Winter 2023 DLC Speculation

K tomorrow is the first day we could expect the update.

What is everyone’s locked in guess for what the animal is? After you respond you can’t change your answer. Think carefully.
I'm gonna go ahead and guess North American black bear. It's simple, pretty common, and people want it... But might be a tricky sell to folks as part of a DLC. It also wouldn't conflict with any of the heavily predicted/feeling kinda likely DLCs.

Those are my two "feels likely" guesses. My "it's not happening and deviates from my own personal theories, including anniversary animal patterns and the value of animals high up in the meta wishlist to DLC packs, but just let me cope please" pick is the tree kangaroo. Theory being it was originally planned to be the quokka slot in the Oceania DLC but they needed a bit more work on it so they swapped it out because the quokka was easier. But not wanting to abandon the glorious tree kangaroo they just touched up the finishing bits for the anniversary update. /cope
 
I'm gonna go ahead and guess North American black bear. It's simple, pretty common, and people want it... But might be a tricky sell to folks as part of a DLC. It also wouldn't conflict with any of the heavily predicted/feeling kinda likely DLCs.
I can’t see the black bear cause of all the colour variations. I see it like Dromedary Camel and Red Fox where it actually is profitable off of its colour variations. The spectacled bear even though I don’t think it’s gonna be it either, has a better chance because it’s one solid colour coat.

So in short, I think we won’t get a bear as the anniversary because:
ABB = Too many colour variants
Spectacled Bear = Profitable for a DLC
 
I can’t see the black bear cause of all the colour variations. I see it like Dromedary Camel and Red Fox where it actually is profitable off of its colour variations. The spectacled bear even though I don’t think it’s gonna be it either, has a better chance because it’s one solid colour coat.

So in short, I think we won’t get a bear as the anniversary because:
ABB = Too many colour variants
Spectacled Bear = Profitable for a DLC
My thoughts exactly. I also think that Frontier probably wouldn't give us two bears back to back assuming the spectacled is coming in December.
 
I can’t see the black bear cause of all the colour variations. I see it like Dromedary Camel and Red Fox where it actually is profitable off of its colour variations. The spectacled bear even though I don’t think it’s gonna be it either, has a better chance because it’s one solid colour coat.

So in short, I think we won’t get a bear as the anniversary because:
ABB = Too many colour variants
Spectacled Bear = Profitable for a DLC
Yeah, the reason I went with the ABB was because the spectacled bear would do really well for a DLC. Though you do raise a great point about the color variations for the ABB; that would change the community perspective in a major way, I think.

Then again, I'm also of the mindset that if it doesn't come as an anniversary animal then it won't be coming at all. I just don't see the ABB fitting into any of the ones that feel likely based on the other animals high up on the wishlist, etc. Curveballs are gonna curveball, of course, but that's where my head is at right now. Subject to change as more info trickles out! Haha.
 
Woodlands, Temperate and Arboreal could take the black bear in. The black bear is also a good headliner animal, they must’ve kept it from the NA animal pack for a reason.
Oh, it for sure would fit any of those as a theme. But I'm of the mindset now that I don't really see any of those packs as likely unless we get a signal that support will continue throughout all of 2024. This is based on nothing but my "gut" so... I'm probably (and hopefully) very wrong. Hah. Because an arboreal animal pack would be tasty!

But this is also me being "forum-brained" into thinking we'll be getting Highlands and a Latin America pack as certainties. Just watch - we'll all be fully wrong and the December pack will be Woodlands rather than Highlands/Mountains!
 
Low-key watching the SteamDB knowing something's coming. Haha. I'm not anticipating a livestream this time around but... Between what we saw in the folders, standard patterns, and the steam action? I'm not sure how anybody could come to any other conclusion. Hah.

At any rate, I'm curious to see the impact (if anything) the anniversary animal and update has on speculation.
I think it's possible it may lead to some guesses as to what the Winter pack will not be. If only by removing what might be seen as "no brainer" inclusions in a pack theme.
Examples - Wild Boar for Anniversary -pack is probably not something Europe/Eurasian Spectacled Bear or Markhor for Anniversary- pack is probably not Highlands or Alpine.
 
I think it's possible it may lead to some guesses as to what the Winter pack will not be. If only by removing what might be seen as "no brainer" inclusions in a pack theme.
Examples - Wild Boar for Anniversary -pack is probably not something Europe/Eurasian Spectacled Bear or Markhor for Anniversary- pack is probably not Highlands or Alpine.
Yeah, it's more of an indicator of what it won't be more than anything. For me, I'm thinking it will be something to fill a gap in a prior pack or that they want in the game's roster for posterity but can't fit into a planned pack.
 
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