Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

According to the Imperial Navy mathematics department, Nu Guang has had 14 attacks stopped at Alert, 7 original Invasions and 3 of the newer immediate Invasions. As the next capture attempt goes, 25th would be exactly correct!
The most-attacked targets at each maelstrom so far have been:

Taranis: Ebisu = 12
Leigong: Pathamon = 10
Indra: HIP 20485 = 19
Oya: Gliese 9035 = 17
Cocijo: Asletae = 11
Thor: tie between Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-4 and Unktety = 11
Raijin: Nu Guang = 24
Hadad: Vogulu = 15

HIP 20485 and Gliese 9035 were running Nu Guang very close up until their Titans got destroyed (with HIP 20485 actually ahead for quite a while). With those now out of the running, Raijin also has the second-most-targeted (Holvandalla, 22 and currently expected to get its 23rd tomorrow)
 
Which is odd as they used to send you an invitation to come and be interviewed.
You think it was one of those, "We'd like to invite you for an interview. Now. The guards are here for your ... protection" invitations?

I'd expect that would be unexpected.
 
HIP 20485 and Gliese 9035 were running Nu Guang very close up until their Titans got destroyed (with HIP 20485 actually ahead for quite a while).
I admit I kind of miss HIP 20485; it was such a reliable and convenient system to farm on-foot materials via AX Reactivation missions every few weeks 😁
(convenient because the Invasions there pretty much never got to the point where Shinn Enterprise was attacked, so it was fully online during the Recovery, with bartender and stuff)
 
I admit I kind of miss HIP 20485; it was such a reliable and convenient system to farm on-foot materials via AX Reactivation missions every few weeks 😁
(convenient because the Invasions there pretty much never got to the point where Shinn Enterprise was attacked, so it was fully online during the Recovery, with bartender and stuff)

Indeed while forming the original hundred-system purge plan for M. Indra several weeks before destroying T. Hadad, the original idea was to allow some Thargoid expansion first then take it down to 42–43 systems all at once and use the following Alert-free month to take exactly one periphery weekly, noting that the final Spire was system 12 from the Titan. That would have included HIP 20485 though, and the good @Phill P pointed out that HIP 20485 was the first ever Alert to be repelled, so it would be impossible to prevent Commanders from leaving that legacy alone for Thargoids to take.

Thinking about it, that first Alert victory in HIP 20485 was overshadowed a bit by the same week also yielding the first Invasion defence at Wakata Station in HIP 23716; see Week 3 for the Week 2 summary at the end. Neither system has ever fallen to Control!
 
I admit I kind of miss HIP 20485
Me too, but for other reasons. I used to call this system Indra's Gate, because of the small station distances and the fact that it was perfectly positioned to resupply my small tank Clipper in all operations at Indra (I was at Indra for the entire war before it went down - Stillman in Concordia still has all my assets). Basically all my flight plans went through there.

How cool would it be for this game to have some renaming mechanic, so that players could collectively choose names for systems or planets based on their experiences in major game events - like the Thargoid war...?
 
Indeed while forming the original hundred-system purge plan for M. Indra several weeks before destroying T. Hadad, the original idea was to allow some Thargoid expansion first then take it down to 42–43 systems all at once and use the following Alert-free month to take exactly one periphery weekly, noting that the final Spire was system 12 from the Titan. That would have included HIP 20485 though, and the good @Phill P pointed out that HIP 20485 was the first ever Alert to be repelled, so it would be impossible to prevent Commanders from leaving that legacy alone for Thargoids to take.
Yes, that was never going to happen.
Thinking about it, that first Alert victory in HIP 20485 was overshadowed a bit by the same week also yielding the first Invasion defence at Wakata Station in HIP 23716; see Week 3 for the Week 2 summary at the end. Neither system has ever fallen to Control!
Both systems were a point of pride for the players and defended to the hilt ever since. You never forget your first.
 
Okay! That final T. Raijin Spire site around the back at Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4 took a bit of a push, now complete and likely to cause more Thargoid retreats to reoccupy more Spires. Previously at T. Thor the Thargoids withdrew from six empty Control systems in return for reactivating two Spire sites, and it should be fair to expect a similar trade at T. Raijin given that Spire compounds presumably are still an important, must-have supply item for them.

Aegis seems to think there will be a Thargoid attack; if denying resources affects that at all, presumably it would have to come from T. Cocijo, unless swapping systems to get Spires back will suffice. The last major Thargoid attack was a rush of 30 Alert systems at large ranges around T. Oya, but it could be as well to look out for Invasions at important locations such as Deciat, or perhaps something beyond the bubble.
 
if denying resources affects that at all, presumably it would have to come from T. Cocijo, unless swapping systems to get Spires back will suffice.
I’m reasonably sure the Thargoids do not only use the spires for resources, given how a Titan will retain resistance to damage (at least in the short term/for a week) even without active spire sites, so Raijin would likely still be in a position to launch attacks even without spires.

But if those attacks pop up in certain locations throughout the Bubble and are not tied to a Titan via the UI, figuring out which one they came from would likely be more difficult.

Rescue ship locations may also be a potential target, however unlikely an assault against them would be to succeed. (The four that actually seem to matter for evacuation missions, anyway, but the others would likely also see themselves defended.) I guess we will see in the morning what, if anything happens… not sure I believe Frontier to kick this off on this Thursday, unless it is supposed to coincide with the final Raijin spire going down (a first time around, anyway).
 
I’m reasonably sure the Thargoids do not only use the spires for resources, given how a Titan will retain resistance to damage (at least in the short term/for a week) even without active spire sites, so Raijin would likely still be in a position to launch attacks even without spires.

But if those attacks pop up in certain locations throughout the Bubble and are not tied to a Titan via the UI, figuring out which one they came from would likely be more difficult.

Rescue ship locations may also be a potential target, however unlikely an assault against them would be to succeed. (The four that actually seem to matter for evacuation missions, anyway, but the others would likely also see themselves defended.) I guess we will see in the morning what, if anything happens… not sure I believe Frontier to kick this off on this Thursday, unless it is supposed to coincide with the final Raijin spire going down (a first time around, anyway).
The article specifies military targets which you could interpret rescue ships as being, but would they be anyone's first pick? Can't rule it out but there must be more prominent military installations that would be more likely.

Ironic that as far as military targets go the AX Reactivations that have now vanished without explanation were all to military settlements.

The other thing I'm wondering is if these are hand placed attacks, isn't that what the war machine was designed to get away from having to do?
 

Week 94, 12th September 3310​

Maelstrom Raijin
Control: Reactivated ports are at Sugalis, HIP 116351, Chnemine, Humarala, Iceniguari and Snoqui.
Spire: All gone—the only remaining Spire sites are at M. Cocijo.

Report
Two Alerts repelled at HIPs 113076 and 40786.
Six Invasions defended at Holvandalla, Nu Guang, Laumas, Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3, Balak and Wogaiawong.
Twenty Control evictions at Pegasi Sectors VK-L a9-0, QE-N a8-5, JH-U b3-8, JH-U b3-9, JH-U b3-1, OI-S b4-4, EB-W b2-2, IH-U b3-2, ZQ-J a10-1, ZQ-J a10-0, KC-U b3-2 and UK-L a9-3, HIP 116351, Col 285 Sectors VD-G b12-5, PM-J b10-3, YT-F b12-5, OS-T d3-76, PS-T d3-152, YT-Q c5-25 and RS-H b11-4, and Chnemine.
In addition to the defended Invasions, two recaptured systems starting Recovery are HIP 116351 and Chnemine.

Targets updated at 06:30 19th September 3310
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4 Control 98% *98.5%Cocijo 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3 Control 92% *93.8%Cocijo 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 Matrix 88% — Cocijo 16 Ly
Sugalis Control 64% *65.3%Raijin 23 Ly
Humarala Control 58% *59.3%Raijin 18 Ly
HIP 117229 Control 48% *48.9%Raijin 23 Ly
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2 Control 44% — Raijin 23 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-0 Control 42% — Raijin 23 Ly
Iceniguari Control 36% *36.9%Raijin 23 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10 Control 32% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1 Matrix 28% *28.9%Cocijo 15 Ly
Snoqui Control 28% *28.9%Raijin 12 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2 Control 28% — Raijin 23 Ly
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4 Control 24% — Cocijo 29 Ly
19 Puppis Control 24% — Cocijo 27 Ly
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5 Control 20% — Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5 Control 18% *18.8%Raijin 16 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 Matrix 18% *18.4%Cocijo 17 Ly
Paitra Control 18% — Cocijo 25 Ly
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4 Control 16% — Cocijo 29 Ly
HIP 37844 Control 16% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-6 Control 16% — Raijin 10 Ly
Njana Control 14% — Cocijo 26 Ly
HR 3048 Control 10% *10.6%Cocijo 25 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10 Control 10% *10.1%Raijin 16 Ly
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0 Control 10% — Raijin 22 Ly
HIP 40229 Control 10% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1 Control 8% *9.2%Raijin 23 Ly
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3 Control 8% — Raijin 22 Ly
HIP 39409 Control 8% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102 Control 6% *7.6%Cocijo 26 Ly
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 Control 6% — Raijin 18 Ly
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22 Control 4% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-6 Control 2% *3.2%Raijin 13 Ly
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5 Control 2% *3.2%Raijin 21 Ly
HIP 113660 Control 2% *2.8%Raijin 8 Ly
Ongkarango Control 2% *2.7%Raijin 10 Ly
Mapon Control 2% *2.2%Cocijo 18 Ly
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-6 Control 2% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7 Control 2% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13 Control 2% — Raijin 18 Ly

Notes
Rescue Ship Cornwallis at Mac Cimi will jump to V886 Centauri next week.
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 93, 5th September 3310​

Report
Two Alerts repelled at HIP 117177 and Daisla.
Six Invasions defended at Vistnero, Nibelaako, Ixbaksha, Asletae, Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11 and Picenile.
Sixteen Control evictions at Pegasi Sectors TK-L a9-5, FW-W d1-110, TK-L a9-0, HH-U b3-4, LC-U b3-3, DG-X c1-5, YQ-J a10-0 and BQ-Y d93, Gl 886.1 B, Col 285 Sectors VY-Q c5-23 and ZE-P c6-18, Kaurukat, HIP 112823, Hyades Sector FB-N b7-0, Alads and Chinas.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-18 and Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4.
In addition to the defended Invasions, four recaptured systems starting Recovery are Kaurukat, HIP 112823, Alads and Chinas.
 
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The article specifies military targets which you could interpret rescue ships as being, but would they be anyone's first pick? Can't rule it out but there must be more prominent military installations that would be more likely.
Well, maybe I’m just looking at it from the wrong perspective but those rescue ships would be a valid target for a military operation. Arguably, the fact that they offer up modules which are vital to the Titan assaults, not least of which the torpedo launcher, could be seen as a reason.

Would maybe expect Thargoids to go and target production sites of nanite torpedoes, and/or wherever they’re being stored. Under the assumption they even realize where those are, and Frontier seem to be inconsistent in whether large quantities of Guardian tech will draw Thargoid attacks (it certainly didn’t when there was boatloads getting dumped in Meene… I think it was there, back in February).

… though taking the article at face value it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think military infrastructure specifically. (Tanner’s speech, or the exerpts which are quoted, are… not even as specific as that and it’s only the non-quoted text which outright says military targets.)

The other thing I'm wondering is if these are hand placed attacks, isn't that what the war machine was designed to get away from having to do?
You do remember correctly. Not sure I have a lot to say. Maybe they could just I don’t know, put something in place that randomly targets military systems. I’d be surprised if we got a wave of like, mini-Titans which act as a point from which the Thargoids launch assaults, if the presence of a central point is required for the system to function.

That aside, barring developments later on in the day, seems like the Thor spire reactivation was (possibly) just a god-handed one off in the end. One that we probably won’t find out what it was about for a few more months again. If ever.

And, apparently, there is no downside to populated counterstrikes with an active port failing to clear in a week? Looks to be that way… aside from the usual loss of progress, of course.
 
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"potential for targeted Thargoid assaults on key military locations." is tricky taken at face value because we're not really shown what they are in-game. Could be an attack on all 11 Powerplay HQs to explain any transitional arrangements being applied there in a month, perhaps?

In the meantime the attack on Raijin is actually starting to disconnect things a bit
Raijin-edges.png
The Marindhs-Mora pair - of course, quite a strong pair! - is the only thing keeping it in a single cluster for now (discounting the loose KC-U b3-2) and there's a whole spur out from Brigua round to Chnemine which is poorly connected. A surprising amount of its attack potential is now depending on a relatively small number of uninhabited systems, too, which is a big change from the well-connected state it was in a month ago and a slightly surprising consequence of what's been a mostly radial attack.
 
Okay! That final T. Raijin Spire site around the back at Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4 took a bit of a push, now complete and likely to cause more Thargoid retreats to reoccupy more Spires. Previously at T. Thor the Thargoids withdrew from six empty Control systems in return for reactivating two Spire sites, and it should be fair to expect a similar trade at T. Raijin given that Spire compounds presumably are still an important, must-have supply item for them.

Aegis seems to think there will be a Thargoid attack; if denying resources affects that at all, presumably it would have to come from T. Cocijo, unless swapping systems to get Spires back will suffice. The last major Thargoid attack was a rush of 30 Alert systems at large ranges around T. Oya, but it could be as well to look out for Invasions at important locations such as Deciat, or perhaps something beyond the bubble.
OR super surprise, more carriers (uh titans) show up.
Though the expectation is some strikes deeper into hummie space.
 
"potential for targeted Thargoid assaults on key military locations." is tricky taken at face value because we're not really shown what they are in-game. Could be an attack on all 11 Powerplay HQs to explain any transitional arrangements being applied there in a month, perhaps?

In the meantime the attack on Raijin is actually starting to disconnect things a bit
The Marindhs-Mora pair - of course, quite a strong pair! - is the only thing keeping it in a single cluster for now (discounting the loose KC-U b3-2) and there's a whole spur out from Brigua round to Chnemine which is poorly connected. A surprising amount of its attack potential is now depending on a relatively small number of uninhabited systems, too, which is a big change from the well-connected state it was in a month ago and a slightly surprising consequence of what's been a mostly radial attack.
Are the core systems of Raijin feasible without spires?
 
Are the core systems of Raijin feasible without spires?

In that context, Mora and Marindhs would be completed very much better with a reactivated port under attack—although if the goal is to bisect the Thargoid space swiftly, it would be Research wings to HIP 113695 and Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-5, given that Thargoids are not attacking empty systems at present and that the strength of those empty systems should be much lower despite the former being within 5 Ly.

More generally, any single empty Control system can be removed if necessary! With present strengths, a Research session is not something I can ask just for general clearance because the expectation is that the Thargoids will need to trade eventually when they exhaust the Spire snacks fridge on T. Raijin, but there could be a case if there is a specific goal.
 
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