Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

The [SNPX] Oya Island can take samples for system HIP 15415. The Carrier stays in Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3
3 deliveries from HIP 15415
[AXI] Invicta (X5Q-83N) jumping to Cephei Sector AF-A c22, buy order for Lhou Mans will be set up on arriva
1 delivery from Lhou Mans
The [TCIA] Langley will take samples for the system Warnones.
1 delivery from Warnones
The [TCIA] Dawn of Sari (X8B-G3Q) takes samples for the system Niu Yun.
1 delivery from Niu Yun

Only ~70-96 samples per delivery but it all counts, right
 
Looks like with @Lt-Psych and @Syzuna taking the last two open places, we have each system storage accounted next week; thank you all! Posting or editing with updated totals occasionally is quite fine; I have been watching it all and maintaining the list.

Well done to @Blaggerdy for something of a tour to get several systems started; even if it was just a few solo rounds, it is quite nice to have non-empty holds and something to list ahead of week 70.

@CMDR Vulkarius has also opened access to an INIV carrier INV Astral Flame HNZ-G1F, buying Research samples from Cephei Sector WO-A b3 and parked at Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5. Actually we are harvesting from HIP 21165 in the meantime, but anything remaining for Cephei Sector WO-A b3 will follow it.

Thanks very much to SNPX and CMDR Sniik for preparing Kanus so early; it is quite heartening to have one medium target ready before the next week begins!

Finally, @Medi0cr3 is nudged gently for the Ardhri delivery!
 
Medi0cr3 from off-forum comms will be delivering soon as they're back from work as a heads-up.

Past that... after querying the folks my side, recieved a dm from Upper staff who had run events trying to push Leigong before it got down to 3, and several for Taranis.
An everyone ping announcement went out shortly thereafter -- so, AXI side at least will be trying to push for 0, or as close as possible.

To make that as close to sane as possible, will be helping pre-sample as much as possible for W70, then when the buy orders are filled, starting on the ones folk agree on for W71, if any carriers are available.

There may be a lot of coffee in my near future.
 
An everyone ping announcement went out shortly thereafter -- so, AXI side at least will be trying to push for 0, or as close as possible.

Goodness—if you are all sure about that, note that it rests heavily on keeping Commanders at the remaining Spire site, and indeed upon a strong week 70 peripheral clearance. It is clear that there will be ample time to do that of course, and definitely I can communicate what Commanders are attempting to achieve, but it will be competing with a very tempting Titan target!

There is also an interesting dynamics interaction here; the focus on additional strong payloads and another peripheral clearance to achieve zero systems can cause prolonging of the Titan meltdown a bit, perhaps itself affording another week of time to prepare payloads and make that clearance successful. If that pacing turns out to be the case, it will be best to devote week 71 to stockpiling payloads and Spire contaminants, then switch over fully to the Spire in week 72 so as not to require two 66% sieges.

Other pacing outcomes are possible depending on the non-AXI Titan turnout and the actual Titan resistance, which will need to be discovered come the time:
  • No amount of ignoring the Titan stops it entering meltdown in week 71. In this case, it would be as well not to rush any harvesting and instead rush the Spire site, thus leaving behind several nearly-complete systems which are reinforced no longer. It may also be that this is possible without rushing either, if it turns out that simply having one more Spire site around will suffice for clearing the remaining systems at any time.
  • There is so much clearance support that it is all done in week 71, including the Spire site.
  • Something special happens at the Titan due to not having cleared the Spire site.
If the goal itself is to leave behind zero systems where possible, I can try to convey that to others. If the goal is just to discover how strong is a Titan assault with zero systems—I can only suggest trying that with T. Hadad instead!
 
Goodness—if you are all sure about that, note that it rests heavily on keeping Commanders at the remaining Spire site, and indeed upon a strong week 70 peripheral clearance. It is clear that there will be ample time to do that of course, and definitely I can communicate what Commanders are attempting to achieve, but it will be competing with a very tempting Titan target!

There is also an interesting dynamics interaction here; the focus on additional strong payloads and another peripheral clearance to achieve zero systems can cause prolonging of the Titan meltdown a bit, perhaps itself affording another week of time to prepare payloads and make that clearance successful. If that pacing turns out to be the case, it will be best to devote week 71 to stockpiling payloads and Spire contaminants, then switch over fully to the Spire in week 72 so as not to require two 66% sieges.

Other pacing outcomes are possible depending on the non-AXI Titan turnout and the actual Titan resistance, which will need to be discovered come the time:
  • No amount of ignoring the Titan stops it entering meltdown in week 71. In this case, it would be as well not to rush any harvesting and instead rush the Spire site, thus leaving behind several nearly-complete systems which are reinforced no longer. It may also be that this is possible without rushing either, if it turns out that simply having one more Spire site around will suffice for clearing the remaining systems at any time.
  • There is so much clearance support that it is all done in week 71, including the Spire site.
  • Something special happens at the Titan due to not having cleared the Spire site.
If the goal itself is to leave behind zero systems where possible, I can try to convey that to others. If the goal is just to discover how strong is a Titan assault with zero systems—I can only suggest trying that with T. Hadad instead!
The main issue is with 7 systems (given we clear all 10 peripheral systems next week) it still has a "High" dmg res.
I doubt it would be down in a one tick/week with that dmg res so in my opinion it's better to at least try to get that down as much as possible.
If we can get it down to 3 like Leigong at least that would be really helpful
 
Orions Ascension currently has 1354 samples for HIP 10778 stored. Cmdr Captain MD from the AXI discord server has ~470 scythe samples for the system which I am arranging to consolidate with the scout samples as well for a total of 1824 for the system. Work will continue to hopefully be concluded tomorrow.
 
The main issue is with 7 systems (given we clear all 10 peripheral systems next week) it still has a "High" dmg res.
I doubt it would be down in a one tick/week with that dmg res so in my opinion it's better to at least try to get that down as much as possible.
If we can get it down to 3 like Leigong at least that would be really helpful

I would not read too much into that resistance label—it is clear that the actual resistance number is on a curve, such that two Titans with an adjacent amount of Control systems will have similar resistance. In that sense, there ought not be a mysterious threshold beyond which it is wrong to attack the Titan, rather the Titan simply taking incrementally more time to destroy, and T. Oya is going to have a lot of time!

Moreover:
  • T. Taranis started with six Control systems when it became vulnerable in week 65 (on that Monday), and took good damage over three days or so.
  • Despite becoming seven Control on Thursday when week 66 commenced, its remaining rings were gone before Friday evening.
Unlike T. Taranis, T. Oya will not be gaining anything for many weeks—it may be starting with seven, but at seven it will stay, and unless Frontier changes it I think that ought to suffice. Actual willingness aside, I could not possibly ask anyone for fewer due to the immense effort it implies! That would be asking dozens of Commanders to ignore a perfectly vulnerable Titan and do another Spire week, and also asking some Commanders to harvest yet more Research samples for some much stronger systems than M. Taranis had.

There is also the possible future problem of everyone becoming a little too comfortable with assuming that Titans must reach the Moderate label before attacking them, for in some cases we may not be able to reach Moderate at all. For example, the troubles with M. Indra are that it is too dense to prevent new Alerts while collapsing it, and that its final Spire will become peripheral before its final Control systems do. M. Cocijo has an even worse final Spire, which is in 17 place, so it can not possibly take us below seven systems without somehow getting Commanders to stop attacking it at 85%.

As @Ian Doncaster stated earlier, it could be worth discovering how many Control systems we can tolerate and still destroy a Titan, before that becomes a necessity!


Orions Ascension currently has 1354 samples for HIP 10778 stored. Cmdr Captain MD from the AXI discord server has ~470 scythe samples for the system which I am arranging to consolidate with the scout samples as well for a total of 1824 for the system. Work will continue to hopefully be concluded tomorrow.

Thank you—I noted that as 1824. I imagine Scythe samples are absent from Carrier markets because they arrived at a time when the out-of-stock list was revealing the existence of various things ahead of Commanders discovering them. Definitely many Commanders saw the Titan and Glaive samples listed before seeing the corresponding Thargoids!

Having never been added to the market list, I wonder now whether harvesting an unsuspecting Scythe results in more cargo transport trouble than it is worth.
 
Question about 0 to 85% progress. Does Titan pod rescues advance this atm? Also if it does advance this, can pod's be precollected to FC and turned in next thursdays tick and it progresses systems then or is there limitation on this?
 
Question about 0 to 85% progress. Does Titan pod rescues advance this atm? Also if it does advance this, can pod's be precollected to FC and turned in next thursdays tick and it progresses systems then or is there limitation on this?
There’s not much data on pods, but we think they add progress to inhabited Counterstrike systems specifically.
 
There’s not much data on pods, but we think they add progress to inhabited Counterstrike systems specifically.
Yes - recent tests suggest with about 1/10th the effectiveness of a sample taken in that counterstrike system, for the same tonnage, though on the other hand the pod can affect multiple systems at the bigger maelstroms.

Note specifically here: pod rescues - unlike Spire attacks - do scale to the base system difficulty.

You should be able to save pods up across a tick but it's harder to predict which systems will benefit as counterstrike the next week.
 
Indeed—to add a bit of background for @Yarcc there:
  • At first, Titan rescues gave fixed progress to all Counterstrike systems, including empty systems which were hidden Counterstrikes. This was a blunder by Frontier because it allowed us to clear Matrix systems before their Spire sites formed fully, and the only time a war outcome has been reverted!
  • Rescues were changed very quickly so that they contributed to peripheral progress, up to the same 85% as with Spire sieges. This remained the case for around 2–3 weeks, during which it was indeed very useful to stockpile the rescues to help a Spire siege.
  • They then changed back to giving fixed Counterstrike progress again, corrected this time so that empty systems are not included, and either way leaving them relatively useless.
Looking back, it seems their brief time contributing to peripheral progress probably was a temporary means to stem the empty Counterstrike error. Unfortunately the entire Counterstrike idea never really found a suitable place in the war strategy; this was my comment about it from Thargoid War feedback: One-year edition:

Aside from the brief mistake regarding Titan rescues mentioned earlier, it appears now that Titan rescues have a fixed-strength effect on inhabited Counterstrike systems. This makes perfect narrative sense but near-useless strategic sense; in effect, Counterstrike systems have either:
  • No useful role or sensible place in the war.
  • A role so unclear that we have not been able to identify and use it.
I enjoy much the idea of some systems being more advantageous that way and perhaps having to adapt to make use of it, but thus far the Counterstrike notion has not achieved that.
 
I would not read too much into that resistance label—it is clear that the actual resistance number is on a curve, such that two Titans with an adjacent amount of Control systems will have similar resistance. In that sense, there ought not be a mysterious threshold beyond which it is wrong to attack the Titan, rather the Titan simply taking incrementally more time to destroy, and T. Oya is going to have a lot of time!

Moreover:
  • T. Taranis started with six Control systems when it became vulnerable in week 65 (on that Monday), and took good damage over three days or so.
  • Despite becoming seven Control on Thursday when week 66 commenced, its remaining rings were gone before Friday evening.
Unlike T. Taranis, T. Oya will not be gaining anything for many weeks—it may be starting with seven, but at seven it will stay, and unless Frontier changes it I think that ought to suffice. Actual willingness aside, I could not possibly ask anyone for fewer due to the immense effort it implies! That would be asking dozens of Commanders to ignore a perfectly vulnerable Titan and do another Spire week, and also asking some Commanders to harvest yet more Research samples for some much stronger systems than M. Taranis had.

There is also the possible future problem of everyone becoming a little too comfortable with assuming that Titans must reach the Moderate label before attacking them, for in some cases we may not be able to reach Moderate at all. For example, the troubles with M. Indra are that it is too dense to prevent new Alerts while collapsing it, and that its final Spire will become peripheral before its final Control systems do. M. Cocijo has an even worse final Spire, which is in 17 place, so it can not possibly take us below seven systems without somehow getting Commanders to stop attacking it at 85%.

As @Ian Doncaster stated earlier, it could be worth discovering how many Control systems we can tolerate and still destroy a Titan, before that becomes a necessity!




Thank you—I noted that as 1824. I imagine Scythe samples are absent from Carrier markets because they arrived at a time when the out-of-stock list was revealing the existence of various things ahead of Commanders discovering them. Definitely many Commanders saw the Titan and Glaive samples listed before seeing the corresponding Thargoids!

Having never been added to the market list, I wonder now whether harvesting an unsuspecting Scythe results in more cargo transport trouble than it is worth.
On my side(without being too bothered to quote the or a relevant post section - bit lazy at the moment), I would find it more interesting right now to see what Titan resistance is like at 7/8 controls right now(or how long it would take to defeat) to compare it to the rate of progression Taranis achieved - since Frontier made it appear as if it taking as much damage as it did at Moderate/High resistance with 6 and 7 controls respectively was a one off and not the basis on which to look at the others.

… but there is of course the caveat of personal interpretation of the statement. Because it could just as easily have referred to the higher number of controls of the various Titans following.

And I am far from being particularly involved in any planning or present in any of those individual servers where it is being done, so it’s not up to me to decide anyway.
 
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Incremental update - Invicta now holding 2168 so far for Lhou Mans.
-- 3206 @ 03:41UTC Thursday.
-- 3330 @ 04:49, dropping for srestleep.
-- 3608 @ 10:58... apologies for ^, guess i really was passing out that second.
-- 3742 @ 12:57
-- 4376 @ 19:48
-- 9033 @ 04:31
-- 9733 @ 06:20
-- 10217 @ 08:28
-- 10619 @ 09:55, order filled.


Far as the 4th onward and talks from earlier - folk went to bed but, sounded like 5 or less control systems remaining would be vastly preferred from further talk, so, will see where we end up, how many people go for the titan at 7 on their own initiative and all.

Have advised given the 2m in bonds accumulated in the week before meltdown that people with full time work/etc. get their contributions in on the sundays just in case - then if things get obliterated by a given saturday (again), that'll be within the 7 days - best chance of it counting as long as that 'week' isn't just flatly measured thursday to thursday. So, there may be some spikes in titan activity on weekends.

Taking what was posted, making best efforts to be pragmatic about it - I'll lean towards primary focus being the three Shayan discussed before, Baiabozo, Cephei Sector AF-A c11 and Inara come first.
Will see if carriers can be lined up past that, but will advise any listening to me to prioritise those three after the next 9/10, then see if there's time and-or enthusiasm for any past that.

The suddenly getting DM'd with energy was a pleasant surprise but, better that the enthusiasm go toward the structured plan first I feel - will see how it goes..
 
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1855 scout samples for HIP 10778 on Orion’s Ascension as of now. Demand in carrier has been met along with the pending ~470 scythe samples courtesy of Cmdr. Captain-MD brings total for 10778 to ~2325.
 
9 alerts per titan. And, if I'm not mistaken, the first Short Recovery (where a recovery was listed as taking 4 weeks completing in 3) in Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94. This is in contrast to the quite common long recoveries (where a recovery was listed as taking 3 weeks and then extending another week).
 
Indeed; with two destroyed and two with all attackers stopped, I am quite sure the others rise in response! With a goal of reducing total Alerts as opposed to exposing a Titan, I think trying to stop attackers becomes pointless unless done everywhere together, for if the few remaining will produce more attacks then it is as well for those to be weak, outer targets.
 
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