There remains very little competition in the "spaceship flying" area, and what there is, isn't doing very well: the last major space game released was Dual Universe a couple of months back, with base building, ship interiors, space legs, player-driven economy, Open only, client-server architecture, and a whole bunch of other features Elite Dangerous has been repeatedly criticised for not having over the last 6-7 years. You might think that was a problem for Frontier but actually I think this is the first post-release mention it's got on the forum. So long as "not much competition" continues - and there's no sign that it won't in, say, the next 6-7 years - Elite Dangerous just has to remain mostly playable.
Good deduction. Checked out Dual Universe since I'd never heard of it. Seemed more like an NMS copy-cat though (with less polish) than anything in the same sphere as Elite. So your point stands. As long as there is nothing in the same ballpark, and FD churns out some new crumbs once a year at least, they should be able to attract some sporadic expansion purchases.
Since Elite 2 is still strong, better than Dangerous in some regard, the franschise can almost be considered timeless. Toddlers when ED launched can now clonk the keyboard on their own and have matured into potential customers even if the parents were not. Perhaps that's FD's gameplan with Elite; Just
stick around as long as no one else releases a title in the field. Even if they've saturated the market, generational shifts will sustain the small remaining but constant customer base organically.
Since they're running on AWS, they can cost-optimize the running cost down close to nothing with a bit of refactoring of the backend code (if even needed). A handful of ongoing PDLC sales should cover that.
Greetings Commanders & ED crew. I've been in the mix for just over a year now. I've tried most aspects of the game, stick to open play, got ganked and reprimanded two days ago for participating in the Kingfisher supply CG, and then managed to get through with two loads of goodies for the...
forums.frontier.co.uk
That is indeed good evidence that the cut-off point is still at least a year or two out. Thx!
Financial findings
To get some additional insight from a complementary angle, I looked at
the numbers.
While FD doesn't break out cost and revenue by title, they do offer some useful hints though.
Operating profit in FY22 was reduced to £1.5 million following the previously announced one-off non-cash
accounting charge following the under-performance of the major Elite Dangerous: Odyssey expansion
which released in May 2021 (FY21: £19.9 million)
... the one area of disappointment in FY22 was the lower than expected level of player
engagement with our major Elite Dangerous: Odyssey expansion. Our team did a terrific job with that very
ambitious expansion, which made the decision to cancel future console development and to focus our attention on
PC even more difficult. We are supporting and growing our Elite Dangerous player community and will build on the
narrative aspects of Elite Dangerous during FY23.
Interpretation: Elite investment was significant for FD but was a financial dud (= 92% profit drop). The fault lies with the stupid players who did not appreciate the tremendous brilliance and value the team offered. To mitigate we'll
mostly limit ourselves to adding low-cost "galnet tweets on player community events" going forward in terms of updates.
Amortisation and impairment charges for game developments and Frontier’s game technology related intangible
assets grew significantly to £33.9 million in total for the period (FY21: £14.9 million), with Elite Dangerous: Odyssey
accounting for the majority of the increase.
Amortisation charges for the Elite Dangerous: Odyssey expansion accounted for £8.4 million in FY22. Additionally,
a one-off, non-cash impairment charge of £7.4 million was recorded in FY22, which resulted from lower than
expected engagement with Elite Dangerous: Odyssey on PC following its launch in May 2021, and the decision to
cancel further console development of this major expansion.
Net research and development expenses recorded in the income statement, being gross spend, less capitalised
costs, plus amortisation and impairment charges, increased to £46.2 million in FY22 (FY21: £22.0 million). The
substantial rise reflected a combination of our increased investment in newly released and future content, together
with the large one-off, non-cash Elite Dangerous: Odyssey charge.
New games and PDLC content released in FY22 was also a factor in the year-on-year growth in the total amortisation
charge, with the launch of Jurassic World Evolution 2, three Foundry titles, and PDLC packs for Planet Zoo and
Jurassic World Evolution 2.
Interpretation: We see little future with Elite because those players don't Get It. As such we're hence going to focus almost exclusively on more run-of-the-mill genres for a different player base, since the numbers show those at least appreciate our efforts.
I do hope my interpretations are incorrect, but it doesn't look like good signs for a prolonged shelf-life of the game.