We or others should do that tonight or tomorrow. Your original plan of Mahlina would be the best option.
Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?
- Thread starter Aleks Zuno
- Start date
Understood; jumping there next, then! We have one harvest round underway in HIP 7277 which would be as well to complete, then deliver during the Carrier jump to Mahlina.
The [SNPX] ISS Nadira is placed in System Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1; buy order (930 samples) set for System Scythia. I think we can collect some 500 samples this evening, so some additional assistance would be fine.
Regarding the new system strengths I am not sure we can provide much assistance next cycle at Leigong...
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Scythia should be done now, just delivered 1109 samples. HIP 7277 was completed earlier tonight.
Great job!
We're all doing what we can given this rather knee jerk rise in workload.
Now the dust and hysteria has settled and we have had time to realistically evaluate what constitutes a good week, from the strategy side our aim has not changed. It's still to clear the unpopulated Alerts first to stop them becoming new Controls, while others take out the Controls that already exist, and thus starve the Thargoids of new territory by stopping the only two ways they can get it (that we know of).
Despite the increase, clearing the unpopulated Alerts each week is still doable and some of our allies are working on the Controls that cause them. A bit more focus on this would be nice, it doesn't need much, just a few people to do what they can when they can.
Fewer populated Alerts these days means that even with the increase we can use rescues, deliveries, salvage and AX Reacs plus Orthrus and whatever AX you can find in signal sources to good effect on the ones that do appear.
In particular, as rescues have changed again to smaller numbers of passengers per mission, Outposts are no longer an issue as the Python comes into its own again and can easily take 20 missions to get 20 mission bonuses per trip.
The few that go to Invasion can likewise be taken care of with rescues (which are at their most effective in Invasions), deliveries and AX. Sampling in Invasions works but not as well as in Alerts or Controls and never did even before any adjustments. It was maybe half as good as in Alerts and Controls.
So it's a gut punch but it could have been worse and shouldn't hold up long term strategies too much if we stay focused and organised. As long as they don't throw any more curveballs at us.
Victories in Arietis Sectors FG-Y d38 and XJ-R b4-2, Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1, HIP 7277 and Scythia!
Mahlina is discovered to have 3395 strength as Alert, which is disturbingly close to 3923 as Control; we can complete it this evening if it is still around at that time. Late completion surprises aside (of which Commanders are capable of many!), Invasions tomorrow ought to be a quite fine 2–4 including the silent HIP 116360, all with planetary ports available though potentially not all planetary attacks in the first week.
Next week from tomorrow will be also a last stand for M. Leigong in which it can be completed with enough focus on Spire siege at Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 and HIP 9180, but that need not be rushed necessarily. Note that Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 this week will be completed implicitly next week, in that scenario!
Peripheries at 06:40 29th November 3309:
One matrix system with 70% — Leigong 15 Ly
Three systems with 66% — Indra 19–20 Ly, 436–562 strength
Alerts, Wednesday caution:
HIP 21261 Alert 90% *90.8% — Indra 20 Ly, 18 Ls outpost, 285 Ls planet
Nu Guang Alert 72% — Raijin 19 Ly, 44 Ls starport, 1040 Ls outpost, 44 Ls planet
Mahlina Alert 58% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 224 Ls outpost, Peripheral system
Trailing:
HIP 18075 Alert 38% *38.5% — Thor 21 Ly, 1620 Ls outpost, 2826 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Vistnero Alert 20% — Raijin 21 Ly, 147 Ls starport, 521 Ls outpost, 147 Ls planet
HIP 20577 Alert 18% *19.2% — Indra 18 Ly, 123 Ls outpost, 169 Ls planet
Evictions:
HIP 22524 Control 86% *86.4% — Indra 20 Ly, 622 strength
Lei Hsini Control 84% *85.3% — Indra 21 Ly, 577 strength
Clean-up:
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 Matrix 70% *70.5% — Leigong 15 Ly
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 Control 66% — Indra 20 Ly, 436 strength, Peripheral system
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13 Control 66% — Indra 19 Ly, 562 strength, Peripheral system
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3 Control 66% — Indra 19 Ly, 522 strength, Peripheral system
Yesterday we measured also two more of the empty Control systems at M. Leigong after noticing that they were 9.93 Ly and 10.04 Ly, which are perfect together for narrowing the new 10 Ly junction. Viewing the periphery as a contaminant in this context, all of our new non-periphery empty Control measurements thus far are:
The 10 Ly junction is likely to be somewhere around 16400. I suspect these were raised to make room for the high empty Alert rise without becoming higher than empty Control!
That is a very important discovery, without which I would have suggested ignoring all medium-pad Alerts! We are going to finish Mahlina if it remains this evening, but let it be known that being only ~14% behind a Control strength makes it much more beneficial for a Control harvest wing to trade it for a Control system. Definitely the real value of completing such as Alert lies in the ability of those medium-pad vessels to run the now-plentiful missions!
As a related observation we found that Orthrus signals were plentiful, where nobody was without multiple signals visible at any given moment, distances notwithstanding.
Mahlina is discovered to have 3395 strength as Alert, which is disturbingly close to 3923 as Control; we can complete it this evening if it is still around at that time. Late completion surprises aside (of which Commanders are capable of many!), Invasions tomorrow ought to be a quite fine 2–4 including the silent HIP 116360, all with planetary ports available though potentially not all planetary attacks in the first week.
Next week from tomorrow will be also a last stand for M. Leigong in which it can be completed with enough focus on Spire siege at Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 and HIP 9180, but that need not be rushed necessarily. Note that Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 this week will be completed implicitly next week, in that scenario!
Peripheries at 06:40 29th November 3309:
One matrix system with 70% — Leigong 15 Ly
Three systems with 66% — Indra 19–20 Ly, 436–562 strength
Alerts, Wednesday caution:
HIP 21261 Alert 90% *90.8% — Indra 20 Ly, 18 Ls outpost, 285 Ls planet
Nu Guang Alert 72% — Raijin 19 Ly, 44 Ls starport, 1040 Ls outpost, 44 Ls planet
Mahlina Alert 58% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 224 Ls outpost, Peripheral system
Trailing:
HIP 18075 Alert 38% *38.5% — Thor 21 Ly, 1620 Ls outpost, 2826 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Vistnero Alert 20% — Raijin 21 Ly, 147 Ls starport, 521 Ls outpost, 147 Ls planet
HIP 20577 Alert 18% *19.2% — Indra 18 Ly, 123 Ls outpost, 169 Ls planet
Evictions:
HIP 22524 Control 86% *86.4% — Indra 20 Ly, 622 strength
Lei Hsini Control 84% *85.3% — Indra 21 Ly, 577 strength
Clean-up:
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 Matrix 70% *70.5% — Leigong 15 Ly
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 Control 66% — Indra 20 Ly, 436 strength, Peripheral system
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13 Control 66% — Indra 19 Ly, 562 strength, Peripheral system
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3 Control 66% — Indra 19 Ly, 522 strength, Peripheral system
Yesterday we measured also two more of the empty Control systems at M. Leigong after noticing that they were 9.93 Ly and 10.04 Ly, which are perfect together for narrowing the new 10 Ly junction. Viewing the periphery as a contaminant in this context, all of our new non-periphery empty Control measurements thus far are:
| System | Distance Ly | Prior | Minimum | Maximum | Change |
HIP 8033 | 9.279145 | 26911.0 | 37037.0 | 37044.7 | +37.66% |
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3 | 9.933224 | 13246.1 | 17766.5 | 17768.2 | +34.14% |
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-1 | 10.046085 | 11770.4 | 15818.6 | 15819.8 | +34.40% |
HIP 10118 | 15.10287 | 3060.5 | 3961.0 | 3961.2 | +29.43% |
The 10 Ly junction is likely to be somewhere around 16400. I suspect these were raised to make room for the high empty Alert rise without becoming higher than empty Control!
That is a very important discovery, without which I would have suggested ignoring all medium-pad Alerts! We are going to finish Mahlina if it remains this evening, but let it be known that being only ~14% behind a Control strength makes it much more beneficial for a Control harvest wing to trade it for a Control system. Definitely the real value of completing such as Alert lies in the ability of those medium-pad vessels to run the now-plentiful missions!
As a related observation we found that Orthrus signals were plentiful, where nobody was without multiple signals visible at any given moment, distances notwithstanding.
It's not a discovery, we've known about the value of mission bonuses for some time now. Ever since I posted our research into Alert activities months ago. It's just that back then only some missions were for small amounts of people, now they all are since U16.
Possibly having 4 of you made the difference there, but don't count on it every time. If you go on to sample after killing the Orthrus(es) you can use the freeze scout trick as well.
When solo hunting Orthrus I find there's usually at least one signal at all times (with new ones appearing either before or not long after the previous ones expire) but a lot of them are either empty or only have a probe, no matter how long you wait. Occurrences of double-Orthrus (where two jump in) do happen but not anywhere near often enough to make up for the time wasted by empty signals.
It's very hit and miss, best way is in a wing to maximise the signals and the rest is in the hands of RNGesus.
That means I recalled at least—if I may ask the converse question, which signals are you using to avoid that "feature", if any can provide targets without also system forces "helping"?
I have also an unrelated question regarding HIP 29226 next week; beyond measuring it, would you like to leave it alone for us to clear as Control the week after? It is a bridge system which makes no sense to leave unless we are retreating much further, but it seems like a such terrible burden when you have so many other systems to visit.
Notably Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-0 at M. Thor is also a bridge system next week, albeit much weaker.
The freeze trick only works in NHSS4. It's also the only one where you can guarantee NPCs will not drop in. Person 1 goes in and samples, the others in the wing can be at another signal while they do this. Then, when person 1 is almost full the others deliver what they have, reload with limpets and jump in and one of them takes aggro away from person 1. When everyone is in person 1 leaves, the scout freezes and all others there can sample it with no lost limpets.
It only works once, if person 1 drops in again they will not see the scout, and nor will anyone else who leaves and comes back.
Otherwise it is as well for a wing to drop in on one signal at a time and grab a load, then move on.
Some signal information;
NHSS 4 - Good. You get an Orthrus to kill and scouts to sample. Bad because they are Inciters which spend the most time outside limpet range of any of the scouts. Negated by sampling more than one scout or using the freeze trick.
It's also the only one where you won't get NPCs dropping in if someone leaves.
NHSS 8 - Good, you get two waves of scouts so more chance to get the one you want.
NHSS 7 - Avoid, an Interceptor appears almost every time.
NHSS 5 - Ok but also with a chance of an Interceptor.
Combat Aftermath 4 - Good. They may have a Thargoid Sensor or they may have some escape pods and black boxes. Pick up one of the escape pods or destroy the probe and wait for scouts to appear. The ones with pods are more reliable as a scout trigger.
Combt Aftermath 6 - Avoid, Interceptors are common.
From personal experience and especially when sampling solo Marauders are best to sample from as they do not stray out so far from your ship during their attack runs. They describe a tighter arc around it than other scouts. For me it goes Marauder->Berserker->Regenerator->Inciter. YMMV.
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-0 as an unpopulated alert at 18.62 Ly isn't too bad but HIP 29226 at 11 will be a bit of a nightmare. I dunno, let's see how the week goes, if we have fewer alerts overall it might be tough but not out of reach.
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Thank you! Knowing no better we were keeping to the Orthrus signals for finding Scouts, but it is well that one or two others can be used.
Mahlina is delivered and should be soon complete, hopefully easing things a bit given the adjustments this week. Alerts total next week ought to be 29–30 depending on whether M. Thor misbehaves; notably two of them ought to be the weaker Cephei Sector AF-A c21 and HIP 11111 to replace the stronger Cephei Sector BV-Y b2, where the latter is now guarded for a long time!
Mahlina is delivered and should be soon complete, hopefully easing things a bit given the adjustments this week. Alerts total next week ought to be 29–30 depending on whether M. Thor misbehaves; notably two of them ought to be the weaker Cephei Sector AF-A c21 and HIP 11111 to replace the stronger Cephei Sector BV-Y b2, where the latter is now guarded for a long time!
Merely out of curiosity, what’s the required sample count for an alert like HIP 20577 at the ~17 ly distance marker now? (Closer to 18 but still) Not exactly a number I have in my head right off the top of it.
Next cycle looks a bit more lenient though, aside from Hadad. Not many populated alerts according to the predictions on Overwatch. … and providing no funny stuff happens around Taranis, of course.
Next cycle looks a bit more lenient though, aside from Hadad. Not many populated alerts according to the predictions on Overwatch. … and providing no funny stuff happens around Taranis, of course.
We're just finishing it now, 5347.
Victories in HIPs 21261 and 20577, Mahlina and Nu Guang! Another high-strength week with thirty-seven systems, remaining still a few ahead of the new attacks.
M. Leigong is now in a very vulnerable Final Ten position; anything so much as a decent ~66% Spire siege will enable us to leave it with only one attack coming from the Matrix system HIP 9180 and maintaining the Final Ten scenario, while a strong ~80% will let us leave only HIP 9180. For every Commander attacking its Spires, be it air or ground, the M. Leigong victory pace is your decision!
After more empty Control measurements today to obtain maxima for the 15- and 20-light-year junctions, a surprisingly good fit looks to be simply:
* Extrapolating the apparent 10 Ly junction through HIP 8033 becomes 158000 at 5 Ly; this has poor accuracy though, not being a point closer to 5 Ly. Moreover, any system within 5 Ly ought to be exactly the 5 Ly junction, if that region is still a constant limit.
M. Leigong is now in a very vulnerable Final Ten position; anything so much as a decent ~66% Spire siege will enable us to leave it with only one attack coming from the Matrix system HIP 9180 and maintaining the Final Ten scenario, while a strong ~80% will let us leave only HIP 9180. For every Commander attacking its Spires, be it air or ground, the M. Leigong victory pace is your decision!
After more empty Control measurements today to obtain maxima for the 15- and 20-light-year junctions, a surprisingly good fit looks to be simply:
| Maelstrom distance | Empty Control strength |
| 5 Ly | 160000 * |
| 10 Ly | 16000 |
| 15 Ly | 4000 |
| 20 Ly | 2000 |
* Extrapolating the apparent 10 Ly junction through HIP 8033 becomes 158000 at 5 Ly; this has poor accuracy though, not being a point closer to 5 Ly. Moreover, any system within 5 Ly ought to be exactly the 5 Ly junction, if that region is still a constant limit.
Week 53, 30th November 3309
ReportTwenty-six Alerts repelled at HIPs 3006, 22265, 20397, 20712 and 21475, Cephei Sectors FB-X b1-1, AF-A c21 and WO-A b4, Pegasi Sectors JH-U b3-9, DG-X c1-6, RE-N a8-0 and LC-U b3-2, Col 285 Sectors OB-E b12-4, KW-M c7-29, SH-B b14-7, OR-B b14-4, MG-E b12-2, MG-E b12-0, BA-P c6-16, BF-E b13-0, KW-M c7-16, UN-H b11-2, WY-F b12-5 and KM-V d2-52, Holvandalla and Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1.
Three Invasions defended at HIPs 116360 and 18075, and Vistnero.
Five Control evictions at Arietis Sectors ZE-R b4-3, XJ-R b4-0 and YE-R b4-1, and HIPs 8033 and 10118.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 and HIP 9180.
The defended Invasion systems will start Recovery.
Maelstrom Leigong is depleted!
Targets updated at 06:30 7th December 3309
HIP 22524 Control 80% — Indra 20 Ly, 911 strength
Lei Hsini Control 74% — Indra 21 Ly, 1027 strength
HIP 11111 Alert 62% *62.1% — Oya 24 Ly, 2567 Ls outpost, 2474 Ls planet
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3 Control 58% — Indra 19 Ly, 1031 strength
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13 Control 58% — Indra 19 Ly, 1080 strength
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 Control 58% — Indra 20 Ly, 926 strength
HIP 20024 Alert 56% *56.8% — Thor 19 Ly, 1959 Ls outpost, 2572 Ls planet
Dhang Tzela Control 44% — Thor 19 Ly, 3939 strength
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3 Control 42% — Thor 18 Ly, 1609 strength
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1 Control 42% — Thor 19 Ly, 1401 strength
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2 Control 42% — Thor 19 Ly, 1399 strength
HIP 19046 Control 42% — Thor 18 Ly, 1576 strength
Mapon Control 28% *28.6% — Cocijo 18 Ly, 6681 strength
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-2 Control 20% — Indra 18 Ly, 2259 strength
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1 Control 20% — Indra 18 Ly, 2128 strength
HIP 32764 Control 16% — Hadad 20 Ly, 1642 strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3 Matrix 12% — Raijin 24 Ly
Iceniguari Control 12% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2373 strength
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71 Control 12% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1352 strength
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93 Control 12% — Raijin 24 Ly, 704 strength
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0 Control 12% — Raijin 27 Ly
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2 Control 12% — Raijin 24 Ly, 734 strength
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3 Control 12% — Raijin 27 Ly
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2 Control 12% — Raijin 23 Ly, 853 strength
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-5 Control 12% — Raijin 25 Ly, 536 strength
Sugalis Control 12% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2177 strength
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0 Matrix 10% *10.4% — Hadad 19 Ly
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 10% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2654 strength
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1 Control 10% — Hadad 19 Ly, 2214 strength
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6 Control 10% — Hadad 20 Ly, 1956 strength
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3 Matrix 10% — Hadad 24 Ly
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1 Control 10% — Hadad 19 Ly, 2069 strength
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2 Control 6% *6.8% — Raijin 23 Ly, 994 strength
HIP 113535 Control 4% *5.4% — Raijin 20 Ly, 4128 strength
HIP 8525 Control 4% *5.1% — Oya 18 Ly, 8684 strength
HIP 13179 Control 4% *4.3% — Oya 15 Ly, 14.4k strength
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1 Control 4% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 3940 strength
Cephei Sector AF-A c9 Control 2% *3.8% — Oya 16 Ly, 3590 strength
HIP 115162 Control 2% *3.6% — Raijin 20 Ly, 1894 strength
HIP 29226 Alert 2% *2.2% — Hadad 11 Ly
Sambaho Control 2% — Oya 15 Ly, 17.6k strength
Daruwach Control 2% — Oya 16 Ly, 13.7k strength
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109 Control 2% — Cocijo 22 Ly, 1378 strength
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 1586 strength
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-3 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 1539 strength
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 1608 strength
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-5 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 1703 strength
Notes
Maelstrom Leigong has reached a Final Ten scenario with HIP 9180.
The Alert report lists predicted attackers, and the Maelstrom maps show Control system connectivity.
Week 52, 23rd November 3309
ReportThirty Alerts repelled at Col 285 Sectors YT-F b12-6, SS-H b11-4, UN-H b11-5, LV-F b11-0, ZT-F b12-4, PM-B b14-4, UH-C b13-2, OG-E b12-1, SH-B b14-2, KW-M c7-31, RM-B b14-8 and PM-B b14-3, Cephei Sectors ZE-A c8, AV-Y b6, AF-A c22 and AV-Y b0, Obamumbo, Arietis Sectors LM-V b2-3, KM-W c1-14, WJ-R b4-2, XJ-R b4-2 and FG-Y d38, Pegasi Sectors NN-S b4-4 and QE-N a8-1, HIPs 7277, 21261 and 20577, Scythia, Mahlina and Nu Guang.
Seven Control evictions at Arietis Sectors YE-R b4-0, XJ-R b4-3 and AQ-P b5-0, HIP 9643, Akbakara, 97 i Tauri and Obassi Osaw.
Four recaptured systems starting Recovery are Akbakara, 97 i Tauri, Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 and Obassi Osaw.
Maelstrom Leigong is unable to attack.
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Already ~1.5% periphery movement at M. Leigong—did Spire siege become easier?
Additional: Either the Spires give peripheral progress more quickly, everyone had a full Mission manifest ready to turn in, or there are many very dedicated Commanders. 7.34% before Thursday evening bodes very well!
Additional: Either the Spires give peripheral progress more quickly, everyone had a full Mission manifest ready to turn in, or there are many very dedicated Commanders. 7.34% before Thursday evening bodes very well!
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Is there need for more carriers to sample/hold samples until 85% again this week?
There is a need to gather and hold payloads, although notably M. Leigong has a lighter Final Ten than the Final Twenty last week! It would be as well to announce it though, given that we have just started with HIP 8033.
Maelstrom Leigong Final Ten
Payloads must reach minimum 15% for use with a full Periphery completion, for which the Spire sites are at Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 A 4 and HIP 9180 4 b.While INIV ought to be quite fine to finish it all, by all means post if you want to gather one, or to offer a purchase order and deliver one!
| System | Distance | Strength | 15% | Held | Payload | Location | Note |
| HIP 10118 | 15.10 Ly | 3962 | 595 | 597 | 15.07% | LLV Negotiator | Delivered week 53 • Update |
| Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0 | 14.46 Ly | ~5334 | ~801 | 850 | 15.94% | [SNPX] Resolute | Delivered week 53 • Update |
| Arietis Sector YE-R b4-1 | 10.05 Ly | ~16157 | ~2424 | 2450 | 15.16% | [SNPX] ISS Nadira | Delivered week 53 • Update |
| Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3 | 9.93 Ly | ~18195 | ~2730 | 2996 | 16.47% | INV Astral Flame | Delivered week 53 • Update |
| HIP 8033 | 9.28 Ly | 37045 | 5557 | 5682 | 15.34% | INV. Light of Achenar | Delivered week 53 • Update |
All strengths except Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0 were measured directly in the latter half of week 52, where the first Final Ten is week 53. Based on those measurements, plus additional measurements in week 53 showing the 5 Ly junction to be 160000, the junctions at 10 Ly and 15 Ly appear to be at most 16270 and 4005, estimating the 5334 for the remaining strength.
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