The fact is though there are ways to both have people involved and still be losing ground that will NATURALLY appeal to most people and cause them to remain engaged and enthusiastic.
Absolutely! The easy win is just increase the rate at which thargoids expand their territory, but allow player progress to carry over. This can be tuned until we end up with a state where players are able to draw lines in the sand around a few chosen systems, but are unable to entirely prevent the thargoid advance - if that's what FDev want to happen.
How the war goes should be determined mostly by player actions over a period of time.
I don't think it's unreasonable for FDev to be painting broad strokes of history - e.g. that the thargoids advance for <an amount of time>, <some events happen> and there is <a resolution> some time late next year. Players are, of course, not the only "people" in the canon galaxy, there's millions of military and militia personnel involved, and it's not absurd to say that we the commanders don't have
that much power to affect the pace of things.
But the fine details should be ours for gameplay reasons. Maybe the thargoids try to capture systems towards Sol - and players band together and absolutely refuse to let them get close, sacrificing more distant areas of the bubble. That is an outcome FDev need to accept and not force their own vision. But they can tune it so that a major defensive simply isn't viable in multiple regions. If we keep Sol, we lose Achenar and Cubeo, and that's just something that falls out of the numbers. FDev can decide that at least one major system must fall, but leave it to players to decide which. And then we get a genuinely interactive, evolving story.
(It's also possible that we wouldn't pull in the same direction and all major systems fall because we divide our strength. That's a story as well, but it is one that FDev should allow to unfold.)
it already has been, it seems. The progress bars in HIP 23716 and 20485 are already moving significantly in just about 12 hours, despite "strikes", groups "pulling out" and a general plethora of tantrums.
FDev did say they would tune it, and I suspect they have. Tbh, they should have tuned it every day of the last 7, artificially inflating the player response in the favoured systems so so that we were able to recapture 1-2 to prove we can and recognise that community engagement has been so high. It'd still be an overall loss given the new maelstrom, but it would have avoided this mass-disengagement. Obviously they should do this in total blackout, not giving us peeks behind the curtain and saying they're cheating on our behalf! The magic fades very easily if they tell us they intervened. They shouldn't have told us they would be tuning it, really.