Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Grimscrub]

Currently at 12,900 and change, total capacity was ~16k in the end.
Checked with the second carrier owner - they're stuck off-game for a few hours, so could store but not jump/setup for offload Yet. going to dump trit reserves, should be able to get ~18.6k on carrier with that then bulk sell.

-- update at 20:42; Dumped everything reasonable, 18,730 will be the total if the updated buy order is finished.
21:28 - 15k
22:49 - 16k
00:02 - 17.5k
01:01 - Buy Order Filled. will schedule jump when docked.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

The order is complete for the Invicta! The amount provided from us should become 4648; we will collect any excess, look for a nice system to use for the weekly strength test, then could assist with delivery if that would help.

 

[Grimscrub]

Well, I passed out before the results, but there we go.

Full credit on all fronts, it would've been a two week push minimum without like ten folk my side going into sampling more than was reasonable, Plus all the combat/ad hoc work, Plus INIV, plus any who hopped in when it was mentioned across a good few discords...

Here I'd been prepared to take two or three weeks chipping away there.
Now I guess, i'll park up to stare at the barnacle system post-downtime, and line up some (Much Smaller) pushes if its still indestructible.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Ceti Sector ZE-A c14, Pegasi Sectors UF-L a9-0, MN-S b4-2 and MN-S b4-0, and Omumba of course! That did very well to become provisionally eighty-one systems while also including the new:

• Nearest-ever; HIP 9016 at 9.6 Ly with 20043 strength.
• Strongest-ever; Omumba at 13.6 Ly with around 27682 strength.

Very well done!

As V mentioned earlier, mind that the upcoming week 38 will overlap the Elite Community Meet, very likely making it a bit lighter for action here. Definitely INIV will be taking a general break to coincide with it, hopefully to return with a full wing on Sunday if V has recovered by then!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 38, 17th August 3309​

Report
Thirty-two Alerts repelled at Pegasi Sectors VK-L a9-2, RE-N a8-4, NY-O a7-3 and FW-W d1-110, Col 285 Sectors JW-M c7-10, BA-P c6-16, KW-M c7-16, OR-B b14-4, OS-T d3-105, YT-F b12-1, WY-F b12-5, OB-E b12-4 and TH-C b13-3, Arietis Sector FG-Y d66, Hyades Sectors EB-N b7-0, PN-T c3-7 and KH-L b8-0, HIPs 23593, 20485, 20056, 20948 and 19757, HR 1403, Cephei Sectors FB-X b1-1, WO-A b4 and DQ-Y b1, Vogulu, Gliese 9035, 29 e Orionis, Vucumatha, Balak and Bi Dhorora.
Thirty-nine Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors OS-T d3-68, GP-H b10-2, GP-H b10-3, DG-O c6-12, QX-H b11-2, KV-F b11-1, ZT-F b12-7, ZT-F b12-6, ZT-F b12-8, FB-E b12-1, OM-J b10-1, AU-F b12-2, AU-F b12-3, AU-F b12-4, DA-E b13-8 and PS-T d3-152, Hyades Sectors EG-N b7-0, LI-K b8-3, LI-K b8-2, RO-R c4-20 and GB-N b7-5, Ceti Sector ZU-Y b1, HIPs 6694, 8924, 21099, 7338, 10168, 10414 and 20616, 19 Puppis, Arietis Sectors XJ-R b4-2 and JR-V b2-1, HR 2204, Pegasi Sectors TK-L a9-3, RE-N a8-0, OE-N a8-1 and OI-S b4-8, and Synuefe OU-D b45-1 and OU-D b45-3.
Three recaptured systems starting Recovery are HR 2204 and HIPs 7338 and 20616.
Maelstrom Leigong loses four attacks.

Targets updated at 06:40 24th August 3309
Tougeir Control 16% *17.8% — Oya 16 Ly, 10.6k strength
HIP 22496 Control 16% — Indra 22 Ly, 2967 strength
HIP 21946 Control 12% — Indra 24 Ly, 1838 strength
Montioch Control 10% *11% — Hadad 13 Ly, 26.6k strength
Kurumanit Control 8% *8.6% — Cocijo 20 Ly, 4096 strength
HIP 21261 Control 6% *6.2% — Indra 20 Ly, 4202 strength
HIP 30502 Control 6% — Hadad 14 Ly, 19.9k strength
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-1 Control 6% — Indra 29 Ly, empty, 309 strength
HIP 21008 Control 4% — Indra 23 Ly, empty, 720 strength
Mahlina Control 2% *3.4% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 3789 strength
HIP 20605 Control 2% *3.2% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 410 strength
HIP 19198 Control 2% — Thor 17 Ly, 10.7k strength
HIP 20146 Control 2% — Indra 23 Ly, empty, 641 strength

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers which can be stopped this cycle.

Week 37, 10th August 3309​

Report
Thirty-eight Alerts repelled at Col 285 Sectors AP-F b12-2, KW-M c7-31, OS-T d3-76, YY-F b12-6, RM-B b14-8, JA-G b11-3, UH-C b13-2, SH-B b14-2, UH-C b13-0 and NG-E b12-1, Ceti Sector XJ-A c18, Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93, HIPs 39468, 20527, 11111, 20899, 19157, 29596, 20491 and 20890, Hyades Sectors EQ-O b6-2, GW-W d1-88 and FB-N b7-3, Trianguli Sectors KR-W b1-4 and FL-Y b5, Aowicha, Pegasi Sectors EB-W b2-2 and DG-X c1-6, Canaharvas, Pathamon, Cephei Sector AF-A c22, Nu Guang, Fotlandjera, Isla, Tagin, Unktety, Jeng and Jementi.
Forty-three Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors KM-V d2-72, OC-V d2-80, IA-G b11-0, EA-Q c5-17, KV-F b11-2, KV-F b11-3, RW-D b12-0, RW-D b12-1, AU-F b12-0, AU-F b12-5, AU-F b12-6, AU-F b12-7, PM-J b10-1, PM-J b10-3, PM-J b10-4, VY-Q c5-2, VY-Q c5-22 and VY-Q c5-23, Trianguli Sectors EQ-Y b6, EQ-Y b5 and EQ-Y b7, Hyades Sectors JN-K b8-4 and QD-T c3-15, Arietis Sectors LM-W c1-14, MX-U c2-18, KM-W c1-14, KM-W c1-15, WJ-R b4-2, WJ-R b4-3 and WJ-R b4-4, HIPs 9016, 19501, 18776, 37906 and 39409, Kamato, Pegasi Sectors YQ-J a10-2, UF-L a9-0, MN-S b4-2 and MN-S b4-0, 68 Tauri, Ceti Sector ZE-A c14 and Omumba.
Three recaptured systems starting Recovery are Arietis Sector MX-U c2-18, Kamato and Omumba.
Maelstrom Thor loses three attacks, and Leigong loses four attacks.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

System strength statement​

308 units delivered for Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68 has completed it versus an estimated 307.98; it should be fine to proceed with any deliveries. The actual progress became 100.3506%, yielding a projected strength of 306.9, such that Control system strengths appear to be unchanged.

Operation Redacted​

Everything is as expected thus far; if a Maelstrom can attack, at least it has not overridden the usual respite interval. Timeline:

​	HIP 9016​	HIP 9709​	Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-0​
Week 37​	Evicted​	Control​	Control​
Week 38​	Respite 1​	Control​	Control​
Week 39​	Respite 2?​	Evict​	Control​
Week 40​	Respite 3?​	Respite 1​	Evict​
Week 41​	Respite 4?​	Respite 2​	Respite 1​
Week 42​	Alert?​	Respite 3​	Respite 2​

 

[RaketeMike]

May I ask this here as it completey got out of my sight after U16: are there still port defence scenarios going on anywhere at the moment ? tia

 

[Ian Doncaster]

This week also has the lowest ever number of populated Alerts - just 11

May I ask this here as it completey got out of my sight after U16: are there still port defence scenarios going on anywhere at the moment ? tia

U16 seems to have cleaned up the old CZs in former Control systems, and there's no Invasions until 31 August at the earliest, so probably not any more.

 

[RaketeMike]

Thank you! Ok, so just „normal“ AX CZs remain in Alert & Control Systems, correct?

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Thank you! Ok, so just „normal“ AX CZs remain in Alert & Control Systems, correct?

Conflict zones will be only in Control systems which are closer to us; those zones you saw in Alert systems earlier were those remnants from Control which have now been cleared away. Unfortunately the Alert systems now will have only transient signals; Non-human, Combat aftermath, AX ships and such.

Without some form of port assault scenario, and now with systems which cannot be cleared out, I wonder whether Frontier is adopting the wonderful Ian Doncaster way of thinking...

they might as well just set aside a bunch of systems as a permanent "Thargoid War nature reserve" where people can fight their AX CZs and other scenarios each week with no effect on the wider galaxy.

 

[RaketeMike]

Without some form of port assault scenario, and now with systems which cannot be cleared out, I wonder whether Frontier is adopting the wonderful Ian Doncaster way of thinking...

.. would definitely be the best solution for AX Combat focused players IMO

 

[Genar-Hofoen]

I take it there is no longer any potential for fighting happening at planet ports? It was the only thing I was interested in - and what got me my carrier with change to spare

It seems this sampling meta has been extremely effective. I wonder if FDEV knew that would happen or not when they designed the whole Thargoid invasion thing.

 

[Starsong]

I take it there is no longer any potential for fighting happening at planet ports? It was the only thing I was interested in - and what got me my carrier with change to spare

It seems this sampling meta has been extremely effective. I wonder if FDEV knew that would happen or not when they designed the whole Thargoid invasion thing.

There might be some week after next - a few hard-to-clear systems are projected to go Alert next cycle. No promises, though.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sectors OS-T d3-68, BA-P c6-16, JW-M c7-10 and GP-H b10-2, Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-2 and Arietis Sector FG-Y d66! A good, strong start with many empty Alerts gone, more being put on their way, and quite the inhabited Alert focus on M. Indra this time.

Full checks may be sporadic for the next couple of days, though V tells me that morning results should be fine if nothing combusts.

Alerts at 08:10 18th August 3309:
HIP 20485 Alert 64% *64.4% — Indra 21 Ly, 27 Ls starport, 97 Ls outpost, 35 Ls planet
HR 1403 Alert 22% *22.6% — Indra 25 Ly, 194 Ls starport
HIP 20056 Alert 14% — Indra 24 Ly, 2488 Ls outpost, 182 Ls planet
HIP 20948 Alert 10% *11.5% — Indra 24 Ly, 56k Ls planet
Vogulu Alert 10% — Hadad 21 Ly, 336 Ls starport, 471 Ls outpost, 35k Ls planet

Evictions:
HR 2204 Control 12% — Hadad 15 Ly, 12.8k strength
HIP 20616 Control 2% *2.1% — Indra 22 Ly, 3220 strength

Clean-up:
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16 Alert 64% — Hadad 20 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4 Alert 62% — Hadad 21 Ly, empty
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1 Alert 60% — Oya 20 Ly, empty

It seems this sampling meta has been extremely effective. I wonder if FDEV knew that would happen or not when they designed the whole Thargoid invasion thing.

I have given similar answers in other threads here—everything points to Research limpets being a specific vulnerability which we are supposed to identify and use prolifically:

• It was added in week 10, identified around week 16, and used by solo Commanders then very soon by Wings after that. This week is 38.
• We stopped losing inhabited systems around week 19, and more recently all empty systems are being saved as well.
• Single Research limpets were hastened to work twice as fast.
• More recently, I think the Universal multi-limpet was hastened a bit (and the Xeno multi-limpet slowed a bit, but we are using Universal of course).

Clearing we were also not winning systems quickly enough; the strength was reduced slightly twice between weeks 20–30. There was a recent mention of Alert systems perhaps having increased strength, but not confirmed.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I have given similar answers in other threads here—everything points to Research limpets being a specific vulnerability which we are supposed to identify and use prolifically:

I'm not sure that's true. Looking at the general trends in the war:
- losing about 70 systems a week up to week 16; sampling helped increase wins, but the change to the Thargoid alert budget meant that was a -10 position rather than a -50 one still
- net regaining of systems didn't start until around week 25, where there was a substantial reduction in system difficulty across the board, and it was that which really killed off invasions
- increased use of sampling from around week 30 against Alerts has almost entirely prevented invasions since

In so far as Frontier-via-Aegis-in-Galnet have given hints about strategy, it was mainly to focus on Alerts rather than Invasions, which even with sampling (and at the time the hint was given, obtaining sampling targets in an Alert was tricky, and the Orthrus was very hard to find) would have been poor long-term strategy leading to Indra-style separation of the inhabited and uninhabited shells and an increased number of populated invasions. Sampling has barely been mentioned, if at all; given the relatively small number of people doing it compared to participants in the war as a whole, you would think that if it was what you were "supposed" to do there'd at least have been some aside about "and they were really interested in the chunk of hull I tore off it" or something.

I would say more that the case is:
- the current war situation is supposed to be a human advance
- the means by which this is achieved aren't relevant to Frontier
- if heavy use of sampling hadn't been discovered, they'd just have reduced the overall targets to achieve the same outcome by other means

 

[Starsong]

Evictions:
HR 2204 Control 12% — Hadad 15 Ly, 12.8k strength

It would seem that the Imperial combat(?) forces at Omumba have now merely switched targets - and given the lesser difficulty of this system appear stand a fair chance of success mostly alone! It’ll be interesting to see how this goes.

 

[Kira Goto]

It would seem that the Imperial combat(?) forces at Omumba have now merely switched targets - and given the lesser difficulty of this system appear stand a fair chance of success mostly alone! It’ll be interesting to see how this goes.

I reckon they’ll be successful, if not after one week, then probably on the second.

Their target list for controls published on DCoH lists Vasupari as the priority target(doesn’t seem to be so closely followed), with HIP 30502, Montioch and the above HR 2204 as the others. If anyone was curious.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

It would seem that the Imperial combat(?) forces at Omumba have now merely switched targets - and given the lesser difficulty of this system appear stand a fair chance of success mostly alone! It’ll be interesting to see how this goes.

I reckon they’ll be successful, if not after one week, then probably on the second.

Indeed if Omumba can reach half that way, that amount of activity would bring HR 2204 to 95%! Of course, 66% per week would give the two-week outcome. That said, if it does well over the weekend then I would be very happy to support it when next in session; around 50% by Monday evening should become a safe completion, and around 40% by then is fine if we can rely on continued activity.

Their target list for controls published on DCoH lists Vasupari as the priority target(doesn’t seem to be so closely followed), with HIP 30502, Montioch and the above HR 2204 as the others. If anyone was curious.

That list—also including Omumba earlier—is stated more simply as all inhabited systems at M. Hadad!

• Vasupari can be evicted without assistance (~8.9k).
• HR 2204 is fine to receive impromptu assistance (~14.4k).
• HIP 30502 is best coordinated such that planned harvests occur for delivery in the same week (~21.1k).
• Monitoch is best scheduled ahead so that we can have some harvest cargo ready in advance (~29.9k).

Sampling has barely been mentioned, if at all

This part interests me a lot! I remember well how proudly the salvage-tracking was announced in Frameshift Live #24 around one week before that update at the beginning of February, the Research products falling into the salvage class of course, then indeed there has been not a mention of it since. That said, for Frontier to present that more Orthrus-hunting should occur, Frontier must have been watching the types of activity and cannot have missed the disproportionate Megaship deliveries believably.

To an extent I imagine it difficult to mention because it lacks still a reason why it would help to win a system, but mostly I imagine there is an element of having formal, official ways to suggest that more of some activity should occur but not that less of some other activity should occur. That leaves actions, inactions and how things feel generally, where their prevention of further actions in completed systems and their increases to Research rate both feel as if we are supposed to care only about winning and only about using the quickest way to do it.

The inaction while the activity (dis-)proportions are presumed known also sends a message to me, although as you say regarding the means not being part of the long-term plan, I wonder whether Frontier might misinterpret the uptake of Research as enjoying the activity over enjoying the outcome!

 

[Starsong]

Something else interesting I noticed - rather than targeting the Hadad Controls that are easiest to evict, the general push is going towards systems that are easiest and most enjoyable to defend. Both Omumba and HR 2204 have planetary ports, whereas the other three only have outposts. I’m certainly not complaing, though - the same factor is part of my own motivations in doing Control recaptures!

 

[Kira Goto]

Both Omumba and HR 2204 have planetary ports, whereas the other three only have outposts.

Call me a cynic, but seeing the relative lack of popularity of outpost CZs, holding HIP and Montioch following their (potential/eventual) recapture might prove to be rather difficult. Especially the latter, with only one week to feasibly defend.

But I’m not one to stand in the way of ambition. Or in the position to provide a (in my view) reasonable warning about that fact.