Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Ian Doncaster]

It won't prove anything to someone with unrealistic expectations of exactitude but statistical analysis is for when you can't get absolute hard numbers and the reason why we used it instead

Definitely agreed on that - the sort of "clean tests" most Political BGS researchers like to use won't do much good here. Patterns emerging over time is the only option for figuring out more than the basics presented in-game.

On that, it's only two data points but any idea what's going on in Neites and Jeng this week? Both inhabited Alerts, both look comparable, in terms of recorded activity Neites has had a bit more but Jeng has had more supplies whereas Neites is purely evacuations ... Neites is about 1/4 done while Jeng has only just got to 2%. Neither of our theories about difficulty or effectiveness seem to explain that straightforwardly: obviously there's always "most of the activity in Neites wasn't recorded to 3rd-party tools" as an easy answer, but have you seen anything else that might explain the difference?

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

am a bit combatted out so gonna try some passenger runs. quick question...... if I bring in my python and spec up for passengers, will it need much engineering for a quick in and out of an orbital platform ? I know it's daft but I absolutely hate losing ships (there was a time I considered playing iron man) so would rather not suck it and see if it is a certain death sentence. I will do it in solo so that 1) I get access to the medium pad right away and 2) It will be before the interceptors spawn.

thanks.

 

[BDelacroix]

am a bit combatted out so gonna try some passenger runs. quick question...... if I bring in my python and spec up for passengers, will it need much engineering for a quick in and out of an orbital platform ? I know it's daft but I absolutely hate losing ships (there was a time I considered playing iron man) so would rather not suck it and see if it is a certain death sentence. I will do it in solo so that 1) I get access to the medium pad right away and 2) It will be before the interceptors spawn.

thanks.

If you can boost over 300, no worries. Even my t9 which couldn't boost over 300 made it once. I forget why I did that. It was torn up quite a bit, though.
Have a friend doing these and her dolphin is not engineered. She does fine.

Get interdicted by thargoids? Just boost and reenter FSD. Don't turn around to see what kind of interceptor it is.

 

[Phill P]

Definitely agreed on that - the sort of "clean tests" most Political BGS researchers like to use won't do much good here. Patterns emerging over time is the only option for figuring out more than the basics presented in-game.

On that, it's only two data points but any idea what's going on in Neites and Jeng this week? Both inhabited Alerts, both look comparable, in terms of recorded activity Neites has had a bit more but Jeng has had more supplies whereas Neites is purely evacuations ... Neites is about 1/4 done while Jeng has only just got to 2%. Neither of our theories about difficulty or effectiveness seem to explain that straightforwardly: obviously there's always "most of the activity in Neites wasn't recorded to 3rd-party tools" as an easy answer, but have you seen anything else that might explain the difference?

Good question. In Alert systems deliveries alone should move the bar faster than rescues alone and vice versa in Invasion systems, but we have also found that doing a mix of both negates to a point the disadvantages of each alone. Combining actions confers a bonus of its own that goes beyond the mere extra number of CMDRs.

However, more numbers doing something less effective, or a more focused effort over more time, will still work to slowly move the bar and brute force it, as it were.

I can offer a theory based on the figures on INARA. As we know not everyone is on INARA but most people serious about effecting change are and it's normally good enough to show a snapshot of the general community effort that does match up with the in game progress to a point. As long as you keep in mind that INARA's scoring methods have nothing to do with the Thargoid War Machine.

According to INARA Jeng has had 16446 actions since the 12th and Neites has had 26587. It doesn't seem a lot but Neites has had more work done on it consistently over the week since the 12th, with a few thousand actions every day as opposed to only the last 3 days in earnest for Jeng. The bar at Neites in the last 2 days hasn't actually moved that much more than in Jeng so I think the progress has simply been more cumulative over the week, with Neites gaining a pip or two each day where Jeng has not.

If we can get done in Muruidooges with time to spare perhaps we can pile on Neites with deliveries but it's an outside chance. If not, we're on it the moment it gets invaded in the morning.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

According to INARA Jeng has had 16446 actions since the 12th and Neites has had 26587. It doesn't seem a lot but Neites has had more work done on it consistently over the week since the 12th, with a few thousand actions every day as opposed to only the last 3 days in earnest for Jeng. The bar at Neites in the last 2 days hasn't actually moved that much more than in Jeng so I think the progress has simply been more cumulative over the week, with Neites gaining a pip or two each day where Jeng has not.

True, but if 26587 over a week is enough to gain a pip or two each day, then that gives something like 2500 actions for each pip.
16446 over the same week should give more than a single pip over the course of the week, regardless of how it's distributed.

It's possible perhaps that Jeng is very close to two pips now (so ~8000 actions per pip) so does the rest being explained by activity mixes (regardless of Inara numbers, I believe Jeng was very evac-heavy) sound plausible for differences in effectiveness between actions if Neites was mostly an effective mix and Jeng was mostly an ineffective one?

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

How far from the rescue ships are those systems and how much does it end up paying you per passenger from each system?

If the value of the cargo/passengers matters for progress then it could be that rescues from one system are worth more than others (this would be really poorly balanced).

 

[Phill P]

True, but if 26587 over a week is enough to gain a pip or two each day, then that gives something like 2500 actions for each pip.
16446 over the same week should give more than a single pip over the course of the week, regardless of how it's distributed.

It's possible perhaps that Jeng is very close to two pips now (so ~8000 actions per pip) so does the rest being explained by activity mixes (regardless of Inara numbers, I believe Jeng was very evac-heavy) sound plausible for differences in effectiveness between actions if Neites was mostly an effective mix and Jeng was mostly an ineffective one?

Jeng is now on two pips. Both Jeng and Neites have been evac heavy, Neites actually more so, but even in Jeng the mix with deliveries isn't that high. A pip or two a day is still glacial progress on both counts. Muruidooges moved steadily at a pip per hour throughout last night from 1AM to 8AM which is generally the quietest time.

I am absolutely positive there are factors yet to be discovered but not to the point where we need to start second guessing the ones we have already found. Just as the law of conservation of mass became the law of conservation of energy when it was discovered that mass and energy were interchangeable, so the new factors as we discover them will further put the ones we have already discovered into context.

 

[Phill P]

How far from the rescue ships are those systems and how much does it end up paying you per passenger from each system?

If the value of the cargo/passengers matters for progress then it could be that rescues from one system are worth more than others (this would be really poorly balanced).

Rescue ship distance varies from 120-190ly and is more regularly from 120-160ly. The passenger missions on the passenger board are very slightly affected by distance but not by much. An 80 passenger mission will still pay from 9-12 million. Not a big enough difference to make any real dent on progress and, speaking as the Coordinator of a rescue squad, not a priority for us at all. Some squad members have made 3-4 billion from rescues since the war started just by doing what we were doing anyway.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

am a bit combatted out so gonna try some passenger runs. quick question...... if I bring in my python and spec up for passengers, will it need much engineering for a quick in and out of an orbital platform ?

Not much engineering! If I restrict engineering to Felicity Farseer only, my initial suggestion for a passenger-only Python is something like this, which should have enough total range for around six jumps without needing to dock for more fuel on the way. Change some passengers for cargo if you want to take some of the wounded or critically-wounded escape pods, and note that a touch of Distributor engineering would give you more frequent boosting.

Exactly as noted earlier, you do not need enough speed to outrun an Interceptor necessarily, just enough to escape while it wastes time deploying the Swarm rather than learning how to use its Mass-lock advantage. The heat sinks can keep Silent Running active, or be used for damaged Starports of course, though I imagine an Anaconda would be more efficient for that.

That loadout has around half the durability of a typical AX combat loadout, and should be enough for you to determine whether to install/engineer more protection or whether you can avoid damage enough that it would be as well to sacrifice protection (for higher payload or fewer jumps). Scouts will graze it a bit, Cyclops attention should be no problem for a few damage bursts if you go silent and evade as soon as possible, and mind that a few Swarm missiles likely will put several modules offline.

If you need anti-Caustic, increase the Power plant a bit and attach some heat-inducing weapons.

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

thanks. I did a couple of runs before lunch and went without incident. is there any advantage in terms of the war effort to taking the passengers from the burning base under attack (much more risky and medium pad only) Vs taking the same missions from a star port in the same system (less risky and large pads so much so I am thinking of being greedy and using my T9)

 

[Phill P]

@Phill P — Thank you ever so much for all of the efforts, analysis and taking the time to describe it to us, and indeed both you personally and PDES plurally! You have been focused from the start on achieving superior use of time, doubtless with the vision of raising the number of victories per time

Ultimately that was our hope, yes. Also we wanted to know if changing a system was simply a matter of throwing numbers at it or whether smaller, focused operations would work too, since the latter was where a smaller squad could specialise. I imagine a lot of smaller squads were asking the same question.

, though at minimum it saves time for others.

At the very least, yes, we hoped it would help everyone maximise their time whatever other philosophies or strategies they had.

Either way, for me that is one of the most respectful deeds I can imagine.

You're welcome.

If it is any consolation, I have noticed quite a few AX pilots seeking systems specifically with attacked planetary ports at not more than 1000–1500 Ls, just for the quick arrival and easier zero-Swarm fight. Naturally this was with no regard for the completion prospect! I imagine if you lead an AX division, you would already have Limpet resupply operations set up by the further-out Conflict zones to remove that excuse for fighting elsewhere.

I would if you could park carriers in system. The best I can do is have mine in a system next door.

For AX it matters less because once they get to a zone they can stay there and farm it. By contrast the best weapon a rescue ship has is speed. We are only staying long enough to pick up passengers or deliver supplies so we're in and out, jumping all the time. That said some of the squad moan at me when we don't have any Ground Ports because they like doing them. Even though they take a little longer they can use large ships so if a system has two Outposts and a Ground Port the Ground Port is often preferred for the L pads.

Which is also a consideration, of course. An efficiency drive is one thing but having a variety of things people like doing is also important.

I love it! Thor might not, meanwhile I enjoy the linguistic thought that translating "Donnerstag" literally from German to English, in a way which an algorithm would not think to do, yields "Day of Thunder".

Well all the maelstroms are named after storm, lightning or thunder gods from various cultures and mythologies so it certainly fits the theme.

 

[Phill P]

thanks. I did a couple of runs before lunch and went without incident. is there any advantage in terms of the war effort to taking the passengers from the burning base under attack (much more risky and medium pad only) Vs taking the same missions from a star port in the same system (less risky and large pads so much so I am thinking of being greedy and using my T9)

We don't know for sure but we believe it doesn't matter unless it is the only station left, and by that time it's usually damaged anyway. While it is possible to clear out larger numbers with less hassle it seems better to do so. The fastest systems for us to clear have been where we had a large unattacked station for rescues and deliveries with an attacked outpost for our AX friends because they said those were the least buggy.

 

[Fnord Velkor]

....

If we can get done in Muruidooges with time to spare perhaps we can pile on Neites with deliveries but it's an outside chance.....

Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere but what do those INARA figures for "rescues" and "supplies" cover? Is rescues the number of persons moved (in passenger or casualty) or the number of missions and the same for supplies - it is the amount of stuff or the number of missions and (if "stuff") is it only stuff for missions?

 

[Phill P]

Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere but what do the figures for "rescues" and "supplies" cover? Is rescues the number of persons moved (in passenger or casualty) or the number of missions and the same for supplies - it is the amount of stuff or the number of missions and (if "stuff") is it only stuff for missions?

It's just how INARA counts actions. How the game reacts to them is not the same, so we only use the numbers as a rough guide to community activity.

 

[Fnord Velkor]

It's just how INARA counts actions. How the game reacts to them is not the same, so we only use the numbers as a rough guide to community activity.

My reason for asking is for example casualty evacuation - is it more effective to take 20 missions which may have say 30 casualties or 10 missions if that evacuates more than 30? Same with supplies - say 20 missions totalling 180tonnes or 10 missions totalling 240? Does that make sense?

 

[Leadfoot]

am a bit combatted out so gonna try some passenger runs. quick question...... if I bring in my python and spec up for passengers, will it need much engineering for a quick in and out of an orbital platform ? I know it's daft but I absolutely hate losing ships (there was a time I considered playing iron man) so would rather not suck it and see if it is a certain death sentence. I will do it in solo so that 1) I get access to the medium pad right away and 2) It will be before the interceptors spawn.

thanks.

If you can boost over 300, no worries. Even my t9 which couldn't boost over 300 made it once. I forget why I did that. It was torn up quite a bit, though.
Have a friend doing these and her dolphin is not engineered. She does fine.

Absolutely this. And a python is one of the best ones to use for platforms. You can also use a crate Mark 2 but I think the python is better just because.

Get interdicted by thargoids? Just boost and reenter FSD. Don't turn around to see what kind of interceptor it is.

Please everyone note this for future reference. The one time I switched on the external camera and swung it around to see who was shooting at me it was three interceptors with those swirly things coming right at me and by the time I got back in my seat I was already down to 5% hull.

When you're under attack, and your radar shows swirly things around a white thing, don't do any rubbernecking at that time. It'll look pretty right up until the time you blow up.

 

[Phill P]

My reason for asking is for example casualty evacuation - is it more effective to take 20 missions which may have say 30 casualties or 10 missions if that evacuates more than 30? Same with supplies - say 20 missions totalling 180tonnes or 10 missions totalling 240? Does that make sense?

It makes perfect sense. I'm just not sure what the answer is

With deliveries I can give you the answer from Sally

With rescues it is less clear. Until a station becomes damaged all of the injured or wounded missions taken at once would not outnumber e.g. two missions for 80 passengers in my Conda. Once a station is damaged it is possible to outnumber passengers with critically wounded and will also be many more missions taken at once. Taking those does move the bar faster than passengers at that stage. Until then passenger missions are of greater value. Whether it is purely about numbers we don't know.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

An 80 passenger mission will still pay from 9-12 million. Not a big enough difference to make any real dent on progress and, speaking as the Coordinator of a rescue squad, not a priority for us at all. Some squad members have made 3-4 billion from rescues since the war started just by doing what we were doing anyway.

That could still mean like a 25% optimization (if it's credit-value based) - also in the same system if you take missions from a different superpower with a different rescue ship further away/paying more.

With deliveries I can give you the answer from Sally

Trade doing equal value to missions is something I considered (but never got around to testing) and it also implies that doing higher bulk wing missions is effective mostly because of the bulk.

The important question here still is does value matter or bulk:

• Can you cheese this by carrier-laundering the goods before selling at the market?
• Is trading more expensive goods worth more than trading cheap goods? (Can it even be enough to override no/low demand in extreme cases)

A lot of the demand is for low value goods where dumping gold or tritium bought from a carrier at minimum price could be worth the same as hundreds of missions for animal meat or wine. If it's based on galactic average (and strongly tied to demand) then the calculation will depend on the actual station, but still just trading the most expensive community can still be 5-10x more efficient as long as there's a supply nearby.

 

[Phill P]

That could still mean like a 25% optimization (if it's credit-value based) - also in the same system if you take missions from a different superpower with a different rescue ship further away/paying more.

I can't speak for the motives of others but it hasn't seemed to be a factor so far in how long a system takes to clear. 9 or 12 million per mission, when you're doing them all day it doesn't matter much. 9 million takes 3 jumps, 12 million 4. Non issue for us.

Trade doing equal value to missions is something I considered (but never got around to testing) and it also implies that doing higher bulk wing missions is effective mostly because of the bulk.

The important question here still is does value matter or bulk:

• Can you cheese this by carrier-laundering the goods before selling at the market?
• Is trading more expensive goods worth more than trading cheap goods? (Can it even be enough to override no/low demand in extreme cases)

A lot of the demand is for low value goods where dumping gold or tritium bought from a carrier at minimum price could be worth the same as hundreds of missions for animal meat or wine. If it's based on galactic average (and strongly tied to demand) then the calculation will depend on the actual station, but still just trading the most expensive community can still be 5-10x more efficient as long as there's a supply nearby.

There's no evidence the value makes a difference at this time. The system honestly doesn't appear that sophisticated. I think it would be unbalanced if the monetary value was considered. Commodity markets are based on the underlying economy, so in one system like extraction it may be impossible to make more than a couple of thousand in profit per ton no matter what you sell but in a refinery system you could make 18 thousand a ton selling bertrandite, so it would be illogical to restrict some systems over others based on profit just because they're not the best economy for it.

Until there's some evidence to suggest that value is a factor we don't think it matters, just the tonnage and being in high demand.

 

[Fnord Velkor]

It makes perfect sense. I'm just not sure what the answer is

With deliveries I can give you the answer from Sally

...

With rescues it is less clear. Until a station becomes damaged all of the injured or wounded missions taken at once would not outnumber e.g. two missions for 80 passengers in my Conda. Once a station is damaged it is possible to outnumber passengers with critically wounded and will also be many more missions taken at once. Taking those does move the bar faster than passengers at that stage. Until then passenger missions are of greater value. Whether it is purely about numbers we don't know.

That is very informative. So maximise the supply missions and top-up with the high-demand commodities for the market.

The answer to @Disemboweled Ego also clarifies - tonnage over credits.

Great info for the lone soloist non-combat type like me.

So I shall concentrate on supply stuff until damaged stations offer escape pods full of wounded.