We need a new system strength review, following what appears to be another reduction! The INIV evictions were averaging less than 2% over the requirement in the latter half of week 27 and in almost all of week 28, most of which was a deliberate inclusion of just a few additional units over the estimate. We had one quite interesting outlier—HIP 28913, which we overdid a bit anyway due to the excess samples not changing the number of journeys, but its estimate was still several percent above its reality. The specific overestimate turns out to be
very interesting!
In week 29 thus far,
all of our estimates have been too high by around 5–8%. Luckily, the targets in question happen to give a good updated view! I want more than anything to use a logarithmic scale here, however this would serve ill the linear nature of the 5-light-year junctions, so I will narrow the distance ranges a bit to help show what is occurring. Throughout, the
Red markers are from update 15.01, the
Green markers are from week 29, and any smaller unmarked range indicators are update 15.02 prior to week 29 (that is to say, some time amid week 27).
Unpopulated system strength, 25–50 Ly:
We lack new data in the 30–35 Ly range, however in its absence there is little reason to suspect that it fails to follow the same shape as with the previous unpopulated system strength. At some point it now drops below 300, and the new point of mostly-flattening at 30 Ly appears to be 307–308 strength as indicated by the 25–30 Ly line.
Unpopulated system strength, 20–35 Ly:
Once again, the most clear indication that we are dealing with 5-light-year junctions at all is how the strength measurements not only fall into linear segments, but critically they also point to the same junctions from both sides (463–468 stength at 25 Ly). Of elevated interest here is the unmarked result at 25.43 Ly, 451 strength; this was HIP 28913, the system we overestimated during week 28, and with this hindsight it fell exactly onto the new line predicted by
other results from week 29. The strength change occurred prior to the cycle ending!
Unpopulated system strength, 15–30 Ly:
As before, we have only one new result thus far in the 15–20 Ly range so please consider that line to be an extrapolation, provided if one agrees with the inferred rules around 5-light-year junctions and linear segments and needs at least an approximate estimate. The upper arm points to a 20 Ly junction at around 1077 strength, and projecting that through Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 alone gives a loose 15 Ly junction at around 3053 strength.
We have no new inhabited system data at present, where our most-recent drops were at Paitra and Wogaiawong in week 28, but again it will be likely to see a reduction there also!