Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5, Lahua and Gliese 9035!

Invasions at 18:10 17th April 3309:
HIP 117177 Invasion 58% — Raijin 25 Ly, 3 ports, 213 Ls outpost attack
Kuruma Invasion 4% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1 port, 251k Ls outpost attack

Alerts:
Kagutsuchi Alert 64% — Indra 22 Ly, 42 Ls starport, 85 Ls outpost
Minawara Alert 38% — Oya 23 Ly, 412 Ls outpost, 412 Ls planet
Putas Alert 34% — Hadad 23 Ly, 572 Ls starport
Garongxians Alert 28% — Leigong 28 Ly, 5998 Ls starport, 6149 Ls outpost
HIP 29596 Alert 28% — Hadad 18 Ly, 2098 Ls starport, 3038 Ls outpost
HIP 26688 Alert 24% — Taranis 22 Ly, 230 Ls planet

Clean-up:
Trianguli Sector BA-A d84 Control 52% — Taranis 28 Ly, empty
LTT 11707 Control 44% — Oya 28 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5 Control 14% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2 Alert 12% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5 Control 10% — Hadad 22 Ly, empty

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-0, Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-8 and Minawara! Those make twenty-four, and it looks to me that time will allow for around five more Alerts.

With Col 285 Sectors RX-Z b14-0 and RX-Z b14-8 cleared, that should now prevent an Alert at Ramandji next cycle, and indeed also protects the retaken Yukait from future trouble. If we can do it, the next INIV targets for later will be Col 285 Sectors TS-Z b14-2 and TS-Z b14-3, which should then prevent an Alert at Ahol and leave M. Hadad unable to produce any populated Alerts at all next cycle.

Invasions at 07:20 18th April 3309:
HIP 117177 Invasion 92% — Raijin 25 Ly, 3 ports, 213 Ls outpost attack
Kuruma Invasion 8% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1 port, 251k Ls outpost attack

Alerts:
Kagutsuchi Alert 84% — Indra 22 Ly, 42 Ls starport, 85 Ls outpost
HIP 26688 Alert 78% — Taranis 22 Ly, 230 Ls planet
Putas Alert 50% — Hadad 23 Ly, 572 Ls starport
HIP 29596 Alert 42% — Hadad 18 Ly, 2098 Ls starport, 3038 Ls outpost
Garongxians Alert 40% — Leigong 28 Ly, 5998 Ls starport, 6149 Ls outpost

Clean-up:
Trianguli Sector BA-A d84 Control 72% — Taranis 28 Ly, empty
LTT 11707 Control 66% — Oya 28 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5 Control 14% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11 Control 12% — Hadad 29 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2 Alert 12% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in HIP 117177, HIP 26688, LTT 11707 and Kagutsuchi! Only the distant Kuruma remains on the Invasion front, and please mind that only seven more populated Alerts remain. Taking two more would be comfortable and four more would be borderline (those shown below), but the investments are getting risky now, and at this point anything deferred to the Invasion stage should be absolutely fine.

As I have been suggesting and implementing, once the Alerts in a cycle are reduced well within the Invasion capacity, any remaining Research time would be spent better on clean-up. We even have the luxury of an attack prediction which one can use to make intelligent clean-up choices. Both approaches will starve the bubble of Invasions of course, but the Control approach actually drives the Thargoids back!

Invasion at 18:00 18th April 3309:
Kuruma Invasion 12% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1 port, 251k Ls outpost attack

Alerts:
Putas Alert 62% — Hadad 23 Ly, 572 Ls starport
HIP 29596 Alert 56% — Hadad 18 Ly, 2098 Ls starport, 3038 Ls outpost
Garongxians Alert 48% — Leigong 28 Ly, 5998 Ls starport, 6149 Ls outpost
Isla Alert 38% — Raijin 24 Ly, 888 Ls starport

Clean-up:
Trianguli Sector BA-A d84 Control 76% — Taranis 28 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5 Control 14% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11 Control 12% — Hadad 29 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2 Alert 12% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5 Control 10% — Hadad 22 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-3 Alert 10% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty

 

[Kayvan]

Briefly tried Kuruma tonight. Obv I'm not travelling 200kls so I just went to a close CZ. Ofc I was the only one there.
For this venture I refitted my trusty Chieftain: enhanced scanner, 2 small Plasmas, 2 large MCs, and a flak. The MCs (instead of shards) enable me to switch gunsights to Leading, which makes the flak usable. Also, the Chieftain packs 16 repair limpets so I can stay in the fight longer. I figured this approach was more sustainable than the FAS without limpets or flak.

That was the theory. In practice, the first swarm immediately zerged me with a hundred thousand million missiles and when I made it out of that pickle, a bunch of my modules was utterly destroyed and the AFMU depleted before fixing half of them. I stuck around and managed to kill one Cyclops, then bailed.

 

[Blaggerdy]

I have been focused on Kuruma instead of HIP 117177. I may have been the only person there yesterday and hard to move the bar much.

I'd been picking up escape pods yesterday, shooting a few scouts and 1-2 cyclops in a Cutter. Slow work, and a fair haul to nearest rescue ship.

Today I tried my hull tank Type-10 with minimal shield, got a low CZ to the hydras.
I joined a couple of CMDRs at the outpost and got to hydras, with a Phantom.
A 4th CMDR joined after a reset, 3 of us stuck around for hydras but gave up on first heart at 63%.

I am informed that ejecting in Kuruma sees you respawn at the outpost but I haven't tried it. I guess that exploit works for a low cost ship without limpets.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2 and Putas! Kuruma is starting to receive steady attention (well done!) and is now at least likely to reach the 33% surplus threshold. Coincidentally, Isla is also projecting only a 33% surplus, which is quite possible but can prove to be too little as the end of the cycle approaches.

Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2 was much more difficult than expected for an uninhabited system; not as much as Yukait, but something like a little over half of that, amplified by being 21.1 Ly from M. Hadad versus 26.1 for Yukait. The plan here is still to attempt Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3 as well!

Targets at 07:30 19th April 3309:
Garongxians Alert 86% — Leigong 28 Ly, 5998 Ls starport, 6149 Ls outpost
HIP 29596 Alert 76% — Hadad 18 Ly, 2098 Ls starport, 3038 Ls outpost

Borderline:
Isla Alert 54% — Raijin 24 Ly, 888 Ls starport
Kuruma Invasion 22% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1 port, 251k Ls outpost attack

Clean-up:
Trianguli Sector BA-A d84 Control 90% — Taranis 28 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18 Control 22% — Thor 39 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5 Control 14% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11 Control 12% — Hadad 29 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2 Alert 12% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3 Control 10% — Oya 15 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5 Control 10% — Hadad 22 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-3 Alert 10% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty

That was the theory. In practice, the first swarm immediately zerged me with a hundred thousand million missiles and when I made it out of that pickle, a bunch of my modules was utterly destroyed and the AFMU depleted before fixing half of them. I stuck around and managed to kill one Cyclops, then bailed.

That sounds very much like the Interceptor had been present for too long, after which you get endless swarms and they all become missiles together when angered. When I was harvesting solo, which continues well beyond that point, a very useful method was to fly specifically to provoke the missiles but with a tracjectory which will escape their 3-kilometer range.

Your FAS should be able to do that reactively with a boost, and usually the Chieftain can also if it is not caught too close to the swarm when it occurs!

I am informed that ejecting in Kuruma sees you respawn at the outpost but I haven't tried it. I guess that exploit works for a low cost ship without limpets.

Interesting idea; that would be a most dedicated evacuation approach!

 

[yttrbio]

Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18 is another experiment system. After some testing, it doesn't look like there's any multiplier for turning in samples in a wing. For those tracking numbers, we got to 30% with 87 basilisk samples and 21 medusa samples. Testing is done, in case anyone feels like wrapping it up, but I don't think it's particularly important.

How many samples did it take for Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2?

 

[BDelacroix]

Haven't played since the meta went to the boring game play mechanic. Looks like a handful of people can win this war. Sid Meier was right, Given the opportunity, players will optimize the fun out of the game.
Even to the point of purposely self destructing to get just a bit faster to the outpost in one system.

 

[Blaggerdy]

It takes about 15 minutes to get to the Kneale Arena outpost (plus any interdictions on the way) so not in the same league as Hutton. I have seen minimal participation to date compared to other outpost systems but no idea if down to non-meta activity, compromised for large ships, players have restricted gaming time, etc.

I have switched from open for non-combat activity to not block the outpost for others.

Which boring game play mechanic stopped you.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Looks like a handful of people can win this war. Sid Meier was right, Given the opportunity, players will optimize the fun out of the game.

Even if the human side was winning - there have been no weeks where the Thargoids have made a net loss, and only one where the humans haven't made a net loss, despite the rebalancing - isn't this one on Frontier that attacking Thargoid Control systems isn't as fun (or, at least, doesn't contain as wide a range of activities so isn't as fun for everyone) as defending populated Alert/Invasion systems is, so winning even locally implies a reduction in fun?

I'm unconvinced that the current human (inferred aggregate) strategy is actually optimal anyway, though - not for anything like long-term victory count at least.

Even to the point of purposely self destructing to get just a bit faster to the outpost in one system.

Isn't that de-optimising to have more fun, though - fighting Thargoids around an outpost at the cost of in-game resources and limiting choice of ship and build, rather than spending 15 minutes flying in a straight line for no cost and free choice of ship and build?

 

[BDelacroix]

Even if the human side was winning - there have been no weeks where the Thargoids have made a net loss, and only one where the humans haven't made a net loss, despite the rebalancing - isn't this one on Frontier that attacking Thargoid Control systems isn't as fun (or, at least, doesn't contain as wide a range of activities so isn't as fun for everyone) as defending populated Alert/Invasion systems is, so winning even locally implies a reduction in fun?

I'm unconvinced that the current human (inferred aggregate) strategy is actually optimal anyway, though - not for anything like long-term victory count at least.


Isn't that de-optimising to have more fun, though - fighting Thargoids around an outpost at the cost of in-game resources and limiting choice of ship and build, rather than spending 15 minutes flying in a straight line for no cost and free choice of ship and build?

No, killing one's self to get to the far off outpost faster (read more efficiently) is the epitome of Sid Meier's quote.
As to the "go do the boring sample thing", that is indeed on Frontier. Its a weird decision. I agree with Obsidian Ant and D2EA on this one.

I was just noting yesterday that an awful lot of games include "do nothing" as a game mechanic. Been playing X4 again and yep, there is a lot of sitting around doing nothing. Waiting for things to finish.

 

[Cunning Plan]

With tongue firmly in cheek, the current war meta seems rather odd to me at the moment.....

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

I don't believe the current meta (clearing entire systems by selling tissue samples) was ever intended/anticipated.
Before the multi-limpet controllers existed, collecting samples was very slow going because at best you had to equip multiple 1E research controllers to collect more than one sample at a time. Being able to collect 8 (like you can with a universal MLC) was a pipe dream, especially with cargo space for the limpets. I think we just got lucky that the MLCs were thrown together quickly and don't have any individual limits on the types of limpets that can be deployed.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Garongxians, HIP 29596 and Trianguli Sector BA-A d84 (great job @Tassier)! Now that only four populated Alerts remain, it is very much as well to direct that attention onto removing all of that unpopulated presence from the systems in between; the ones which are causing those Alerts originally. The systems which are 30 Ly or more will be very quick to clear!

In the context of harvesting, solo Commanders can do it quite well by choosing an inward-facing system which has a Conflict Zone present, and the easiest for a Wing is if a nice nearby landable planet is present. I have noticed a good open-space method in a Wing as well, though we are still perfecting that (everyone needs to be really careful). Either way, I find that just two Commanders make things many times more efficient than with one, largely due to catching one Cyclops and keeping it around indefinitely.

Borderline: Isla Alert 64% — Raijin 24 Ly, 888 Ls starport
Surplus: Kuruma Invasion 32% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1 port, 251k Ls outpost attack
Unlikely: Yan Zangata Alert 30% — Hadad 22 Ly

Clean-up:
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18 Control 30% — Thor 39 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5 Control 14% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11 Control 12% — Hadad 29 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5 Control 12% — Hadad 22 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2 Alert 12% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3 Control 10% — Oya 15 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-3 Alert 10% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty

How many samples did it take for Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2?

576 Cyclops samples, or exactly four Anacondas at 144 per hold, gave 52%. Assuming that the progress only reports 52% if it has indeed actually exceeded 52%, that places the required number of samples between 1067 and 1108.

I'm unconvinced that the current human (inferred aggregate) strategy is actually optimal anyway, though - not for anything like long-term victory count at least.

Indeed; at minimum, nothing can turn around at all unless some Control evictions occur regardless of position. At that point, I think that using your tracking of the next possible Alerts to choose the specific Control systems which would stymie them is a quite lovely idea!

I don't believe the current meta (clearing entire systems by selling tissue samples) was ever intended/anticipated.

Definitely agreed! I would be quite happy if, for example, a bit of harvesting gave a bit of secondary progress but its main effect would be to make subsequent combat actions give a lot more progress. Perhaps some search and rescue at Signal sources could cause those rescued system AX forces to regroup and restore/increase friendly presence to help fight there, while combat actions could also result in more progress-lucrative salvage appearing.

I think we just got lucky that the MLCs were thrown together quickly and don't have any individual limits on the types of limpets that can be deployed.

Very likely indeed, considering especially that it mocks the class 7 Collection controller for limpet count.

 

[RaketeMike]

Caution, now there is a ganker present in Open at the Thargoid attacked outpost in Kuruma. Watch out what a poor spirit. Think we have moved the progress bar beyond 33% anyway before he arrived

Edit: oh no ! Its still at 32% according to the Overwatch site . Had to leave to IRL unfortunately, hope it gets done nonethless.

 

[Blaggerdy]

Indeed; at minimum, nothing can turn around at all unless some Control evictions occur regardless of position. At that point, I think that using your tracking of the next possible Alerts to choose the specific Control systems which would stymie them is a quite lovely idea!

It sounds a good idea.

I was looking at the war update and Oya has less systems under control than the other maelstroms (83 as opposed to 124-188). If we can get into a position where Oya has no systems under control could that be the next step to making malestroms susceptible in some way either to research or more direct methods. Picking on the weakest and all that.

 

[BDelacroix]

It sounds a good idea.

I was looking at the war update and Oya has less systems under control than the other maelstroms (83 as opposed to 124-188). If we can get into a position where Oya has no systems under control could that be the next step to making malestroms susceptible in some way either to research or more direct methods. Picking on the weakest and all that.

Well the game play will involved taking hundreds and thousands of samples of the little mines in the maelstrom.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victory in Isla!

We are just now delivering samples which should finish Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3, and in theory, shut down any prospect of M. Hadad producing a populated Alert. Because I know @yttrbio would very much love the specific numbers, that initial 32% it has at the moment was 320 samples, so the needed number should be between 942 and 1000. We harvested 1080 total!

Additional: It is almost exactly 22 light-years from the Maelstrom.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 21, 20th April 3309​

Report
Thirteen Alerts repelled at Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3, Luggerates, HIPs 21991, 20019 and 19757, HR 1812, Juipedun, Cao Tzu, Aowicha, Khondo Po, Nu Guang, Jawul, Arietis Sector GG-Y d63.
Four Invasions defended at 69 Upsilon Tauri, Yan Zangata, Bormuninus, Kuruma.
Eleven Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors JW-M c7-11, NR-B b14-0, OC-L c8-11, SX-Z b14-1, TS-Z b14-4, YY-X b15-8, TS-Z b14-0 and TS-Z b14-5, HIP 115777, Cephei Sectors HW-W b1-5 and ZZ-Y b3.

Targets updated at 06:40 27th April 3309
Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-0 Alert 78% — Taranis 29 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1 Control 60% — Taranis 26 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3 Alert 20% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-3 Alert 16% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-4 Alert 16% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1 Alert 10% — Leigong 35 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6 Alert 10% — Hadad 29 Ly, empty
Auaker Control 8% — Thor 36 Ly
HR 8536 Control 8% — Raijin 28 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5 Alert 8% — Taranis 26 Ly, empty
HIP 21099 Control 6% — Indra 27 Ly, empty
65 Kappa Tauri Control 4% — Indra 25 Ly
Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0 Control 4% — Indra 23 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 Control 4% — Taranis 20 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0 Control 4% — Raijin 26 Ly, empty
Wanmi Control 4% — Raijin 26 Ly
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 Alert 2% — Indra 27 Ly, 1020 Ls planet
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9 Alert 2% — Indra 25 Ly, empty
Chakma Control 2% — Raijin 22 Ly
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5 Alert 2% — Cocijo 26 Ly, 471 Ls planet
Col 285 Sector FQ-O c6-3 Alert 2% — Hadad 31 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21 Alert 2% — Hadad 32 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3 Alert 2% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 703 Ls planet
HIP 11111 Control 2% — Oya 24 Ly
HIP 18075 Control 2% — Thor 21 Ly
HIP 19781 Control 2% — Indra 26 Ly
HIP 37844 Control 2% — Cocijo 28 Ly
HIP 6869 Alert 2% — Leigong 33 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5 Control 2% — Indra 22 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0 Control 2% — Raijin 21 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2 Control 2% — Raijin 20 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-5 Control 2% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty

Week 20, 13th April 3309​

Report
Twenty Alerts repelled at Lunguni, Poqomathi, Ge, Baudani, HIPs 20485, 6913, 26688 and 29596, Namayu, Vogulu, Ebisu, Heng, Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5, Lahua, Gliese 9035, Minawara, Kagutsuchi, Putas, Garongxians, Isla.
Six Invasions defended at Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3, HIPs 20492, 20899, 21724 and 117177, Holvandalla.
Nine Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors RX-Z b14-0, TS-Z b14-2, PM-B b14-5, VN-Z b14-7, RX-Z b14-8 and TS-Z b14-3, Yukait, LTT 11707, Trianguli Sector BA-A d84.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in 69 Upsilon Tauri, Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3 and Luggerates! Alerts and Invasions are quite well underway, with the below Invasions being the only three remaining, and I see a small eviction prod at Auaker!

Targets at 22:40 21st April 3309:
Yan Zangata Invasion 44% — Hadad 22 Ly, 2 ports, 98 Ls outpost attack
Bormuninus Invasion 32% — Raijin 24 Ly, 4 ports, 63 Ls outpost attack
Kuruma Invasion 28% — Raijin 26 Ly, 0 ports, 251k Ls outpost damage
Auaker Control 6% — Thor 36 Ly

Alerts:
HIP 21991 Alert 88% — Taranis 26 Ly, 1149 Ls starport, 2928 Ls planet
HR 1812 Alert 78% — Taranis 27 Ly, 1554 Ls planet
Juipedun Alert 70% — Oya 24 Ly, 39 Ls starport, 12 Ls planet
HIP 20019 Alert 58% — Indra 26 Ly, 786 Ls starport, 1060 Ls outpost, 781 Ls planet
Nu Guang Alert 16% — Raijin 19 Ly, 44 Ls starport

Clean-up:
HIP 115777 Control 40% — Oya 30 Ly, empty
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-3 Alert 8% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty
HIP 21099 Control 6% — Indra 27 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1 Control 6% — Taranis 26 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1 Alert 4% — Leigong 35 Ly, empty