a whim, but it's certainly a realistic choice for bored Carrack owners 🤷‍♂️

As an aside, the Polaris isn't available in the IAE sale so far, waiting for RSI day I suppose :)

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Factabulous

Factabulous
IAE is organised around ship manufacturers, so naturally spreads out over some time. I had a quick look at the list of ships you can rent and it just felt overwhelming to even try to look at many of them (assuming the servers were good, which they usually aren't).

Polaris should start tomorrow, will be interesting to see if Mole is right, or if the fact it is flyable gets new whales paying.
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Viajero
Agony_Aunt said:
Yes, we know, but there is always the counterpoint of if CIG were massaging the figures too much, then they would already be out of business.
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And the counter counter point is that it is not a binary issue, i.e. either in business or not. Things can gradually deteriorate. I think the tale tell signs of low(er) funds available than really represented are available all over the place, extremely crappy quality updates, more and more monetization squeezes, layoffs etc.
 

Agony_Aunt

Agony_Aunt
Viajero said:
And the counter counter point is that it is not a binary issue, i.e. either in business or not. Things can gradually deteriorate. I think the tale tell signs of low(er) funds available than really represented are available all over the place, extremely crappy quality updates, more and more monetization squeezes, layoffs etc.
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No, i mean if they were massaging too much they would already have gone out of business years ago.

If they were doing some minor massaging or perhaps in the last year or so massively massaging, then what you describe might explain some of the things we have seen WRT staffing and updates.
 

Shekelstein

S
its funny but i called the serious funding problem almost 2-4 months ago now on this very thread and everybody laughed at me becasue "The Whales" were going to Rescue it at IAE. Worst part is that this is only going to get worse as they keep falling further and further behind becasue of layoffs and Squadron 42.

I wonder how long its going to take for them to realize that Squadron 42 is litiraly sinking the company
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Viajero
Agony_Aunt said:
No, i mean if they were massaging too much they would already have gone out of business years ago.

If they were doing some minor massaging or perhaps in the last year or so massively massaging, then what you describe might explain some of the things we have seen WRT staffing and updates.
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I do not know man, if finances had been constantly as hunky dory as stated in the tracker, CIG would have really never needed to call for external investment back in 2017-18. That is already 6-7 years ago, at the very least.
 
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Mole HD

Mole HD
Shekelstein said:
its funny but i called the serious funding problem almost 2-4 months ago now on this very thread and everybody laughed at me becasue "The Whales" were going to Rescue it at IAE. Worst part is that this is only going to get worse as they keep falling further and further behind becasue of layoffs and Squadron 42.
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I can't recall anyone laughing... especially since most of us who've had occasion to pay attention to Ci~G's marketing and bullsh*t waffling habits over the last decade have been saying exactly the same thing since the beginning of the year 🤷‍♂️
 

Phlegm

P
Viajero said:
We keep referring to the funding tracker as if it was a proven trustworthy figure. Reminder this is a non audited self published CIG piece of "info". I would be extremely surprised if CIG ever let it show too bad of a figure.
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Not to mention it showing some VERY suspect patterns and sudden surges as if to keep an average level shown in order to give the impression of steadier support than might actually exist.
 

VR Golgot

VR Golgot
A goon went forensic on the tracker many years back...

About that. Around the same time that the Skadden case dropped, I ran the Benford numbers on the funding tracker. Benford numbers are the phenomenon of any series of natural numbers beginning with a particular digit occur within a very specific probability, so they use it to find out if number sequences are bullcrap or not.

Obviously I'm just a dweebie that gets paid to push bits around, but this has been bugging me for a while.

0oISCcq.png


Blue bars are the funding tracker. Red is the Fibonacci sequence for calibration. Theory being that any large stack of numbers will have a number beginning with '1', 30% of the time.

I don't think the funding tracker is kosher, personally. It raises some interesting questions around using data to justify ahem donations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

B1qP2f6oQz4YBg7KJiJonJZ0TD5QuWz6tuufTxxucpE.jpg
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It definitely isn't legit. It's a marketing tool used to induce confidence, as you guys are saying. No doubts.

But there's enough reality to CIG's outlays, as AA says, that we do know they pull in serious pasta. So it's likely a question of CIG fuzzing the data, rather than generating it wholesale. (It could just be loophole trickery: not retracting refunds from the pool. Or grey zone massaging via undeclared sources: like pumping in sub cash when desired. Or just flat out spinning the wheels when they feel the need, or whatever.)

All told there's probably still some value in watching its trends and oddities though. Not least because its downward shifts often do sync with the community sentiment dips. Especially ones where whales are riding the froth, like now ;)

https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/1gzr37h/cig_are_slowly_removing_5_ccus
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/1gzr37h/cig_are_slowly_removing_5_ccus/
 

VR Golgot

VR Golgot
Oh yeah they're definitely turning every little screw they can this year. And the whale squeaks are testament to that ;)

(But they're still little screws and little squeaks ultimately. At least within CIG's scales of lunacy ;). Cashflow issues maintaining CR's vainglorious empire, rather than collapse.)

The longer it goes on though, the closer we get to that Bengal glass being broken 🚨

(And I'm sure we'll all enjoy Calders Quarter one way or the other ;))
 

cigwatch

cigwatch

metatheurgist

metatheurgist
cigwatch said:
I am really surprised no predatory law company has picked it up yet. SC looks more and more like a nice class action suit in the making.

It would be an entertaining PvP (Predator vs Predator) match to observe.
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I've seen that movie. I think the tagline was "This Christmas, No One Wins".

VR Golgot said:
Interesting to see a lot of these uber-fan types hit a minor wall with CIG. Jorun previously etc.

They'll step over it, and clamber merrily back into their 890 Jump (Mk 2), of course.

But along their stately SC journey, the clank of crew malfeasance will forever be in their ears ;)

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New SC event - The Running of the Whales.
 
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