Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Kira Goto]

Could always poke the ones at the other two Titans if it leaves spire-beating players unoccupied throughout the remainder of the Thor assault, once its are all defeated... assuming that the Thargoids will never attempt to recapture them in the near-future. I don't expect they would be placing any new ones, anyway...

... but then it's also unclear what Frontier will or won't have the last three Titans do. As it is Thor will not be vulnerable for another few weeks, the pace possibly/probably slowing down once the spires are gone. And since its control sphere is largely devoid of any populated systems, the counterstrike port CZs will not speed it up that significantly either, I'd imagine. If they did want them all defeated by September, this pace isn't really going to do it.

 

[SergMx]

I don't pay much attention to the general picture myself, but somewhere I heard a phrase that the number of common systems occupied by Thargoids doesn't change.
For example, with 8 Titans, there were 500 systems occupied,
and the same with three.
When there's one Titan left, he'll have 500 systems. Is that right?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I don't pay much attention to the general picture myself, but somewhere I heard a phrase that the number of common systems occupied by Thargoids doesn't change.
For example, with 8 Titans, there were 500 systems occupied,
and the same with three.
When there's one Titan left, he'll have 500 systems. Is that right?

No, not really.

For various reasons the number of Thargoid-held systems was approximately stable between the start of the attack on Taranis and the end of the attack on Hadad, as the general Thargoid expansion was almost exactly cancelled out by the focused attack on the Titan of the month. That's been unusual - the rest of the time there's either been a noticeable rise or a noticeable fall.

Since Hadad was destroyed the Thargoid expansion has been much much weaker, so they're consistently losing systems - heavily at whichever Titan is being targeted for destruction, at best staying stable at the others. Conversely, before Taranis became vulnerable, the number of Thargoid-occupied systems had been rising gradually for a while. Going back further it's been up and down a lot - as high as 1186, and as low (ignoring their arrival!) as 288.

Assuming nothing more interesting happens, it's likely to fall to a little under 400 by the time Thor is destroyed, and a little under 200 by the time whichever of Raijin or Cocijo is the 7th goes.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Last quick update for week 86—HIP 18705 is delivered and should be complete soon, after which we are not in session as such, although I am taking another Commander for some hunting and material-gathering at Conflict zones in Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-2 (82%). It is not in the hope for completion necessarily, but at least ought to give it a little more of a chance!

 

[Kira Goto]

Coming to think of that brief period where peripheral progress had gone wonky (and a continued observing of a discrepancy of totalled spire progress vs the reported peripheral bonus applied to the current outermost Raijin system), I've noticed that some of it appears to just have gone "missing". Going by the linked system/example, it says to be 66% complete, but should be somewhere around 77.4% if going by all spires combined (36%, 16%, 3x5%, 2x4%, plus an extra 2.46% from decimal points across the different ones).

Perhaps more relevant for the spire bonus that was "lost" at Thor even if it occurred early on during the control clearance effort, but still annoying nonetheless, because I don't exactly understand how Elite (or the servers) has/have managed to misplace it. I doubt this is any kind of issue with the site itself as it uses the game's journal figures for its progress reporting.

Nor can invasions really explain it away for Raijin, as they so far have all occurred too far inward to be considered peripheral (though I presume that, given their lack of mention in the 18.06 patch notes* - memory permitting - meaning they will benefit from spire assistance... though whether it should be considered beneficial is another matter.)

*After editing for the third or fourth time... not technically 18.06 patch notes but within that system.

 

[SergMx]

No, not really.
...

Let's put it this way, you have a screenshot of the left fold of Thargoid War at your fingertips. At the very beginning of the war, well after a while as all 8 Titans arrived ?
If not, I'll search youtube and other sources. There's a prominent total number of ...

 

[Grimscrub]

Let's put it this way, you have a screenshot of the left fold of Thargoid War at your fingertips. At the very beginning of the war, well after a while as all 8 Titans arrived ?
If not, I'll search youtube and other sources. There's a prominent total number of ...

For what it's worth, we* have 3d maps week by week since DCoH really got in gear at very least. https://dcoh.watch/edmap/historical
We also have the stats page https://dcoh.watch/stats noting a high of ~1190 thargoid controlled systems, which dipped to ~290 at the height of sampling efficacy, before building back up, and now waning again.

...So the numbers have changed plenty over the course of the war through highs, lows, and the very early 'some titans arrived before others, so not all expanded at the same time/to the same extent, even before human action'

 

[Blaggerdy]

Coming to think of that brief period where peripheral progress had gone wonky (and a continued observing of a discrepancy of totalled spire progress vs the reported peripheral bonus applied to the current outermost Raijin system), I've noticed that some of it appears to just have gone "missing". Going by the linked system/example, it says to be 66% complete, but should be somewhere around 77.4% if going by all spires combined (36%, 16%, 3x5%, 2x4%, plus an extra 2.46% from decimal points across the different ones).

Was that system one of the outermost 10 for the duration of spire activity or were there systems further out and it only became a periphery system at a later point

Did the spires all start to take damage with the latest changes (struggling to remember what the rules were but if one got to say 12% did it reduce to 0% or remain at 12%, and would non-completed affected periphery systems drop by 12%-33%, i.e. if the spire progress remained but periphery was reset this could easily cover the scenario)

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 87, 25th July 3310​

Maelstrom Thor
Spire: Only Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5 remains—barely! All gone!
Control: Empty system clearance is needed most; attacked ports are at HIP 20024, Dhang Tzela, Vaipacnali and HIP 19198.
Titan: Rescued Bio-storage capsules from Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-5 will boost progress for around ~29 Counterstrike systems.
The Control-evicted systems Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-10 and Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-15 are now available for Fleet Carriers very close to the Titan, the latter at 1000 Ls due to asteroids.

Report
Four Alerts repelled at Isla, HIPs 117177 and 40786, and Daisla.
Six Invasions defended at Asletae, Nibelaako, Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11, Picenile, Ixbaksha and Vistnero.
Thirty-nine Control evictions at HR 1737, Col 285 Sectors SM-C b13-1, KB-O c6-2, OC-V d2-80, IA-G b11-3, EA-Q c5-3, EA-Q c5-9, EA-Q c5-7, NG-E b12-1, UH-C b13-3, RM-C b13-1, UH-C b13-0, WT-Q c5-22, RS-H b11-6, SM-C b13-0, KV-F b11-0, OB-E b12-4, TH-C b13-3, EA-Q c5-8, MG-E b12-0, NG-E b12-2, OG-E b12-0, PB-E b12-0, OG-E b12-2, PB-E b12-2 and IG-O c6-9, Vaipacnali, HIPs 19198, 20024 and 21125, Dhang Tzela, Pegasi Sectors BQ-Y d46, KH-V c2-6, LN-S b4-0, GW-W d1-92, HH-U b3-7, JH-V c2-26 and VK-L a9-4, and Hyades Sector FB-N b7-1.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Col 285 Sectors NG-E b12-0 and EA-Q c5-5, and two reactivated at Col 285 Sectors OG-E b12-1 and PB-E b12-3 in return for six Control retreats.
In addition to the defended Invasions, five recaptured systems starting Recovery are HR 1737, Vaipacnali, HIPs 19198 and 20024, and Dhang Tzela.

Targets updated at 06:40 1st August 3310
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2 Control 28% — Thor 18 Ly, 3764 strength
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0 Control 26% *26.5% — Thor 19 Ly, 3797 strength
Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-0 Control 14% *14.7% — Thor 14 Ly, 4567 strength
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2 Control 2% *2.4% — Thor 14 Ly, 5219 strength
Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-2 Control 0% — Thor 14 Ly, 5376 strength
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-9 Control 0% — Thor 13 Ly, 5402 strength
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1 Control 90% — Raijin 28 Ly, 483 strength
Pegasi Sector PJ-N a8-2 Control 88% — Raijin 28 Ly, 580 strength
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14 Control 70% — Thor 18 Ly, 1567 strength
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2 Control 54% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2189 strength
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4 Control 50% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 2340 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-82 Control 42% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 2717 strength
Col 285 Sector TC-J b10-0 Control 42% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 2709 strength
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-5 Control 42% — Cocijo 33 Ly, 2706 strength
HIP 39186 Control 42% — Cocijo 34 Ly, 2684 strength
HIP 39468 Control 42% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2754 strength
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1 Control 40% *41.8% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2757 strength
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1 Control 40% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2854 strength
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6 Control 40% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2849 strength
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 Matrix 38% *39.1% — Raijin 20 Ly
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-5 Control 38% — Raijin 28 Ly, 2994 strength
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3 Control 38% — Thor 18 Ly, 3238 strength
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3 Control 34% *35.4% — Thor 23 Ly, 3252 strength
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-2 Control 34% *34.1% — Thor 20 Ly, 3391 strength
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5 Control 28% *28.6% — Thor 17 Ly, 3738 strength
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96 Control 24% — Thor 22 Ly, 3847 strength
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-18 Matrix 22% *22.9% — Cocijo 11 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3 Matrix 22% *22.3% — Raijin 24 Ly
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2 Control 20% *21.1% — Thor 21 Ly, 4013 strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-9 Matrix 20% *20.9% — Raijin 14 Ly
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-1 Control 18% — Raijin 26 Ly, 4023 strength
HIP 113076 Control 16% *17.4% — Raijin 24 Ly, 9116 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 Matrix 14% *15.4% — Cocijo 16 Ly
HIP 19091 Control 14% — Thor 10 Ly, 10.6k strength
Tagin Control 10% — Raijin 23 Ly, 10k strength
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 Matrix 6% *7% — Cocijo 17 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-7 Matrix 6% *6.9% — Raijin 11 Ly
Chanyaya Control 6% *6.7% — Thor 16 Ly, 11k strength
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-8 Control 6% *6.2% — Thor 9 Ly, 5213 strength
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-4 Matrix 6% — Raijin 7 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-2 Matrix 6% — Raijin 5 Ly
Mapon Control 6% — Cocijo 18 Ly, 10.9k strength
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 6% — Raijin 23 Ly, 10.5k strength
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5 Control 6% — Raijin 24 Ly, 4689 strength
19 Puppis Control 4% *5.9% — Cocijo 27 Ly, 4596 strength
Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-1 Control 4% *5.7% — Thor 8 Ly, 5280 strength
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1 Matrix 4% *5.6% — Cocijo 15 Ly
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4 Matrix 4% *5.1% — Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-3 Control 4% *4.1% — Raijin 26 Ly, 4706 strength
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0 Control 2% *2.8% — Raijin 28 Ly, 4694 strength
Desurinbin Control 2% *2.7% — Cocijo 25 Ly, 10.7k strength
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-11 Control 2% *2.1% — Thor 13 Ly, 5276 strength
Leunii Control 2% — Thor 6 Ly, 12.4k strength
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1 Control 2% — Cocijo 26 Ly, 4802 strength
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4 Control 2% — Cocijo 24 Ly, 4881 strength
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-1 Control 2% — Raijin 28 Ly, 4740 strength
Attada Control 2% — Raijin 28 Ly, 10.5k strength
HIP 116542 Control 2% — Raijin 24 Ly, 4886 strength

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 86, 18th July 3310​

Report
Three Alerts repelled at Tvasu, Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0 and Purukuna.
Seven Invasions defended at Ngolite, Jawul, Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5, Sukurbago, Almar, Koko Oh and Chibis.
Twenty-four Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors JG-O c6-3, LL-E b12-1, IG-O c6-15, IG-O c6-17, EA-Q c5-10, NG-E b12-4, EA-Q c5-4, JA-G b11-3, SM-C b13-3, KA-G b11-0, IG-O c6-18, SM-C b13-2, JG-O c6-5, UH-C b13-1, LV-F b11-0, SW-D b12-2, IG-O c6-10, NG-E b12-3, EA-Q c5-1 and EA-Q c5-2, HIPs 18075, 18776 and 18705, and Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-24.
One Matrix system cleared at Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1.
In addition to the defended Invasions, one recaptured system starting Recovery is HIP 18075.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Let's put it this way, you have a screenshot of the left fold of Thargoid War at your fingertips. At the very beginning of the war, well after a while as all 8 Titans arrived ?
If not, I'll search youtube and other sources. There's a prominent total number of ...

Coloured points show total systems attacked by Thargoids (Alert+Invasion+Control), the grey points slightly below show Control only.
Colour changes correspond to major adjustments to the conflict rules, linear trend lines have been extrapolated forwards (though the downward-pointing ones wouldn't have carried on like that forever).
The purple section on the right is the Taranis-to-Hadad final attacks and the only one where total affected systems were largely flat.

 

[Kira Goto]

Did the spires all start to take damage with the latest changes (struggling to remember what the rules were but if one got to say 12% did it reduce to 0% or remain at 12%, and would non-completed affected periphery systems drop by 12%-33%, i.e. if the spire progress remained but periphery was reset this could easily cover the scenario)

It’s all progress from after the spires were changed to not have any of their progress on systems removed, afaik - or at least, it was practically negligible if any existed prior to that change, below one or two percent.

Having said that, as the more maths (or reading) adept Ian Doncaster pointed out to me on Discord, apparently it’s not a flat 1:1 ratio but 100% on a spire equals 85%(eg 77.4*0.85 gives close to 66 - 65.79). I can certainly see how Frontier’s post can be interpreted that way…

 

[Luriant]

I saw something strange.

Thor have 29 CounterStrike systems.... the closer CS system is: Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5, the most exterio Spire Site.
Previous week I also saw a single Spire in CS, but I didn't take note of the distance.

There is any correlation between CS and spires?
Any pods rescues will damage the Spire, and extend this damage to the peripherial?
Peripherial CS system will take 185% damage from pods, from itself and the 85% from ones affecting the Spire?

 

[Aleks Zuno]

There is any correlation between CS and spires?

There is, yes; from Update 18.06:

Counterstrike system marking has been partially reworked

• The 10 furthest controlled systems from a Titan are now marked as counterstrike, regardless of direction
• The furthest spire system from a Titan is now marked as counterstrike
• The above changes are in addition to the existing counterstrike marking system, which remains in place

Any pods rescues will damage the Spire, and extend this damage to the peripherial?

While it is very difficult to measure the effect of rescued Bio-storage on a Spire site due to all the background progress caused at the site itself:

• Almost certainly those rescues will progress the Spire site—for if not, there would have been no point in Frontier making the above 18.06 change at all.
• Given that Research payloads appear not to cause peripheral progress, I would be less sure about whether Titan rescues do. The common element is that the delivery occurs out-of-system.

Actually I am a bit wary regarding whether anything other than a Spire action actually causes peripheral progress, although at least we have been told that Conflict zones do:

Just as a clarification, any Thargoid war action within a Spire system will result in spread pushback. For example, destroying Interceptors or completing an Anti Xeno Combat Zone.

Perhaps the underlined emphasis there should have extended to the word within—if delivering Titan rescues or Research samples at the Chacocels megaship counts not as being within a Spire system for the purpose of peripheral progress, of course. Apologies that I cannot be sure either way!

 

[Luriant]

• Almost certainly those rescues will progress the Spire site—for if not, there would have been no point in Frontier making the above 18.06 change at all.
• Given that Research payloads appear not to cause peripheral progress, I would be less sure about whether Titan rescues do. The common element is that the delivery occurs out-of-system.

Actually I am a bit wary regarding whether anything other than a Spire action actually causes peripheral progress, although at least we have been told that Conflict zones do:

In that case, Rescue pods will be more useful if no spire with CS (if possible, lets see the next weeks), once the Spires are exhausted or the effect will be minimal (in Thor, not enough remaining systems to make this useful).
With near 200 systems in Cocijo (5 spires) and Raijin (7 spires), we need to find the best opportunity window to avoid the killing Spires under CS.

 

[Grimscrub]

To keep folk in the loop - combat efforts i've set folk my side to focus on Thor and the alerts, Invasions are now cleared.
Invicta moving towards Cocijo temporarily to work on blocking HIP 37520, streamline the defense next week given the system is consistently Last to clear between the outpost and cruise distance - take it out and defense is done sooner, attack can go for longer and all.
Will be working to clear both systems in range, starting with WT-Q.

Target	Strength	Carrier	Buy Order	Parked In	Notes
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22	Prev. Estimate: 4886	[AXI] Invicta X5Q-83N	(FULL)	HIP 37520	400kCr/unit
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6	Prev. Estimate: 4860	[AXI] Invicta X5Q-83N	(FULL)	HIP 37520	400kCr/Unit

-- as we got close to completion, extended the buy order to allow starting on next system.
5k acquired for each, offloaded, systems secured.

 

[SergMx]

Now I've discovered an interesting bug.
1. Flew into the port under attack.
2. While sorting it out, middle of progress, saw the inscription - the system is repulsed.
3. Progress is also going, Thargoids are arriving.
4. Sat in the port, give only repair, no ammo.
5. Flew out, made fusion, ran out of ammo, decided to return to my FC in another system.
6. Flying away I press jump, the indicator fills and all.
7. Tried to simply in the SC fills the indicator and all.
8. Returned to the port, there all Thargoids, the progress bar is there. Sat down, decided to reboot, no reaction to the ESC.
9. Went to the OS, killed the client. Started again.
10. I'm near the port, a bunch of NPCs looking for Thargoids and not even a progress bar.

I realized that this is dynamic change in action

 

[Darrack]

Now I've discovered an interesting bug.
1. Flew into the port under attack.
2. While sorting it out, middle of progress, saw the inscription - the system is repulsed.
3. Progress is also going, Thargoids are arriving.
4. Sat in the port, give only repair, no ammo.
5. Flew out, made fusion, ran out of ammo, decided to return to my FC in another system.
6. Flying away I press jump, the indicator fills and all.
7. Tried to simply in the SC fills the indicator and all.
8. Returned to the port, there all Thargoids, the progress bar is there. Sat down, decided to reboot, no reaction to the ESC.
9. Went to the OS, killed the client. Started again.
10. I'm near the port, a bunch of NPCs looking for Thargoids and not even a progress bar.

I realized that this is dynamic change in action

Which part is the bug?
Asking for an extremely confused friend.

O7

 

[SergMx]

Which part is the bug?
Asking for an extremely confused friend.

O7

I don't quite get it, do I?
1. Why is there no reaction to the ESC button ?
2. Why no replenishment of ammunition in the port ?
3. Why can not turn on the SC ?
4. Why can't you jump to another system ?

I understood it this way, the system was transferred to a new state and I, until I rebooted remained hanging in the old one.

 

[Darrack]

Why is there no reaction to the ESC button ?

Why do you need it?

Why no replenishment of ammunition in the port ?

They are under attack or in the case of the outpost im running missions from probebly out of supplies due to the blockade

Why can not turn on the SC ?

This only happens (to me) if the Thargs jam it, boost, boost, retry

Why can't you jump to another system ?

I really have no idea why you cant

O7

 

[Kira Goto]

I don't quite get it, do I?
1. Why is there no reaction to the ESC button ?
2. Why no replenishment of ammunition in the port ?
3. Why can not turn on the SC ?
4. Why can't you jump to another system ?

I understood it this way, the system was transferred to a new state and I, until I rebooted remained hanging in the old one.

I was present in an invasion that completed as it did, as well, last week, but didn’t encounter any of the issues you describe. Me and another player completed the ongoing conflict zone to the Hydras, then they jumped into another system while I went to supercruise and returned to the station (without logging out), to find no Thargoid spawns and no active CZ, no relog or game restart required. Wouldn’t have checked if I didn’t still have missions to hand in and wanted to do it without two Hydras massacring NPCs.

I was also able to jump into another system just fine.