So the 8,000 estimate seems like it may be in the ballpark.
No - the real number will be larger than 8000.
The deferred income is, to keep it fairly simple under accounting rules, the amount of money that FD have kept aside in case they have to issue a refund to LEP buyers for non delivery. It is money that they have not yet counted as true sales revenue.
Therefore it is not the total value of all LEP sold. It is the amount at risk if they fail to deliver any more paid content.
They already delivered one paid expansion to all LEP buyers from the first release period (original ED game). They didn’t deliver any further expansion to anyone who bought the LEP during the Horizons sale period, but presumably they would still only have to refund the difference between the full price Horizons game at that time, and the LEP.
Point being, you can’t just divide $1m by the LEP price to get the number of LEP owners.
If I remember correctly, there are some notes in one of their previous financial reports about how they are calculating deferred income on LEPs, but I don’t have time to go searching for it right now. It could be that they are releasing LEP money to the P&L purely based on passing of time, but this might be risky given that they are now almost 2 years since they released any LEP eligible paid content.
Anyway, previous FD posts here indicate that they will release further paid content in 2018 other than the “Beyond” updates.