There's not even a trend confirmed based on factual data - it's all based on a linear interpolation of a single assumption.
Perhaps some star systems are easier to defend then others.
Or Maybe, concentrating all efforts on a system that is already under heavy Thargoid attack is just the wrong way to go. They launched an attack to wipe out all of humanity, and they wouldn't have started if they were not able to reach their goal. A system that is invaded might just be too much for our current abilities. Why don't you just try focusing on a system that's just in the "alert" state?!
I really have a great problem with the reaction of Operation IDA or the AXI - sure, this resetting is demoralizing and has to be changed. But instead of trying to motivate the players, you all just give up.
"Oh, we can't defend a system that's under the heaviest attack imaginable - so it's too dangerous to try defending a different system"
Okay, so let's focus on different things in the game and let the Thargoids do their job until they changed the system and balanced it out. Oh, and when will it be balanced, that the combined efforts of the whole community is finally able to at least defend a single system? And how can they know that it is balanced if we just stop organizing?
I think that it's supposed to happen, that the Thargoids take over the control in quite a large number of systems, before we're able to bring their progress to a halt. Until then we can be happy if we're able to at least slow them down a bit. We will lose systems that are important for us. We will lose battles, ships, credits, stations and maybe even game progress. But we shouldn't lose that motivation that we saw in the community over the last week - and an important part of this was, IMO, that those big player groups started to name targets, systems we should try to defend. And now you just stopped, because you didn't succeed first try.
I'm also really upset that all the progress in HIP 23716 is gone and I "wasted" my evenings fighting in CZ (I had quite fun doing this, but losing all progress really causes the feeling that this was just a waste of time)... But it's even more demoralizing to see that a lot of players just give up immediately and that even groups like IDA don't try to motivate the people to get over this setback and try a different way or a different target/System.
However. I don't know if I was able to express what I wanted to say - I know english only as a foreign language and I have to look up quite a lot of words....
But I'll now set up an Orthrus killing machine and try to help out in Trianguli Sector CA-A c15 - the second priority on the system list and it's just in the "alert" state. But now it really feels like it's totally in vain - there won't be a lot of players trying this out, so there won't be any noteworthy progress.