Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Blaggerdy]

Nearly there for Njorog. We may even be able to get it done this tick, with any luck!

I'll try and get a few more to drop off, small beer in comparison to the sterling efforts of others but every tissue counts.

CMDR Carpets from AXI did some surveying of close-in uninhabited systems. Most interestingly, there is no slope at all for <5Ly - it's constant at 116,279 samples required.

Do the other activities have the same slope (combat I guess for uninhabited) or do different activities become more / less important as distance changes

 

[Starsong]

Do the other activities have the same slope (combat I guess for uninhabited) or do different activities become more / less important as distance changes

I don’t believe so. Other tests have seemed to indicate that it stays the same - and the relative efficiency of activities is also consistent between Controls and Alerts, accessibility of said activity notwithstanding!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victory in Unktety—and a very heavy surge leaves two more nearly complete and all Alerts on-course for completion! Thank you to PDES for the update regarding HIP 37844 and to AXI regarding Njorog; the INIV wing will proceed with the four systems to guard Khwal.

Alerts at 18:10 25th July 3309:
HIP 20890 Alert 96% *96.5% — Indra 22 Ly, 1609 Ls outpost, 2983 Ls planet
HIP 20491 Alert 90% — Indra 23 Ly, 1720 Ls planet
Pathamon Alert 58% — Leigong 22 Ly, 105 Ls starport, 194 Ls outpost, 105 Ls planet
Tagin Alert 56% — Raijin 23 Ly, 636 Ls outpost
Narrowly:
HIP 20899 Alert 54% *55.3% — Indra 23 Ly, 876 Ls outpost, 2991 Ls planet

Evictions:
HIP 112595 Control 62% *63% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty, 238 strength
Ixbaksha Control 36% *36.4% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1669 strength
Omumba Control 26% *27.7% — Hadad 14 Ly, ~14.5k strength
HIP 20741 Control 16% *16.4% — Indra 24 Ly, 1558 strength

Hey there thanks for sharing those findings. I've never posted on here before. I'll have to keep an eye on here from now on.

Thank you ever so much for all of your time spent measuring the differences between activities so well, and now also for those inner strength lines! Such are very much a continuation from those we established alongside evictions here, well into the distances I have had not the time aside to test. I am quite convinced that making such information available has inspired many Commanders to look at the system strengths against the activity amounts, realise that completion can be achieved, ultimately resulting in more successful evictions than otherwise would be the case.

By all means let me know if ever you would like some help from the INIV harvest wing to clear a system; it would be the least we can do in return!

It's roughly inverse cubic (if it was exactly halve distance for 10x difficulty, it'd be -3.322) which makes me slightly curious as to why they used the 5 LY set points for linear interpolation rather than just making it inverse ~cubic with min and max values.

I can imagine only that it is because those adept to write such an equation are also those who are working quite hard on the next update and would prefer not to be disturbed when a new one is desired! If you or I wanted it to start flattening a bit at low distance then we may think to choose something like 2 − arctan x³ and scale it from there, but I imagine a designer would prefer just to move some junctions around.

 

[Starsong]

All samples for Njorog have been collected and both carriers are jumping to the Antai system to offload! Do note that if you want to help with the unloading, you'll need to be friends with CMDRs Starsong68 and Grimscrub for the Ascension Light and [AXI] Invicta respectively.

 

[Starsong]

All samples delivered! Now just to wait for the progress updates...

 

[Starsong]

...Really?

 

[Blaggerdy]

Still, should be achievable? It only went 2/3rds for a while and that would have been far more challenging

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Indeed that should be no more than one round with a full wing, unless it turns out to need one more update to count it all. I imagine you are on the way back there, but if not, consider it complete by tomorrow morning!

 

[Starsong]

Indeed that should be no more than one round with a full wing, unless it turns out to need one more update to count it all. I imagine you are on the way back there, but if not, consider it complete by tomorrow morning!

Grim said he'd finish it.

 

[Grimscrub]

For more precise numbers, before the final few sampling runs (4 commanders in one instance, a couple soloing - so, few scouts may be in the middle), then after delivery -
WarProgress":0.004698
WarProgress":0.994484
starting second solo run now... given the note of a full wing, guess i'll make it three or four given 99.44% rather than the full 2% to go..

 

[Kira Goto]

For what it’s worth, the system(Njorog) is now reading as completed in-game. Imagine the relevant parties are already aware, but doesn’t hurt to say it.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Unktety, Col 285 Sectors ZE-P c6-15 and ZE-P c6-16, Njorog (very well done AXI!), HIPs 20890 and 20491, and Tagin! Another major Alert push moves the remaining two into a much safer position for a Wednesday, with Pathamon and HIP 20899 projecting an assuring 78% and 57% to spare.

Alerts at 07:30 26th July 3309, Wednesday caution:
Pathamon Alert 94% *94.8% — Leigong 22 Ly, 105 Ls starport, 194 Ls outpost, 105 Ls planet
HIP 20899 Alert 74% — Indra 23 Ly, 876 Ls outpost, 2991 Ls planet

Evictions:
HIP 112595 Control 92% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty, 52 strength
Ixbaksha Control 38% *39.6% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1585 strength
Omumba Control 28% *28.1% — Hadad 14 Ly, ~14.4k strength
HIP 20741 Control 16% *17% — Indra 24 Ly, 1546 strength

For what it’s worth, the system(Njorog) is now reading as completed in-game. Imagine the relevant parties are already aware, but doesn’t hurt to say it.

I imagine the relevant parties are exhausted, asleep or both! At 14.7 Ly from M. Taranis and while Gandje has yet even to complete recovery, Njorog becomes the new strongest-ever recaptured system. That said, also I am a little surprised that a trophy has not yet been posted; to the heroic @Grimscrub, @Starsong, @Blaggerdy et alia:

 

[Carpets]

Hey team, did some more testing, this time I did previously populated controlled systems. I've added them to the graph from before as you can see.

The system Eoto at 4.09 Ly requires 120000 samples. I was surprised to see such a round number, but if populated controlled systems also level off at <5 Ly then I suppose it makes sense.

The difference between previously unpopulated and previously populated systems with respect to samples required seems to narrow as we approach <5 Ly, and blows out as we go further out, as observed previously.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Hey team, did some more testing, this time I did previously populated controlled systems. I've added them to the graph from before as you can see.
The system Eoto at 4.09 Ly requires 120000 samples. I was surprised to see such a round number, but if populated controlled systems also level off at <5 Ly then I suppose it makes sense.

Thank you once again! That narrowing is very interesting; it means for Eoto that, as an example, all harvest wings here could complete it with two weeks of doing nothing else and enough carriers to store it all. All of that could also take much of a week just to deliver!

I think as @Ian Doncaster hinted earlier in terms of clearing 5-light-year shells and as we have been trying to do by collapsing the Maelstroms one by one down to ~20 Ly or so, it becomes a matter of inducing joint efforts by having fewer involved systems. I am now more curious than ever regarding whether a Maelstrom system can actually place an Alert of its own...

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I am now more curious than ever regarding whether a Maelstrom system can actually place an Alert of its own...

Yes, that would be very interesting to know, since it makes the difference between the war being theoretically winnable or not in its current form. The simplest test would probably be at Leigong - it only has three systems within 10 LY, and none of them can reach each other - whereas all the others have cross-connected interiors. HIP 9016 seems the "easiest" of those - it only has two other Control systems in range of it.

So to test, you'd need to recapture:
- HIP 9016 (9.60 uninhabited)
- Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 (14.46 uninhabited)
- HIP 9709 (15.21 uninhabited)

Collecting the 30,000 samples for HIP 9016 would be a substantial piece of work, though! You'd then have up to four weeks to get the 3,000 each for the other two to ensure that they couldn't interfere when HIP 9016 came off cooldown, which would also take some doing, if not quite as much.

 

[Grimscrub]

Apologies, was 2am so I pretty much keeled over soon as the 577 had been delivered and the bar moved.
Lovely stuff on the data, the note that U16 will be Tuesday now affords a little more window for experimentation/extravagant targets or final shoring up in turn I suppose.

For now, target achieved, taking the day to avoid violence from the SO my side, then will see how we're looking - think a few my side don't want to see any more limpets for a while.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in HIPs 20899, 112595 and 37844 (thank you PDES!), and Pathamon—all Alerts repelled once again, now for a fourth consecutive week! M. Cocijo becomes unable to attack Desurinbin, and all going well today it will be soon unable to attack Khwal either.

Evictions at 17:50 26th July 3309:
Ixbaksha Control 40% *41.1% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1546 strength
Omumba Control 28% *28.5% — Hadad 14 Ly, ~14.3k strength
HIP 6251 Control 18% — Leigong 31 Ly, empty, 253 strength
HIP 20741 Control 16% *17.2% — Indra 24 Ly, 1543 strength

So to test, you'd need to recapture:

• HIP 9016 (9.60 uninhabited)
• Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0 (14.46 uninhabited)
• HIP 9709 (15.21 uninhabited)

Collecting the 30,000 samples for HIP 9016 would be a substantial piece of work, though! You'd then have up to four weeks to get the 3,000 each for the other two to ensure that they couldn't interfere when HIP 9016 came off cooldown, which would also take some doing, if not quite as much.

With a suitably deep breath and a quite wise option to hold steady until all the fires next week have been extinguished... that can be arranged, spread approximately over two weeks and leaving a bit of room for general defence in between. V needs to off-load some Tritium first, but I think we can store it all!

If M. Leigong actually turns out unable to attack HIP 9016, and if it costs only 6000–7000 every six weeks to keep HIP 9016 guarded once-removed, that could be at least an interesting drain on its ability to attack stronger inhabited targets, if not a critical step towards ending it. Update 16 and the efficacy of harvesting permitting, consider that a «Wir müßen wißen; wir werden wißen» moment!

think a few my side don't want to see any more limpets for a while.

Indeed, and a very impactful reminder that Frontier need to be hassled frequently into accepting the radical notion that a war with the Thargoids probably ought to be won by destroying Thargoids!

 

[Starsong]

Indeed, and a very impactful reminder that Frontier need to be hassled frequently into accepting the radical notion that a war with the Thargoids probably ought to be won by destroying Thargoids!

Speaking as one of the aforementioned burnt-out samplers, I really, really hope we get combat made meaningful in Controls in U16.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

Indeed, and a very impactful reminder that Frontier need to be hassled frequently into accepting the radical notion that a war with the Thargoids probably ought to be won by destroying Thargoids!

Even if it does get patched the whole thargoid sampling deal really deserves to get an explanation in the lore/galnet to flesh out how studying the Thargoid bits is enabling those victories somehow with minimal bloodshed. That could also legit be an original storyline for a space opera type war story.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Even if it does get patched the whole thargoid sampling deal really deserves to get an explanation in the lore/galnet to flesh out how studying the Thargoid bits is enabling those victories somehow with minimal bloodshed. That could also legit be an original storyline for a space opera type war story.

Quite so! Especially given that Frontier loves to make Thargoid behaviour difficult to deduce with alien actions for alien reasons, definitely there is room for bridging the gap between their enemy obtaining the bio-mechanical material from their vessels and in effect choosing to withdraw from the system as a result. Speaking of which...

I really, really hope we get combat made meaningful in Controls in U16.

I think there may be a quite simple way to restore combat which could be woven quite easily into the notion of effecting withdrawal by capturing bio-mechanical material—make Thargoid Hearts worth as much as a few dozen Research samples. As I write that, I notice that I know not the effect of capturing a Thargoid Heart at the moment.