Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Exactly this is also a problem, though—many Commanders want an independent way for everyone for choose a target, and in the absence of having that directly I am giving updates which list which systems Commanders have targeted. This is along with what to do there, of course!

That said, I am interested in hearing about upcoming targets from any and all large groups or squadrons, so that independent Commanders at least have an idea of where to go immediately after the Thursday progress wipes. In that absence of that, the best we have at the moment—and actually, a good system in general—is to use the top few systems which were incomplete on the previous cycle.

The effort put into those systems is lost as far as Elite is concerned, but I am thinking that it would be nice to treat each point of progress as a vote for that system. In effect, it is backed by the actual efforts of Commanders, and enough others with a mind to reward that may consider operating there next cycle. There are a few problem-cases with that though, such as not knowing in advance where Alerts will appear, and Invasion systems in their final week where only combat will be possible next cycle. Speaking of which, given how the war states work, increasingly we will need Commanders to take up combat simply due to the growing number of Controlled systems.

Alternatively, I know exactly how I would design a system for letting everyone decide their preferences and ranking the results, although it occurs to me that some may not be happy with everyone being able to affect that list because it would include those with no interest in making any progress oneself.

In any case, for the moment I will do my best to report where actual effort is occurring at the top of the thread. This will follow the actions of large groups naturally as their progress is reported, while being independent of anyone's opinion about where to strike next.
Yeah I get tunnel vision in threads and didnt read it all I have now though and will pop in here for a look everyday before checking axi and inara. Ty for doing this CMDR Aleks the better we can corrodinate and concentrate efforts the more effective we will be and that's all I'm worried about. o7
 
It is! I was updating the main list just now, and Imeut was at 60%. The only non-abandoned port is Levi-Strauss Hub, an outpost with significant damage, which you can help if you have a medium pad cargo starship for transporting critically wounded escape pods away. With no active ports, there appear to be no conflict zones (at ports or otherwise), so all you can do is drop somewhere and await a Frame Shift Anomaly. They will come!

Top of the list looks like this (at 00:50 19th December 3308):
Imeut Invasion – 60%
Lahua Invasion – 52%
Muruidooges Invasion – 26%
Obamumbo Invasion – 22%
HIP 20527 Alert – 18%
29 e Orionis Invasion – 16%

I am mentioning 29 e Orionis here because it took a sharp surge from 8% to 16%, which is a bold move given knowledge of the list and how the Thursday reset works.
I finally finished all my engineering/mat gathering and started doing evacuation runs yesterday from Imeut. Will continue to do so there until it completes, at which time I'll move to the next highest system.

I'm sure others have mentioned it, but I wanted to add my experience: if I keep my Python's heat 12% or lower, I not only skip interdictions, but also bypass hyperinterdictions. Timing on firing the heat sink while spooling for the jump is tricky, but when I'm at 0% heat as I enter hyperspace, I bypass the hyperinterdictions. As cheap as the heatsink reloads are, I'm going to keep running cold to save time.
 
That's weird. I tried that once, and was jumping with something like 6% heat -- and promptly got hyperdicted. Didn't bother afterwards.
 
Another one with visible progress - Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-6 (uninhabited control system near Raijin, 2%)

One of AXI's pilots picked a random system highly unlikely to have anyone else fighting there (unpopular Maelstrom, uninhabited control system) and just killed Thargoids until the bar moved. No expectation that it needs any support this week, but it does suggests that Control systems might not be that difficult to retake in future weeks, so people might start targeting them.

That sounds good; I mentioned a while back that I was quite surprised to see so much preference for Invasion and not a point of progress for a Controlled system, and it is still the case that I will join any worthwhile push to take one. I am quite sure that the Brazilian Pilots would love to have Hupang returned to them!

As much as I dislike the idea of trying to change what actions a Commander likes doing, if we push into Controlled systems then I would be interested to get an idea of how many are apprehensive about getting their first Scout kill and might reach that milestone with a bit of encouragement. I reckon it is a small step from making one of those go pop to building a joy-ride Imperial Clipper and keeping an entire AX conflict zone Scout-free, at which point any resistance in those Controlled systems will see the Clipper army arrive and cower at the name Gutamaya.


I finally finished all my engineering/mat gathering and started doing evacuation runs yesterday from Imeut. Will continue to do so there until it completes, at which time I'll move to the next highest system.

I'm sure others have mentioned it, but I wanted to add my experience: if I keep my Python's heat 12% or lower, I not only skip interdictions, but also bypass hyperinterdictions. Timing on firing the heat sink while spooling for the jump is tricky, but when I'm at 0% heat as I enter hyperspace, I bypass the hyperinterdictions. As cheap as the heatsink reloads are, I'm going to keep running cold to save time.

Thank you, especially for the persistence! Evacuations are not exactly how I would have imagined a closing crescendo for a battle, but they are proving to be most effective!

I had heard about the hyperspace heat a few days ago, though I forgot to try it, then I forgot about it entirely. I will make an effort to test it myself and try to determine whether hyperspace destabilisation stops occurring, occurs with probability based on heat, or remains as before.


Imeut seems complete.

Great, thank you—and well done, everyone! I do not have my Galaxy map to hand at the moment, though will review it relatively soon and hope that everything is still on course to complete all of those Invasions which were already above 10–20%.

Lahua is the system I would love very much to see reach completion, for that will also be a major victory for Commander agency in an environment where M. Taranis has such a large popularity advantage.
 
Lahua (60~65%) = 1 outpost(M) on fire, 1 surface(L) attacked. Both in 10 lightseconds.
29 e Orionis (40~45%)= 1 surface(L) on fire, 1 surface(L) attacked. Both 9800 lightseconds.

Not so confident with orionis, I'll move to Lahua.
 
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Lahua (60~65%) = 1 outpost(M) on fire, 1 surface(L) attacked. Both in 10 lightseconds.
29 e Orionis (40~45%)= 1 surface(L) on fire, 1 surface(L) attacked. Both 9800 lightseconds.

Not so confident with orionis, I'll move to Lahua.
I switched to 29 E Orionis because it was next on the AXI priority list. Only done one run so far. Fired one heat sink as I was jumping to the system (wait to fire until 3 bars left on your jump progress) and avoiding interdiction. Fired four or five more heat sinks on the way in (leaving only 4 left). Then stopped using heatsinks and just kept corkscrewing on my way to the station (heat never went above 25%). Fired one more heatsink on approach to the planet. Result: No hyperdiction and zero interdictions. That was pretty stunning since in Imeut, which was only 8.9 ls away, I would always get hyperdicted and suffer 1-2 interdictions if I didn't pop the heat sinks. It's looking more and more like you can sneak by them in hyperspace/supercruise if you have a zero/very low heat signature.

Since it has a large pad, I may switch from Rescue Python to my Rescue Anaconda. Or I may switch to Lahua, since it looks like it may complete faster. Not sure yet.
 
Interdictions - no surefire way to avoid them, you can try flying defensively because the thargoids still have to line up behind you (they're in supercruise but invisible).
Hyperdictions - can be avoided by being part of a team, instead of getting pulled out by a goid you'll just end up back at the main star of the system you were jumping from. You still end up wasting the fuel but at least you don't have to run for your life/wait for the FSD cooldown before jumping again.
 
FWIW, I just jumped with 0% heat and got hyperdicted. I think it's purely down to RNG, though I suppose it might make the occurrence more or less frequent..
Same here. However, that's one hyperdiction out of 4-6 times I jumped at zero heat. Everytime I jump without going cold, I always got hyperdicted (9+ times).

Interdictions - no surefire way to avoid them, you can try flying defensively because the thargoids still have to line up behind you (they're in supercruise but invisible).
Hyperdictions - can be avoided by being part of a team, instead of getting pulled out by a goid you'll just end up back at the main star of the system you were jumping from. You still end up wasting the fuel but at least you don't have to run for your life/wait for the FSD cooldown before jumping again.
Running cold, I've never been interdicted. On my last run, I avoided using heat sinks (after the initial jump in to the star) and corkscrewed/barrel rolled 9800 ls to my destination running with 25% heat; I got interdicted once.

It's possible in both cases that running cold is a guarantee of stealth, but it certainly seems to help. When it fails, it may be either by design (the Thargoids occasionally see through our ruse) or a bug. After all, I lost my scouting DBX when fleeing an interdiction once, popping heatsinks all the way, and the Interceptor still homed right in and killed me.

Bug or feature - with this game, one can never be sure. :)
 
After all, I lost my scouting DBX when fleeing an interdiction once, popping heatsinks all the way, and the Interceptor still homed right in and killed me.
Running cold doesn't make you invisible, it makes you impossible to target. The interceptor's cannon acts like a gimballed weapon; with a target lock it can lead its shots to hit you accurately, without a target lock it can still fire directly forward so if the thargoid lines you up and you're moving in a straight line, you'll still get hit.
 
Victory in Imeut, Lahua (72%) well on its way to become a non-Taranis victory, and the Taranis-powered 29 e Orionis (46%) is getting most of the attention. Considering only the top few Invasions, we are at a combined 700% progress after 4½ days. This should give us ten completions this cycle, but a combination of dividing efforts and stopping early threatens to make it only seven. Please do what you can to send Commanders to those non-Taranis locations after 29 e Orionis is complete!

Targets at 21:00 19th December 3308:
Lahua Invasion + 2 ports – 72%
29 e Orionis Invasion + 1 port – 46%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 36%
Obamumbo Invasion + 1 port – 28%
HIP 20527 Alert – 24%
HIP 8525 Invasion + 3 ports – 18%
HIP 23716 Recovery – 16%
Mapon Invasion + 2 ports – 14%


Lahua (60~65%) = 1 outpost(M) on fire, 1 surface(L) attacked. Both in 10 lightseconds.
29 e Orionis (40~45%)= 1 surface(L) on fire, 1 surface(L) attacked. Both 9800 lightseconds.

Great idea to list at least the number of ports. I will have to fiddle with the options for uncluttering information, then perhaps also include a few other details such as whether a system will be Human-controlled or unpopulated if won back.
 
As much as I dislike the idea of trying to change what actions a Commander likes doing, if we push into Controlled systems then I would be interested to get an idea of how many are apprehensive about getting their first Scout kill and might reach that milestone with a bit of encouragement.

When I was in HIP 23716 at Wakata Station last week, I and numerous CMDRs spent our time shooting the plentiful Thargoid Scout ships out there. They just kept coming. It is not difficult, especially right in front of an operational Coriolis Starport where you have instant access to safety, repairs, and restock. For an hour's worth of gameplay, I earned a handsome Pilot's Federation bounty reward. Perhaps more importantly, I played this activity for longer and filled my inventory with the four Thargoid Mats that become available when Scouts are defeated. * Note that I do not consider myself an AX pilot, nor do I have a specialized ship for that activity, nor was this activity organized in any way. I showed up and dove in with whoever was there.

NB: I did this with my armed-trader Python which I have been using for everything from both types of evac missions to cargo runs in this war when I didn't feel like using (or couldn't use) my larger ship. Why do I mention this? This ship is not specialized for AX combat at all. I use conventional weapons such as lasers and multicannons, that's all. It is engineered for my daily normal uses, that's all. I have not experienced a close call (in terms of losing this ship) when doing this. I just used up plenty of limpets!

I'd say it's a fun way to contribute, play with other CMDRs, and gain some experience maneuvering your ship and popping some Scouts. If this kind of activity is organized at some point, I'd love to join, especially if it benefits newer and/or any CMDRs who might feel a bit apprehensive about engaging their first Thargoid foes, (Scouts will be there in numbers).
We even popped a number of "invisible" ships.

Let's do it!


* What Mats?
bio-mechanical conduits
propulsion elements
weapon parts
wreckage components
Check your inventory. If you want, just go! :)
 
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Lahua (82%) is getting there; just slain a Medusa above Russell Plant, its remaining planetary port. In a very bold move, Ildano (18%) just took a massive surge. Nice to see, though we really need to direct that effort at Lahua, 29 e Orionis, Muruidooges and Obamumbo. HIP 8825 joins the fight.

Targets at 01:00 20th December 3308:
Lahua Invasion + 2 ports – 82%
29 e Orionis Invasion + 1 port – 64%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 38%
Obamumbo Invasion + 1 port – 30%
HIP 20527 Alert – 24%
HIP 8525 Invasion + 3 ports – 20%
Ildano Invasion + 1 port – 18%
HIP 23716 Recovery – 16%
 
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Lahua is a nice system to 'work.' Sanger Enterprise (S,M pads) is very close to drop-in. You can pick up missions to source needed commodities and take a bunch of wounded on the away-bound trip. The wounded go to Ross 112 which is closer at 70LY compared to working in Imeut (for example).
Once you have dropped off the wounded, you can pick up the needed commodities on the return trip.
To make this efficient, I accepted missions for foodstuffs.* Many of these are available in a nearby system, Lalande 8441 at Mourelle Orbital, just one jump away.

* Fruits & veggies, grain, liquor, water, and animal meat are all available at one stop.
Clothing is available at the nearby Clebsch Enterprise station in this system.
 
Lahua (92%) and 29 e Orionis (88%) all but complete; I am quite sure this will be the case during the day, so please do what you can to redirect attention to Muruidooges (44%) and Obamumbo (34%). You can even point out truthfully that it is well within our capacity—at just after 5 days, those top Invasion systems combined are just over 800%, which should be a projected 11 Invasions (6 more victories).

Some drop-off before the progress wipe is likely to leave HIP 8525 short to make it 10 (5 more), but I presume that a lot of Commanders will pile into Ildano by M. Taranis then just stop after that for lack of a target. This would leave Muruidooges and Obamumbo short, resulting in only 8 (3 more), so again—I hope the importance of targeting by actual progress is clear, as is directing other Commanders to those progress locations.

I have not forgotten about the HIP 20527 Alert progress, nor that the above estimate excluded the repelled Alert in Vukurbeh. This is because I (and presumably we all) have no proper way to measure the overlap between Alert capacity and Invasion capacity. That is to say, how much capacity it would detract from Invasions if there were a rush to complete an Alert.

Targets at 08:10 20th December 3308:
Lahua Invasion + 2 ports – 92%
29 e Orionis Invasion + 1 port – 88%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 44%
Obamumbo Invasion + 1 port – 34%
HIP 20527 Alert – 26%
HIP 8525 Invasion + 3 ports – 22%
Ildano Invasion + 1 port – 22%
HIP 23716 Recovery – 18%
 
I think we're going to need a shift to cargo hauling. The invasions and recoveries have timers based on the number of active/damaged starports respectively. That being the case we're going to find ourselves playing whack-a-mole with Alerts/short invasions if we don't get the stations repaired.
 
I think we're going to need a shift to cargo hauling. The invasions and recoveries have timers based on the number of active/damaged starports respectively. That being the case we're going to find ourselves playing whack-a-mole with Alerts/short invasions if we don't get the stations repaired.

That is one possibility, yes—though it is technically unknown, and the Galaxy map suggests that we may not have to worry about Recovery systems. Looking at how it shows ongoing versus defended Invasions, it communicates what will happen in response to inaction versus action, specifically which system state comes next. Then, if you look over at HIP 23716, you can see that it is different in having only the Human control as a possible outcome. It says we will control it after some time if nothing happens, yet the progress also has the Human control colour code.

On that front, we will gain information regardless of whether HIP 23716 is completed. It seems clear that we retain control, though it would be nice to know how the port activation works:
  • If a port activates in response to inaction, I will be immediately against putting any effort into completing a Recovery, except for one as a test to discover what happens if completed.
  • If ports remain the same in response to inaction, I suggest choosing one Recovery system to disregard as a test to discover what happens if the total time expires. In this scenario, it is possible that port reactivation is completely independent of the war system.
  • If a port activates in response to action, I would want to know whether that happens anyway after inaction.
  • If all ports activate in response to action, it is presumably a fast-track mechanism. Personally I do not think that is worth the effort, but if I see Recovery progress then I will report it and try to ensure it finishes within the cycle. Either way, I would still want to know what inaction would have done!
Regarding an actual shift to cargo-hauling, I suggest first looking over the number of Controlled systems and concluding instead that we will need more combat. Or rather, if Recovery turns out to be important then we will need to manage it carefully so that cargo effort completes Recovery systems, combat effort completes Controlled systems, and the excess from both might combine to complete a couple of Invasion systems.

If Recovery turns out to be unimportant, or if it is important but only reactivates one port, then stopping Invasions and Alerts should take priority so that all pilot roles have a place and that those ports stay online in the first place.
 
In which case step 1 is to get a list of how many damaged starports are in each of the defended systems, from which we can select which to start repairing come Thursday.
 
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