Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Victories in Col 285 Sectors GQ-O c6-22, KW-M c7-17, TH-B b14-5, VS-Z b14-1 and VS-Z b14-5, and Desurinbin!

Evictions at 19:20 17th June 3309:
HIP 11111 Control 44% *44.2%Oya 24 Ly, warranted by SNPX
Njana Control 28% *29.8%Cocijo 26 Ly
HIP 30158 Control 14% *15.5%Hadad 21 Ly

Alerts:
Minawara Alert 98% — Oya 23 Ly, 412 Ls outpost, 412 Ls planet, warranted by SNPX
Khwal Alert 82% *82.5%Cocijo 22 Ly, 67 Ls outpost, 89 Ls planet
Vogulu Alert 52% *53.6%Hadad 21 Ly, 336 Ls starport, 471 Ls outpost, 35k Ls planet
HR 1403 Alert 44% *44.3%Indra 25 Ly, 194 Ls starport, 194 Ls planet
Vukurbeh Alert 38% *39.5%Taranis 24 Ly, 265 Ls starport, 468 Ls outpost, 1737 Ls planet
69 Upsilon Tauri Alert 32% — Indra 26 Ly, 3628 Ls starport, 3697 Ls outpost, 1474 Ls planet
Lahua Alert 28% — Oya 19 Ly, 10 Ls outpost, 19 Ls planet, warranted by SNPX

Clean-up:
Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 Control 98% *99.2%Oya 24 Ly, empty, warranted by SNPX
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0 Alert 18% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty
HR 1107 Control 16% *17.3%Oya 18 Ly, empty


If I can get it off the ground, Sampling project AXIward this week would be over in Raijin, blocking Kuruma as an alert based on the Narwhal projections - total effort should be about a quarter of what 25679 took. But, I'll have to see how many people are willing to use a research limpet again between last week and the titan CG ongoing x)

Indeed the indefensibility of Kuruma makes that a quite good choice; as with last cycle, I am quite sure that I can offer some help later if it falls a bit short. You are looking at 2690 for Tagin and 979 for Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6, which should be quite manageable whatever happens!


Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 is one of mine (Warriors of Wyrd)

Good job there; it seems to be going quite well! It was on the SNPX list earlier so I had it labelled to help avoid possible duplicate activity, but otherwise it is fine to complete such and I am quite sure it will result in more time afforded for another system elsewhere.
 
Good job there; it seems to be going quite well! It was on the SNPX list earlier so I had it labelled to help avoid possible duplicate activity, but otherwise it is fine to complete such and I am quite sure it will result in more time afforded for another system elsewhere.
It's working quite well coordinating through the Oya channel on the DCoH channel. They do most of the heavy lifting.
 
Victories in Minawara, Khwal, Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4, Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 and HR 1107 (good job @PapaDragon_I)! Seventeen populated Alerts remain with a projected completion rate which leaves only four or five, noting that it would be quite well for ten to reach Invasion. M. Hadad loses one Alert next cycle, to go along with the four which M. Thor will not be starting!

Evictions at 08:20 18th June 3309:
HIP 11111 Control 46% *46.6%Oya 24 Ly, warranted by SNPX
Njana Control 36% *36.4%Cocijo 26 Ly
HIP 30158 Control 16% *17.6%Hadad 21 Ly

Alerts:
Vogulu Alert 72% *72.4%Hadad 21 Ly, 336 Ls starport, 35k Ls outpost, 35k Ls planet
HR 1403 Alert 56% *56.1%Indra 25 Ly, 194 Ls starport, 194 Ls planet
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2 Alert 52% *53.5%Cocijo 26 Ly, 2174 Ls planet
Vukurbeh Alert 50% *51.8%Taranis 24 Ly, 265 Ls starport, 468 Ls outpost, 1737 Ls planet
Lahua Alert 46% *47.1%Oya 19 Ly, 10 Ls outpost, 19 Ls planet, warranted by SNPX
69 Upsilon Tauri Alert 46% *46.9%Indra 26 Ly, 3628 Ls starport, 3697 Ls outpost, 1474 Ls planet

Clean-up:
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0 Alert 78% *78.7%Raijin 27 Ly, empty
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1 Control 12% — Oya 22 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-4 Alert 8% — Thor 44 Ly, empty
 
We need a new system strength review, following what appears to be another reduction! The INIV evictions were averaging less than 2% over the requirement in the latter half of week 27 and in almost all of week 28, most of which was a deliberate inclusion of just a few additional units over the estimate. We had one quite interesting outlier—HIP 28913, which we overdid a bit anyway due to the excess samples not changing the number of journeys, but its estimate was still several percent above its reality. The specific overestimate turns out to be very interesting!

In week 29 thus far, all of our estimates have been too high by around 5–8%. Luckily, the targets in question happen to give a good updated view! I want more than anything to use a logarithmic scale here, however this would serve ill the linear nature of the 5-light-year junctions, so I will narrow the distance ranges a bit to help show what is occurring. Throughout, the Red markers are from update 15.01, the Green markers are from week 29, and any smaller unmarked range indicators are update 15.02 prior to week 29 (that is to say, some time amid week 27).

Unpopulated system strength, 25–50 Ly:​

Week 29 U 25-50.png

We lack new data in the 30–35 Ly range, however in its absence there is little reason to suspect that it fails to follow the same shape as with the previous unpopulated system strength. At some point it now drops below 300, and the new point of mostly-flattening at 30 Ly appears to be 307–308 strength as indicated by the 25–30 Ly line.

Unpopulated system strength, 20–35 Ly:​

Week 29 U 20-35.png

Once again, the most clear indication that we are dealing with 5-light-year junctions at all is how the strength measurements not only fall into linear segments, but critically they also point to the same junctions from both sides (463–468 stength at 25 Ly). Of elevated interest here is the unmarked result at 25.43 Ly, 451 strength; this was HIP 28913, the system we overestimated during week 28, and with this hindsight it fell exactly onto the new line predicted by other results from week 29. The strength change occurred prior to the cycle ending!

Unpopulated system strength, 15–30 Ly:​

Week 29 U 15-30.png

As before, we have only one new result thus far in the 15–20 Ly range so please consider that line to be an extrapolation, provided if one agrees with the inferred rules around 5-light-year junctions and linear segments and needs at least an approximate estimate. The upper arm points to a 20 Ly junction at around 1077 strength, and projecting that through Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 alone gives a loose 15 Ly junction at around 3053 strength.

We have no new inhabited system data at present, where our most-recent drops were at Paitra and Wogaiawong in week 28, but again it will be likely to see a reduction there also!
 
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Small update from Kuruma Prevention efforts - gathered 612-odd samples myself, someone took 398-odd manually, starting deliveries now - Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6 should be more than sorted. Got several days to take down Tagin from there, things looking good on that front.

-- Deliveries complete approx 19:11UTC. seeing how it goes from here.
 
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I am afraid that our plan, letting Gliese 9035 go to invation will not work... Progress is already at 42%. I don't know who is working there, but he / she / they seem not to know our plan or just don't care...
 
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Small update from Kuruma Prevention efforts - gathered 612-odd samples myself, someone took 398-odd manually, starting deliveries now - Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6 should be more than sorted. Got several days to take down Tagin from there, things looking good on that front.

-- Deliveries complete approx 19:11UTC. seeing how it goes from here.

Looking quite good at 90%! Often those updates can be spread across two hours if the Megaship staff took stock while delivery was in progress, but either way I would proceed with Tagin and fix any deficit later.


I am afraid that our plan, letting Gliese 9035 go to invation will not work... Progress is already at 42%. I don't know who is working there, but he / she / they seem not to know our plan or just don't care...
Ah well. At least you’re saving your sampling efforts for Control systems that can’t be saved any other way.

Very much so! If Gliese 9035 reaches completion, or even comes appreciably close to completion, you know that you have a reliable source of extra activity if there remain systems where it can be applied. There is something to be said for giving a system a good activity push to bring it to the top of the Thargoid War information panel!
 
Turned out it just took a little longer than expected - in the end 612 delivered by me, 613 direct delivered from DCoH's info - between that and a couple of hundred kills, total warprogress ended as 1.062250 - but, numbers there are less ironclad, that's just what we had logged - anyone who doesn't use dcoh, anyone else using carriers etc. could see it vary.

Will see how Tagin goes - pace may vary due to weekdays - and guess we'll see if the mystery partner is on the same mission.
1687120819876.png
 
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Jeng should be done - we collected aprox 2.800 samples this evening. Selling is Ross 112 in planned for tomorrow. SNPX will switch target to HIP 21386, as Lahua is nearly done and HIP 11111 in care of another pilot / squadron. WOW / deanom is working on Cephei Sector AV-Y b0.
 
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In week 29 thus far, all of our estimates have been too high by around 5–8%. Luckily, the targets in question happen to give a good updated view! I want more than anything to use a logarithmic scale here, however this would serve ill the linear nature of the 5-light-year junctions, so I will narrow the distance ranges a bit to help show what is occurring. Throughout, the Red markers are from update 15.01, the Green markers are from week 29, and any smaller unmarked range indicators are update 15.02 prior to week 29 (that is to say, some time amid week 27).

As before, we have only one new result thus far in the 15–20 Ly range so please consider that line to be an extrapolation, provided if one agrees with the inferred rules around 5-light-year junctions and linear segments and needs at least an approximate estimate. The upper arm points to a 20 Ly junction at around 1077 strength, and projecting that through Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 alone gives a loose 15 Ly junction at around 3053 strength.

We have no new inhabited system data at present, where our most-recent drops were at Paitra and Wogaiawong in week 28, but again it will be likely to see a reduction there also!
That matches what i've been finding. The new graphs will be useful. Thanks
 
Jeng should be done - we collected aprox 2.800 samples this evening. Selling is Ross 112 is planned for tomorrow. SNPX will switch target to HIP 21386, as Lahua is nearly done and HIP 11111 in care of another pilot / squadron. WOW / deanom is working on Cephei Sector AV-Y b0.
Just finishing off Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1 first. Should be done tonight.
 
Victories in Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6 (well done @Grimscrub), Vogulu, Col 285 Sectors UD-G b12-2 and DA-E b13-3, and Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1 (well done @deanom59)!

As a reminder for those who enjoy port defence, the system 65 Kappa Tauri has unofficial port conflicts, including planetary! The minor no-fire zone fines can be cleared at the port, and be careful not to explode with fines present. On the eviction front, I believe HIP 11111, Njana and Tagin have backers, although I am sure that a little extra progress at those would be well-received!

Alert pretending to be Invasion:
65 Kappa Tauri Alert 20% — Indra 25 Ly, 71k Ls starport with CZ, 72k Ls planet with CZ

Alerts:
Lahua Alert 88% — Oya 19 Ly, 10 Ls outpost, 19 Ls planet
Vukurbeh Alert 84% *84.8%Taranis 24 Ly, 265 Ls starport, 468 Ls outpost, 1737 Ls planet
HR 1403 Alert 70% — Indra 25 Ly, 194 Ls starport, 194 Ls planet
69 Upsilon Tauri Alert 62% *62.4%Indra 26 Ly, 3628 Ls starport, 3697 Ls outpost, 1474 Ls planet
Gliese 9035 Alert 46% — Oya 20 Ly, 556 Ls planet, Invasion requested by SNPX
Pentam Alert 40% *40.8%Taranis 29 Ly, 214 Ls outpost, 66 Ls planet
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5 Alert 40% *40.7%Cocijo 26 Ly, 471 Ls planet

Evictions at 07:30 19th June 3309:
HIP 11111 Control 72% *72.5%Oya 24 Ly
Njana Control 44% *45.2%Cocijo 26 Ly
HIP 30158 Control 22% *23.2%Hadad 21 Ly
Chibis Control 14% *14.1%Cocijo 25 Ly
Tagin Control 6% *7.1%Raijin 23 Ly
HIP 20056 Control 6% *6.5%Indra 24 Ly

Clean-up:
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0 Alert 82% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty
HIP 39186 Control 50% — Cocijo 34 Ly, empty
 
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Victories in Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0, Lahua, Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73, Jeng, Vukurbeh and Gliese 9035! Fourteen inhabited Alerts remain, and we seem to be on-course for completing another four or five, which should serve quite well for Invasion purposes.

We want to help the silent effort at HIP 30158 to completion this time; it will be due a nice push this evening for completion later, hopefully with enough time remaining to help any other ongoing eviction projects if needed!

Evictions at 17:50 19th June 3309:
HIP 11111 Control 86% *87.8%Oya 24 Ly
Njana Control 58% — Cocijo 26 Ly
HIP 30158 Control 24% *24.1%Hadad 21 Ly
Chibis Control 14% *14.6%Cocijo 25 Ly
Tagin Control 10% *10.7%Raijin 23 Ly

Alerts:
HR 1403 Alert 78% *79.3%Indra 25 Ly, 194 Ls starport, 194 Ls planet
69 Upsilon Tauri Alert 72% *73.5%Indra 26 Ly, 3628 Ls starport, 3697 Ls outpost, 1474 Ls planet
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5 Alert 48% — Cocijo 26 Ly, 471 Ls planet
Pentam Alert 46% — Taranis 29 Ly, 214 Ls outpost, 66 Ls planet
Namayu Alert 34% — Taranis 27 Ly, 374 Ls outpost, 255 Ls planet

Clean-up:
HIP 39186 Control 56% — Cocijo 34 Ly, empty
 
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