Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Aleks Zuno]

Thank you both! Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3 and HIP 8033 are also both delivered now; it was a good amount before the hour, hopefully to show soon. I am a bit wary that the new strength gradients may not be quite right, but the Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0 completion is reassuring, so I imagine at worst a system may reach 99.9% and need a few dozen units more.

Calling @Cmdr Daedalus Spyke! Again no rush, though—if you are at a Spire, by all means deliver a bit later.

Additional: Those four deliveries look good! I am now a little curious to see by how much they were completed...

Additional additional:

System	Completion	Over-delivered	Estimation
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3	101.8614%	+1.47%	+0.39%
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0	101.1242%	+0.94%	+0.18%
HIP 8033	100.3385%	+0.34%	−0.0015%
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-1	100.4868%	+0.16%	+0.33%

That fits well with our non-Leigong measurements revealing likely underestimation with the Leigong measurements, due to significantly increased activity in the area! The 5 Ly junction prompted the use of higher estimates for the ~10 Ly systems rather than their actual measurements; we had already gathered HIP 8033 and opted to use its measurements, and it turns out that the amount over-gathered was narrowly enough to cover the discrepancy.

 

[Cmdr Daedalus Spyke]

Payload is secure. I saw the progress earlier this morning but couldn't drop off until now.
Edit to add: System is showing as clear both in-game and on DCoH now.

 

[Kira Goto]

So, been having this thought - we know that pod recovery has an effect only on inhabited counterstrike/periphery controls now, but what about populated periphery alerts?

Not that it’d be easy to test for unless one found a system seeing little or no activity with, eg, only starports, and being certain that it isn’t caused by spire activities.

(Also, while I realize there might not be sufficient data points to suggest it, is there any evidence of increased invasion difficulty as well from the three of this week?)

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in HIPs 20712, 8033 and 10118, Holvandalla, Arietis Sectors ZE-R b4-3, XJ-R b4-0 and YE-R b4-1, Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 and Col 285 Sectors BA-P c6-16 and BF-E b13-0! M. Leigong is reduced to HIP 9180 only, and I am quite sure Commanders will choose to suspend its Alerts completely rather than leaving it with one every two weeks.

Peripheries at 07:30 6th December 3309:
One matrix system with 95% — Leigong 14 Ly
Five systems with 36% — Thor 18–19 Ly, 1 inhabited, 1544–4279 strength

Alerts, trailing and Wednesday caution:
HIP 20024 Alert 48% — Thor 19 Ly, 1959 Ls outpost, 2572 Ls planet
HIP 11111 Alert 36% *37% — Oya 24 Ly, 2567 Ls outpost, 2474 Ls planet

Evictions:
HIP 22524 Control 76% *77.3% — Indra 20 Ly, 1035 strength
Lei Hsini Control 70% — Indra 21 Ly, 1185 strength

Clean-up:
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16 Alert 96% — Hadad 20 Ly
HIP 9180 Matrix 94% *95.6% — Leigong 14 Ly
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3 Control 56% — Indra 19 Ly, 1080 strength
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 Control 56% — Indra 20 Ly, 970 strength
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13 Control 54% — Indra 19 Ly, 1183 strength
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1 Alert 22% *23.6% — Indra 17 Ly
HIP 21475 Alert 20% — Indra 18 Ly


Some Commanders at the Spire site were curious regarding the next step; the realistic options are:

• Numerically it should be M. Hadad; even with the new strengths its final twenty sum is comparable to M. Taranis, and it has a guaranteed Spire site until the end:
  • Spire support or not, INIV intends keeping our inner M. Hadad space defended and the outer space at least neutral by system count.
  • Given a dependable ~70% weekly, we can give dependable cleared peripheries to collapse it while also progressing and completing the stored payloads for later.
  • Those top few payloads are 20882 12717 6712 4779 2531, quite similar to M. Taranis and just as achievable.
  • It has the worst Alerts at present, simply begging to be silenced.
• M. Oya clearly is close by system count, if a little premature:
  • SNPX has a payload list ready; the full total is ~193000, although for comparison those top systems are 24000 24000 21327 18182 14211 with six other large systems around 8000–14000.
  • If chosen next, INIV can lend some payload preparation support after M. Hadad is happy for the week.
  • Mind that the Spire siege is not needed until some of those inner payloads are ready!
• The final ten at M. Raijin looks not much worse than M. Taranis, just with more time needed to get to that point.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Thor might also be worth considering (though I concur on Hadad making sense to do first) just to cut down on distractions before taking on the tougher ones.
- relatively sparse exterior so its ability to place high-end Alerts on the way in will be limited
- inner core nowhere near as dense as Oya or Raijin
- final spire is relatively far out so would provide good but relatively low-stakes practice at managing that situation before Raijin and others where it becomes more critical.
- has an existing periphery group fighting there anyway most weeks

 

[Aleks Zuno]

The M. Raijin final Spire is fourth-closest, but indeed M. Thor could be a good test for whether Commanders are able to give us a partial periphery then stop. Alternatively, I wonder whether a common practice should become to leave each Matrix system with one Control system to awaken it again, presumably giving us a rolling supply of them!

So, been having this thought - we know that pod recovery has an effect only on inhabited counterstrike/periphery controls now, but what about populated periphery alerts?
Not that it’d be easy to test for unless one found a system seeing little or no activity with, eg, only starports, and being certain that it isn’t caused by spire activities.

An opportunity to test it approaches; perhaps collect some T. Oya survivors today, then deliver them all tomorrow? If anything happens, it ought to be visible at Gliese 9035 and Aowicha. Chinas definitely will not be peripheral being at M. Raijin, and Kurumanit probably will not either, although I will skip checking given that M. Oya seems a more clear test location!

(Also, while I realize there might not be sufficient data points to suggest it, is there any evidence of increased invasion difficulty as well from the three of this week?)

Not significantly, I think—they were addressed quite promptly as expected, with INTRA action reports reaching a quite typical 8–10. That measure was what amazed me during the AXI party on Saturday, which caused unprecedented amounts over 30 at one Spire site!

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

Let's do Hadad first, while we are looking for some more commanders assisting with the sample harvest. Therefore we are planning an information event on our discord within the next two weeks.

We are not very interested in doing all this with always the same 5 - 7 commanders.

 

[Cmdr Daedalus Spyke]

I've been prepping for Hadad for a bit now and I already have the following prepped on a carrier for the 85% assuming values haven't changed too much
System / Full sample str = 15% needed
----------------------------------------
HIP 32764 / 1061 = 160
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6 / 1249 = 188
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1 / 1376 = 207
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1 / 1540 = 231
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-2 / 1592 = 239
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-0 / 1804 = 271
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2 / 2039 = 306

 

[Leadfoot]

For the big three of Indra, Raijin and Cocijo then calculations or not that'll probably be at least somewhat unavoidable. I'd be surprised if Thor or Oya went entirely smoothly either.

(Though it does also feel like it won't be necessary to take out all eight to make the point)

Now we just have to figure out how to send them a message that we want to discuss the terms of their surrender.*


*Of course, that will be right after the next update drops followed by a huge number of zombie drones coming after us...

 

[Aleks Zuno]

I've been prepping for Hadad for a bit now and I already have the following prepped on a carrier for the 85% assuming values haven't changed too much

Goodness; thank you! That is very much above-and-beyond, given that we know not the level of Spire support it may attract, but indeed it covers next week if 85% weekly becomes the case. Some diligence due to respect for your time:

• With no Spire support we will just be holding M. Hadad at a reasonable distance, not necessarily keeping or recapturing every system immediately. A volley of peripheral systems completed normally is a sensible possibility, though! That being the case, your 15% payloads soften the sweep instead.
• The erosion plan proceeds with 66–70% Spire support, perhaps as low as 50% weekly if we can get also one intermediate 100% to clear the Spire congestion. Obviously then 15% payloads would be too little, unfortunately not something which can be predicted easily.

Next week in particular, the hefty HIP 29226 comes first. Notably, having that one strong non-peripheral system we must clear gives us at least some opportunity to gauge the Spire support that week!

Additional: HIP 9180 at 99%!

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Next week would be a good time to use those samples if possible - assuming that they're not stored for ease of separate delivery - since it will be a week where the majority of Alerts are placed well inside the boundary [1], and that might well not be true of future weeks.

I think the QM-B b14-2 system is likely to end up as 11th (or 12th depending on how sorting gets rounded) as an Alert interposes - but the others should all end up peripheral.

[1] Which does have the downside of course that next week will be a week with a bunch of high-difficulty Alerts which Spire actions won't help with.

 

[Kira Goto]

Now we just have to figure out how to send them a message that we want to discuss the terms of their surrender.*

Make sure they don’t bring a hammer to the negotiating table.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Also an irksome moment and I feel quite bad for having to mention it—I have just noticed that poor @Cmdr Daedalus Spyke has the old strength amounts from prior to week 52, where those amounts will not be as much as 15% now. In effect, the response becomes the same as if the periphery gets less than 85%.

The holding-plan is to leave high-difficulty inner Alerts alone and match them with Control evictions, be they the same systems or otherwise! In theory there is also a layer of possibly allowing specific expansion, if it threatens nothing and lowers the upkeep enough to be worth eroding it again later, although I have an exciting feeling that such will not be necessary.

 

[Cmdr Daedalus Spyke]

The past two weeks, Hadad has had 4 alerts in the periphery. I just assume that's the normal state for it at this point.
This means that it has 2 Spires in periphery, 4 Alerts, and 4 Control systems if the pattern holds.

 

[Medi0cr3]

old strength amounts from prior to week 52, where those amounts will not be as much as 15% now

Will there be a "version" change on the iniv website for strength amounts. Going forward people wont remember to do the extra 30% and cause this situation with how highly regarded and utilized INIVs tool is.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Will there be a "version" change on the iniv website for strength amounts. Going forward people wont remember to do the extra 30% and cause this situation with how highly regarded and utilized INIVs tool is.

Since a week or so ago, there already is! V has adjusted it so it uses my new junction list when you look at weeks 52 onwards; try comparing the top M. Hadad target for week 50 versus week 53.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

The past two weeks, Hadad has had 4 alerts in the periphery. I just assume that's the normal state for it at this point.
This means that it has 2 Spires in periphery, 4 Alerts, and 4 Control systems if the pattern holds.

Next week (assuming as is likely that the current Alert at Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16 is finished off) should be 2 Spires, 2 Alerts and 6 Controls.

The complication at HIP 29226 aside, a 3-week cycle of two weeks of 2:4:4 and one of 2:2:6 would probably be reasonably stable ... and looking at the map again suggests a minor advantage to starting the attack in the 2:2:6 week as the most likely way to reduce Hadad below 5 Alerts total in following weeks.

The holding-plan is to leave high-difficulty inner Alerts alone and match them with Control evictions, be they the same systems or otherwise! In theory there is also a layer of possibly allowing specific expansion, if it threatens nothing and lowers the upkeep enough to be worth eroding it again later

This week at Leigong also suggests that it's also not a problem to allow an Invasion through - other than potentially it taking up a periphery slot for a further week, though of course sometimes that also might be beneficial to avoid retaking a spire too soon.

(Nothing likely to be relevant for Hadad but could be very important for Raijin or possibly Oya)

 

[DarkSession]

Looks like HIP 9180 is now complete as well. Incredible work everyone!
On behalf of all the player groups near Leigong I want to thank everyone who helped in the efforts to clear Leigong.

As far as our group is concerned, we will now join the efforts at the other titans to help them get rid of their caustic neighbors as well.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Great job at the Spire site, and well done to Knights of Isarian for reducing M. Leigong as far as you did! Having watched the targets list closely, it was not without notice that ISAR were emptying it weekly for quite a while, the most efficient erosion path for as long as it continues.

In the context of ending Alerts wherever possible, it was pleasing enough for that mission to have HIP 8033 evicted, and now said mission is very happy indeed!

 

[Phill P]

We won't be able to get it done but for what it's worth we hit HIP 29226 with 100 samples and worked it out to be 8478 to clear as an Alert. Academic as it won't get done but useful for us.