Thargoid Attacks: Where, When and What you can do about it

Makrone

Makrone
I checked Eagle Eye 3 and the corresponding Thargoid Link points at "Kramski Holding" in the system "CD-54 471".

EDIT: EE3 points at " Mel 22 Sector IS-S c4-6 ABC 2 b".
 
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Assimilator1

Assimilator1
Interesting, that Mel 22 system is where Thargoid Structure 127 is located.
Why would EE point to that? [edit] Nm, just remembered that EEs listen in on TSs for their info.
 
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Factabulous

Factabulous
Eagle Eye this week:

EE3 mel 22 sector is-s c4-6 abc 2 b
* Merope - Bugged - TL not pointing to target
* CD-54 471 Kramski Holding
EE4 mel 22 sector jc v d2 14 a 4 aa
* Pleiades Sector IH-V c2-16 Bugged - TL not pointing to target
* Ngaiawang - Dornier Terminal
EE5 mel 22 sector io b11 1 a (should be io-g)
* Pleiades Sector JC-U b3-2 Bugged - TL not pointing to target
* Brib - Dominique Holdings

Three targets again: CD-54 471, Ngaiawang and Brib
 

Arkadi

Arkadi
Brib is swarming with scouts. Lot's of NHSS 4. Having fun in my chief.

edit: just talked to a dedicated Imperial commander in Brib. He had no idea this system was under Thargoid attack. I wonder why the Eagle Eye news have vanished from GalNet?!
 
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TheOriginalB

TheOriginalB
Looks like we lost Kaiser Terminal in Wayutubal and Barmin Dock in Iota Pictoris A
Spotted a Hydra in Ngaiawang, and there are wrecked megaships in both Ngaiawang and Brib.
 

Factabulous

Factabulous
Arkadi said:
edit: just talked to a dedicated Imperial commander in Brib. He had no idea this system was under Thargoid attack. I wonder why the Eagle Eye news have vanished from GalNet?!
Click to expand...

Well, I only posted this week's targets ab hour or so ago ;)

Not sure why you mention EE and Galnet - they are rarely in there, dumb galnet
 

Arkadi

Arkadi
Factabulous said:
Well, I only posted this week's targets ab hour or so ago ;)

Not sure why you mention EE and Galnet - they are rarely in there, dumb galnet
Click to expand...

Well, when I think about it, maybe we need the secrecy or else the Thargs would shut off our happy Eagle Eye.

Nothing better but spreading the word from Cmdr to Cmdr in game.

edit: and thank you for keeping up the effort on the Thargoid target prediction [cool]
 

jasonbirder

J
Looks like we lost Kaiser Terminal in Wayutubal and Barmin Dock in Iota Pictoris A
Click to expand...

Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly or does this signal another change in the algorithm FDev uses to determine the attacked System Status?
I'd have thought Wayutabal was safe and only Iota Pictoris A was going to be damaged last week...
 

Factabulous

Factabulous
jasonbirder said:
Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly or does this signal another change in the algorithm FDev uses to determine the attacked System Status?
I'd have thought Wayutabal was safe and only Iota Pictoris A was going to be damaged last week...
Click to expand...

Those stats are obviously useless.

They're based off an (optional) plugin for EDMC. EDMC provides data to EDSM.

Compare the EDSM & in-game traffic figures (for the system I happen to be in right now):

In-game 32:
fwujAJI.png


EDSM 4:
cEf3WSS.png


So - even if ALL the data in EDSM was coming from EDMC (it is not) then EDMC can 'see' 4/32 ships - That's 12.5%. And is actually quite high, typically I see <1% of the traffic in EDSM.

Then - the USS Plugin is optional in EDMC, so that again reduces the number of data points - no idea how many people install that plugin, but if we're very generous and say 10% of EDMC users then we end up with 10% of 12.5% - which means the charts & graphs are based on 1.25% of CMDRS (this is a generous estimate).

So that means nearly 99% of CMDRs in the target systems are not having their kills tracked - and that is a best case.

So when people say 'we need 4000 kills to save a system' that is for that 1% of instrumented users.

So if we assume that actual target is 7000 (that a number just as an example I am not saying that is the target)

If each of the 99% kills only 100th of the Thargoids that the 1% kill - they will kill 0.01 * 4000 * 0.99 / 0.01 = 3960. Adding the kills from the 1% (4000) to the kills from the 99% (3960) we get 7960, so we win the system - yay!

If next week the 99% get bored and only kill 200th of the Thargoids that the 1% kill - they will kill 0.005 * 4000 * 0.99 / 0.01 = 1980. Adding this to the 4000 from the 1% we get 5980 kills total, so the system is lost, despite the same number of kills from the 1%.

The only way those stats can tell you who won is if you kill enough so that it doesn't matter what the 99% did - but that means complete overkill.

Use the stats for top 10's and motivations, but using them to say a system is 'safe' is flawed.

Anyway, I look forward to seeing the same questions next week ;)
 

jasonbirder

J
I HEAR what you're saying...and whilst we've been tracking kills across Platforms and capturing as much data from different player groups etc I'm aware that we'll only ever get a % of them...My point is that as we've a reasonably large and representative sample - so you would imagine our subset of the data would be roughly the same week by week (whether its 1%, 10% or 50%)...so even given our incomplete datapoints it still feels like the "threshold numbers" are going up week by week (at least recently anyway)

Its not asking the same question...week on week because unless I'm missing something we don't seem to be having conversations about what those thresholds are, how they change - or perhaps MOST importantly how we can "unpick" the wiring and work out what we NEED to do - the algorithm FDev uses for failure/success...

We assume Interceptor Kills count the same as Scouts...is that true?
Is it a cumulative total, system by system or a calculus based on both?
What do the Thresholds look like in the Interceptor Only systems (I appreciate the Hydra only system was obviously a "kobyashi maru scenario) but whilst we failed at Flech...was there ever a realistic number of Basilisks we could have targeted?
Loads of stuff that would be beneficial for people to know...

If this kind of info is common knowledge - fairy snuff...my apologies...where do I go so i'm not "bothering" this thread with dozy questions :)
 

Arkadi

Arkadi
discocat said:
I'd say there were in the way or too close to where they wanted to operate, so they blow them up.
Click to expand...

In Brib the ship log of the attacked transporter says that someone managed to take "one of those things" on board - persumably Tharg Sensors or something similar.

Still Thargoids started to invade our space with their probes and communication is failing until today. So what? I am not going to yield, just because we happen to be in the way of the Thargoid hyper-space-way or what ever.
 
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