Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

I was present in an invasion that completed as it did, as well, last week, but didn’t encounter any of the issues you describe. Me and another player completed the ongoing conflict zone to the Hydras, then they jumped into another system while I went to supercruise and returned to the station (without logging out), to find no Thargoid spawns and no active CZ, no relog or game restart required. Wouldn’t have checked if I didn’t still have missions to hand in and wanted to do it without two Hydras massacring NPCs.

I was also able to jump into another system just fine.
I take it the difference is that you completed the zone and I decided to fly off in the middle of completion.
 
Looks like a server communication problem that somehow failed to trigger a ‘colourful snake’ error screen.
I guess you're right, it's not my day.

I'm flying to another system, to a port. I fought there until Medusa appeared and as soon as she had 1 heart left, I got an error - colored snake. Reborn near the port, and the money for Medusa I did not get :( Again after a while appeared Medusa and again as soon as there was 1 heart, then again - colored snake. I got frustrated, all progress again at 0, and returned to my FC :(

But for these flights I got 400 arx..... But it's a shame to lose Medusa's progress on the last heart.
 
M. Thor now has no more Spire sites!

Without anything changing in response to that I imagine some Commanders will prefer seeking Spire sites elsewhere, meanwhile arrival at the Titan relies upon those willing to complete space Conflict zones in the many empty Control systems remaining. This seems also more tricky than some weeks ago—I have seen consistent stronger Interceptors, even in Low intensity! It is very often a Medusa, and occasionally Basilisks which need leading away from the system forces and destroying one by one.

We had a slower start this week, although in the meantime a Titan trainee from T. Indra can now also run Conflict zones, and a new apprentice is now Titan-ready with practice at T. Thor¹. We did help along one system via Conflict zones and complete two others via Research earlier, and should be available for securing systems which appear to have progress beyond the Spire amount. Col 285 Sector RM-C b13-1 is an excellent example of that, albeit non-specific given that it may be complete before the evening!

1. The graduation path is a bit backwards, but the reality is that the Titans are the activity which attracts the initial interest!
 
Without anything changing in response to that I imagine some Commanders will prefer seeking Spire sites elsewhere
Since meanwhile Raijin's outer ten systems are basically at maximum spire progress already, moving to Cocijo would probably be more productive in the short term, I think?
 
Since meanwhile Raijin's outer ten systems are basically at maximum spire progress already, moving to Cocijo would probably be more productive in the short term, I think?

That is an interesting question about which the update 18.06 was not quite clear! We had:

Spread pushback targeting is now dynamic
For example, if any of the furthest 10 systems hit 100%, the titan will now start to affect the 11th system, then the 12th, and so on - without waiting for the Thursday turn
Spread pushback is now treated as an 85% pushback allocation per system

As worded, that does not quite imply that reaching a full periphery with said 85% would then affect systems 11–20, although given the following I presume probably it does:

Additionally, we have a clarification to this point from the 18.06 update notes:
Fully taking a spire system will always result in spread pushback to the equivalent of 85% of 10 systems
This means that no matter which activity is undertaken within a spire system, by the time the spire system has hit 100%, spread pushback to the equivalent of 85% of 10 systems will have occurred

If so, progressing more Spire sites at M. Raijin or moving to the closer M. Cocijo ought to be reasonably equivalent. Ideally we would have not so many systems congesting the Thargoid War Information top five at the Galaxy map, although to an extent that is also a self-solving problem!
 
M. Thor now has no more Spire sites!

Without anything changing in response to that I imagine some Commanders will prefer seeking Spire sites elsewhere, meanwhile arrival at the Titan relies upon those willing to complete space Conflict zones in the many empty Control systems remaining. This seems also more tricky than some weeks ago—I have seen consistent stronger Interceptors, even in Low intensity! It is very often a Medusa, and occasionally Basilisks which need leading away from the system forces and destroying one by one.

We had a slower start this week, although in the meantime a Titan trainee from T. Indra can now also run Conflict zones, and a new apprentice is now Titan-ready with practice at T. Thor¹. We did help along one system via Conflict zones and complete two others via Research earlier, and should be available for securing systems which appear to have progress beyond the Spire amount. Col 285 Sector RM-C b13-1 is an excellent example of that, albeit non-specific given that it may be complete before the evening!

1. The graduation path is a bit backwards, but the reality is that the Titans are the activity which attracts the initial interest!
The Spires at Col 285 Sector NG-E B12-0 and Col 285 Sector EA-Q C5-5 themselves will remain active till Thursday so a few days to stock up on Contaminated Compounds.
What we do after Thursday remains to be decided.
 
What do you think: which Titan will we bomb next? Thor ?
Probably Raijin (after Thor, if the question was just ‘bombing directly’, not general attack phase on the control sphere), if only by virtue of having a slightly lesser control count than Cocijo (but not enough to make a particularly significant difference to clearance time, even with the current periphery progress and, hopefully, clearance of those weakened systems in the next week or two).

One of them will still be around by September unless something changes drastically about the war. At current (relatively) average rates I’m not sure either of the last two would be gone by the end of September, even.
 
One of them will still be around by September unless something changes drastically about the war. At current (relatively) average rates I’m not sure either of the last two would be gone by the end of September, even.
It seems very unlikely. The current clearance rate is (optimistically) about 25 controls per week and that's been with spire assistance and includes clearance elsewhere. So that would put Thor as vulnerable at the earliest 15 August, leaving the attack on the next one to start 22 August (with 22/29 also a possibility). Then the other two have just under 200 each, so would take at least eight further weeks to wear down, placing the next one (probably Raijin) in late October, and the final one maybe just after the new year.

If the rate is more like 20 controls per week - closer to the long term average since Hadad went down - then that means Thor is definitely 22-29, and it takes ten weeks to wear down the other two, so Raijin is mid-November and Cocijo is the end of January.
 
We have a mechanic that affect multiple systems, is Pod rescue. At best, some do 100-150 per trip, and Empty Control systems have reduced resistance. Multiply strenght by 7, and thats how many pods we need. Once the easier ones are conquered, we could fight the rest, and also the Populated Control Zones around 45% progress.
 
Getting that many pods in a week is not the most practical or straightforward thing compared to spire assaults or sampling, especially with the heightened Thargoid aggression around the Titans. I am guessing the ~20-24% progress achieved on some of the unpopulated controls not affected by the spires until they ran out is from said pod recovery, so I don’t think it is all that great or effective, compared to just direct action via fighting. Not to mention different interests for different people, someone that enjoys shooting Orthrus will not necessarily be so inclined to go rescue pods from around a Titan.

If the rate is more like 20 controls per week - closer to the long term average since Hadad went down - then that means Thor is definitely 22-29, and it takes ten weeks to wear down the other two, so Raijin is mid-November and Cocijo is the end of January.
Well, I guess if they still need to delay the Powerplay rework for a particular reason, I guess they won’t need to worry too much about what to keep the gap filled with (except postponing Winters’ inauguration even though I’m not sure anybody really understands why it couldn’t have happened before said rework)… but let’s hope they won’t.

Kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop here anyway, since it was fairly clearly hinted at that this current Thargoid operating mode isn’t the last thing they’ll do… of course, it’s anyone’s guess what they actually will end up doing at Frontier’s hands. Or when. If they were planning to wait for Thor to become vulnerable, I hope they changed their minds about it.
 
My turn for a late completion report, sleep pattern is currently a little all over and the summer heat's not helping, so, figured it would be good to push it over the line and not let the effort get wasted, even if not terribly important (or around Thor, for that matter).
Elite - Dangerous (CLIENT) 01.08.2024 04_17_21_2.png
 
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My turn for a late completion report, sleep pattern is currently a little all over and the summer heat's not helping, so, figured it would be good to push it over the line and not let the effort get wasted, even if not terribly important (or around Thor, for that matter).

Well done! Those M. Raijin systems have 85% Spire progress which no longer gets reinforced away, so not much would be lost, although it is great to get some of those done and out of the top five Control in the Thargoid War Information. Now that we have the new notion of the Galaxy map deciding where is the focus, I think it should tell us the top five around each Titan instead!

We do a full check just before the week closes, so completions have to be final-hour to be missed by that and get caught instead by the system totals check when the next week begins—although definitely it is worth eyeing Pegasi Sectors LY-O a7-1 and PJ-N a8-2 first if that happens! The previous time was at the end of week 81 with HIP 20480 getting its last 4% within the hour.
 
Just a half-hour after noting the rarity of final-hour completions, we seem to have four at once around M. Thor! Col 285 Sectors PB-E b12-0, OG-E b12-2, NG-E b12-2 and OG-E b12-0 all disappeared from having 2–27% prior. Do we know what happened, or has the lack of Spire sites started causing spontaneous retreats?
 

Week 88, 1st August 3310​

Maelstrom Thor
Spire: Col 285 Sectors OG-E b12-1 and PB-E b12-3 have been reactivated using forces taken from six Control systems.
Control: Empty system clearance is needed more; attacked ports are at Chanyaya and HIP 19894.
Titan: Rescued Bio-storage capsules from Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-5 will boost progress for around ~16 Counterstrike systems.

Report
Four Alerts repelled at Aurus, Bormuninus, Wogaiawong and HIP 38134.
Six Invasions defended at Nu Guang, Holvandalla, Balak, Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3, Na Zha and Laumas.
Thirty-two Control evictions at Pegasi Sectors LY-O a7-1, PJ-N a8-2 and IH-U b3-1, Chanyaya, Col 285 Sectors KB-O c6-3, IG-O c6-14, UH-C b13-2, QB-E b12-2, OC-V d2-96, JA-G b11-1, MG-E b12-2, JA-G b11-0, EA-Q c5-6, OC-V d2-79, PB-E b12-1, NG-E b12-5, OB-E b12-3, RW-D b12-3, OC-V d2-58, LV-F b11-1, QB-E b12-0, MG-E b12-1, OB-E b12-2, LV-F b11-3, QB-E b12-1, IG-O c6-11, JA-G b11-2, IG-O c6-8 and OB-E b12-1, and HIPs 19894, 19600 and 19046.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Col 285 Sectors PB-E b12-3 and OG-E b12-1.
In addition to the defended Invasions, two recaptured systems starting Recovery are Chanyaya and HIP 19894.

Targets updated at 06:40 8th August 3310
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-5 Control 82% — Raijin 28 Ly, 870 strength
Rajuarpai Control 80% *81.2%Thor 11 Ly, 2290 strength
Kamato Control 60% *60.9%Raijin 27 Ly, 4222 strength
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1 Control 60% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 1898 strength
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2 Control 54% *54.4%Cocijo 30 Ly, 2167 strength
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4 Control 50% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 2340 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-82 Control 50% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 2342 strength
Col 285 Sector TC-J b10-0 Control 50% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 2335 strength
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-5 Control 50% — Cocijo 33 Ly, 2332 strength
HIP 39186 Control 50% — Cocijo 34 Ly, 2313 strength
HIP 39468 Control 50% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2374 strength
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1 Control 48% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2474 strength
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6 Control 48% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 2469 strength
HIP 19091 Control 46% — Thor 10 Ly, 6675 strength
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 Matrix 44% — Raijin 20 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3 Matrix 34% *35.1%Raijin 24 Ly
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-1 Control 26% — Raijin 28 Ly, 3579 strength
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-18 Matrix 24% — Cocijo 11 Ly
Attada Control 24% — Raijin 28 Ly, 8137 strength
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-0 Control 24% — Raijin 28 Ly, 3673 strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-9 Matrix 22% *22.5%Raijin 14 Ly
Pegasi Sector XQ-J a10-1 Control 22% — Raijin 28 Ly, 3776 strength
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-2 Control 22% — Raijin 28 Ly, 3777 strength
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1 Control 22% — Raijin 28 Ly, 3778 strength
HR 8536 Control 22% — Raijin 28 Ly, 3780 strength
Hosan Control 22% — Raijin 28 Ly, 8361 strength
Gluschen Control 20% *21.2%Thor 8 Ly, 9859 strength
Leunii Control 20% *20.3%Thor 6 Ly, 10.1k strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 Matrix 18% *18.9%Cocijo 16 Ly
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0 Control 16% — Raijin 28 Ly, 4073 strength
19 Puppis Control 12% — Cocijo 27 Ly, 4302 strength
HIP 113076 Control 10% — Raijin 24 Ly, 9934 strength
Tagin Control 10% — Raijin 23 Ly, 10k strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-7 Matrix 8% *8.7%Raijin 11 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 Matrix 8% — Cocijo 17 Ly
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4 Matrix 8% — Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-2 Matrix 6% *6.6%Raijin 5 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-4 Matrix 6% *6.6%Raijin 7 Ly
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1 Matrix 6% — Cocijo 15 Ly
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4 Control 6% — Cocijo 29 Ly, 4516 strength
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72 Control 6% — Cocijo 28 Ly, 4540 strength
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-3 Control 6% — Raijin 22 Ly, 4748 strength
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 4% — Raijin 23 Ly, 10.7k strength
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110 Control 4% — Raijin 25 Ly, 4766 strength
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23 Control 2% *2.6%Cocijo 30 Ly, 4636 strength
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1 Control 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 4934 strength
HIP 116542 Control 2% — Raijin 24 Ly, 4886 strength
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19 Control 2% — Cocijo 26 Ly, 4815 strength
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4 Control 2% — Cocijo 29 Ly, 4694 strength

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 87, 25th July 3310​

Report
Four Alerts repelled at Isla, HIPs 117177 and 40786, and Daisla.
Six Invasions defended at Asletae, Nibelaako, Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11, Picenile, Ixbaksha and Vistnero.
Thirty-nine Control evictions at HR 1737, Col 285 Sectors SM-C b13-1, KB-O c6-2, OC-V d2-80, IA-G b11-3, EA-Q c5-3, EA-Q c5-9, EA-Q c5-7, NG-E b12-1, UH-C b13-3, RM-C b13-1, UH-C b13-0, WT-Q c5-22, RS-H b11-6, SM-C b13-0, KV-F b11-0, OB-E b12-4, TH-C b13-3, EA-Q c5-8, MG-E b12-0, NG-E b12-2, OG-E b12-0, PB-E b12-0, OG-E b12-2, PB-E b12-2 and IG-O c6-9, Vaipacnali, HIPs 19198, 20024 and 21125, Dhang Tzela, Pegasi Sectors BQ-Y d46, KH-V c2-6, LN-S b4-0, GW-W d1-92, HH-U b3-7, JH-V c2-26 and VK-L a9-4, and Hyades Sector FB-N b7-1.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Col 285 Sectors NG-E b12-0 and EA-Q c5-5, and two reactivated at Col 285 Sectors OG-E b12-1 and PB-E b12-3 in return for six Control retreats.
In addition to the defended Invasions, five recaptured systems starting Recovery are HR 1737, Vaipacnali, HIPs 19198 and 20024, and Dhang Tzela.
 
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Spire system Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 seems to have been reactivated. On the other hand five controls disappeared:
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2
Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-0
Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-2
 
Spire system Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 seems to have been reactivated. On the other hand five controls disappeared:

Thank you; that explains much! If the Thargoids cannot operate without a Spire site and will spend five Control systems to take one back, then in the context of M. Cocijo and M. Raijin I presume a good idea could be to deplete their Spire sites sooner rather than later, that the five-system payment starts occurring.

Additional: Even at the expense of reaching T. Thor sooner, that is! Either is fine; my point is that it is a completely reasonable, logical response to pause at M. Thor, reduce all Titans to one Spire site each, then divide or rotate clearance.
 
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Now that we have the new notion of the Galaxy map deciding where is the focus, I think it should tell us the top five around each Titan instead!
Probably is not a terrible idea, since the information that there is some progress being made around Raijin isn’t technically wrong, but also of limited value when considering that Thor is the primary target of the player base and referring to its systems would have more overall use.

… and yes, it wouldn’t have been a lot of progress lost, but I saw people put in the effort and it wouldn’t take much more to tip it over so I went off to do it. Will probably also continue to poke those other high progress controls left, to get them moved out of the way.

Recapturing the spire immediately at the cost of 5 control systems doesn’t really seem very strategically sensible on behalf of the Thargoids, when they quite deliberately stopped reinforcing them, will lose a lot more systems thanks to that, and nothing we’ve seen even indicates they have a significant positive impact on their campaign… instead they are only a tool with which to significantly hamper Thargoid activity. Depending on the clearance and if another spire recapture happens under similar circumstances, this might put Thor barely on the line of vulnerability for next week.

Feels a lot more like a cheesy Frontier godhand which they pulled out of their backsides and put a dent on Thor’s other controls to make it seem less intrusive, rather than any actual “need” for the Thargoids to have an active pire site. Taranis spent a good month or three without one and was hardly affected by it. Or not in an obvious way to players, at least …
 
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